Call Free Phone Now:0808 163 0102
Outside the UK: +(44) 207 898 0541 Request a Call Back
 
  Daily Currency News Euro US Dollar Educational Articles  
 
Posted January 29th, 2010 by Charles Purdy

Currency Rates

EURO/GBP – 1.156
US$/GBP – 1.615
CHF/GBP – 1.697
CAN/GBP – $1.718
AUS$/GBP – 1.807

Comments: Sterling hit the €1.16/£1 level for a short time yesterday but slid below US$1.61/£1 against the US dollar. A report out first thing this morning showed that UK house prices gained for a fourth consecutive month, rising 7.3% from the previous year. Whilst this may seem positive, many commentators believe that the rise is due to a lack of supply (lack of new builds and sellers reluctant to sell at discounted prices) rather than a boom in demand. Overall though, sterling continues to benefit from being a more attractive place to invest than the euro zone as fears continue over Greece and the deficit.

Euro zone unemployment came in at a record high of 10.1% which caused the currency to weaken against sterling. In addition, whilst Greece managed to borrow almost €20bn at the start of the week through a bond issue, rumours were circulating that Greece had attempted to sell large amounts of the debt to China. This was cause for concern as it would in effect be an indirect ‘bailout’ by another country and would point to desperation from the Greek government. China naturally steered clear citing distrust of the true economic figures – an issue which is compounding Greece’s problems. Bloomberg stated than an alleged culture of bribery and tax evasion in the country will further affect the economy as the tax increases that are needed will not be as effective.

Stating that – now is a good time to consider buying euros as it hit a 5 month high (yesterday) and there’s not much on the horizon to push it higher. Give your Smart Trader a ring to discuss further.

Globally, stock markets fell yesterday after higher than expected US unemployment and losses at several major technology companies dented expectations of recovery. This risk aversion strengthened the US dollar and Japanese yen (both ‘safe haven’ currencies). The big news today is the US GDP figure and this is expected to be relatively strong despite the Fed remaining cautious over it’s growth expectations for the country – either way we are likely to see some volatility.

So – is now a good time to buy? Well – anything above 1.60 is quite good given the fact that expectation suggest it should be in the 1.50’s so now’s a good time to consider buying dollars. Give your Smart Trader a ring for more information on the US dollar.

Elsewhere, New Zealand’s trade deficit dropped to the lowest level for 7 years. The figures suggested that this was due to lower domestic demand rather than anything external. In Australia, loans to the private sector jumped by 1.5% unexpectedly. However, the market remained unconvinced that this will lead to a rate rise next month.

The Australian dollar could go either way so it might be good to wait until we see what happens when the interest rate announcement is made.

Remember to minimise the chance of losing money due to adverse movements in the markets by speaking to a currency specialist as early as possible. Call 0207 898 0541 or email Carl@SmartCurrencyExchange.com

Note: All rates are mid market inter bank and indicative at the point of publication.

To get an initial estimate of the cost of a property simply DIVIDE the price of the property by the appropriate currency rate noted above.

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.

Posted January 28th, 2010 by Charles Purdy

Currency Rates

EURO/GBP – 1.158
US$/GBP – 1.626
CHF/GBP – 1.707
CAN$/GBP – 1.719
AUS$/GBP – 1.799

Comments: Sterling had a relatively positive day yesterday after the uninspiring UK GDP data released on Tuesday. This was driven mainly by Bank of England policy maker Andrew Sentance stating that the economic recovery had started earlier and may have been stronger than the figures suggested. He expects the economy to avoid further contraction as emergency stimulus continues to feed into the real economy and suggested the BOE will need to raise interest rates this year. Despite a relatively slow recovery in the UK, sterling’s performance suggests that the UK is still the preferred destination for investment over the Euro zone. There is no UK data out today as focus shifts to European data.

In the Euro zone, German inflation data was surprisingly poor which added to losses against sterling. German unemployment data is expected to show a slight improvement today and European consumer confidence is expected to show marginal improvement. Concerns still remain over Greece’s 14% deficit which will limit any positive sentiment released today.
In the USA, the Fed voted to keep interest rates unchanged at 0 – 0.25% which was widely expected and new home sales dropped by 7% to a new record low. However, the interest rate decision was not unanimous and one member felt that the exceptionally low rates were no longer warranted. US unemployment data is expected later this afternoon that is expected to show an improvement of the labour market.

Elsewhere, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to leave the country’s interest rate unchanged later this evening after slightly weaker 3rd Quarter GDP figures seen in December.
Remember to minimise the chance of losing money due to adverse movements in the markets by speaking to a currency specialist as early as possible.

Note: All rates are mid market inter bank and indicative at the point of publication.

To get an initial estimate of the cost of a property simply DIVIDE the price of the property by the appropriate currency rate noted above.

