Currency Comments following the Budget 24th March 2011
Sterling fell by 0.8% against the US dollar yesterday as Chancellor George Osborne lowered the estimate for UK economic growth to 1.7% this year from a previous forecast of 2.1%. Inflation is also expected to remain between 4% and 5% which raises the possibility that we could be looking at a period of “stagflation”. Heading into yesterday, sterling had been buoyed by higher than expected inflation and an anticipation of an earlier than expected interest rate hike. However, the Bank of England minutes showed no changes to last month’s voting and the Budget delivered a downgraded growth forecast – both of which contributed to sterling’s drop. Retail sales data released this morning has also come in worse than expected.
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