Posted January 27th, 2010 by Charles Purdy

Currency Rates

EURO/GBP – 1.150
US$/GBP – 1.617
CHF/GBP – 1.692
CAN$/GBP – 1.721
AUS$/GBP – 1.800

Comments: Whilst the UK delivered positive growth for the first time in nearly 2 years, this growth came in disappointingly lower than expected. With forecasts for at least 0.4%, the news that the economy had expanded at 0.1% clearly shows that the economy is struggling to recover at any momentum. After talk of recovery over the last few weeks, investors have to assess the risk of a renewed downturn. It is worth noting that the third quarter figures (which were similarly poor) have been revised upwards ever since their release, so we may see a similar situation here – but that doesn’t help repair the damage done to sentiment surrounding sterling. After dropping by a cent against the euro and US dollar sterling has rallied slightly this morning. Investors will be keeping a keen eye on the CBI’s trade data released today to see what impact poor weather and a VAT hike has on the outlook.

In the Euro zone, German business confidence reached an 18 month high and Greece raised around €8bn in government bonds. However, Greece has had to pay a high interest rate on the debt as it is still seen as a risk. This is at the back of the minds of investors and is compounded by the fact that German inflation data came in a lot worse than expected this morning and still demonstrates the fragility of the recovery and has contributed to the euro’s decline against sterling this morning.

In the USA, all eyes are on the Fed’s interest rate decision. This is expected to remain the same, but the financial markets will be alert to any significant changes in policy at the press release after the announcement. New homes sales data is expected to show a rise, but given the record fall of existing homes in December today’s data may surprise. President Obama delivers the State of the Union address tonight – given his current track record, this has the potential to move markets.

Elsewhere, Japan’s credit rating was downgraded by Standard and Poor’s credit rating agency highlighting the need for the economy to rein in spending and raise taxes. The Australian dollar rose as inflation data came in better than expected.

Remember to minimise the chance of losing money due to adverse movements in the markets by speaking to a currency specialist as early as possible.

Note: All rates are mid market inter bank and indicative at the point of publication.

To get an initial estimate of the cost of a property simply DIVIDE the price of the property by the appropriate currency rate noted above.

Posted January 26th, 2010 by Charles Purdy

Currency Rates

EURO/GBP – 1.150
US$/GBP – 1.622
CHF/GBP – 1.693
CAN$/GBP – 1.722
AUS$/GBP – 1.808

Comments: Sterling had a quiet day yesterday as the markets await today’s gross domestic product figures for the final quarter of 2009. These figures show how the United Kingdom economy has been growing [or not]. The expectation is that after seven quarters of shrinking the 4th quarter should show the economy growing. The United Kingdom lags the rest of the worlds developed economies but hopefully better late than never if growth returns.

There was some positive news at the start of yesterday for the euro as Greece managed to raise funds on the bond market. But this was short lived and we saw the euro lose ground against sterling slowly but surely during the course of the day as the markets assessed this as only the start of the process for Greece. We also had Portugal raising concerns as the minority government is struggling to put through the necessary changes to their fiscal budget required to rebalance their economy.

In the United States we had disappointing home resale figures for December which wasn’t wholly unexpected given the expiration of the first time homebuyer tax credit incentive [which has since been extended]. Given this and the bank clampdown being instigated by the President this has led to concerns over the US recovery.

Commodity backed currencies were helped by a stabilising of commodity prices following last weeks sharp falls.

Remember to minimise the chance of losing money due to adverse movements in the markets by speaking to a currency specialist as early as possible.

Note: All rates are mid market inter bank and indicative at the point of publication.
To get an initial estimate of the cost of a property simply DIVIDE the price of the property by the appropriate currency rate noted above.

Posted January 25th, 2010 by Charles Purdy

Currency Rates

EURO/GBP – 1.141
US$/GBP – 1.616
CHF/GBP – 1.682
CAN$/GBP – 1.708
AUS$/GBP – 1.784

Comments: Despite global stock markets suffering towards the end of last week over concerns that Barack Obama’s hard line stance on bank regulation would stifle the recovery, sterling held up relatively well. Traditionally over the last few months, sterling would have weakened as investors bought into the ‘safe’ US dollar. This is encouraging, however the market might be waiting to see the outcome of this week’s biggest UK news – the GDP growth figures for the 4th Quarter of 2009. This is expected to rise marginally for the first time in seven quarters, and despite a rise already being expected, it is likely to pose the biggest risk for sterling this week. In addition, on Wednesday, the first retail sales data for January is released. With December’s unexpected rise in retail sales attributed to consumers bringing ‘big ticket’ purchases forward ahead of the VAT increase, this week’s figures are expected to show a decline as a result.

German consumer sentiment fell for the second consecutive month this morning as expiring government funding supporting the labour market sees many expecting the German economy to shed 15,000 jobs this month when the data is released on Thursday – the most since March. Aside from this, there is Euro zone unemployment and inflation data released on Friday.

In early trading in Asia, the US dollar dropped off slightly against major currencies as investor risk aversion calmed over the weekend. This was helped by assurances that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will be confirmed for a second term in office – easing concerns over the leadership of the central bank that surfaced last week. On Friday, the US GDP growth figures are released. The consensus is for a 4.6% rise, with some analysts expecting a jump of over 5%. Housing data out today is expected to be mixed – with existing home sales expected to drop and new home sales expected to rise.

Elsewhere, Australia’s wholesale price inflation data came in worse than expected. This may see amended expectations of interest rate hikes at the next meeting of the Australian central bank in February.

The general theme suggests that if you have payments to make in other currencies, there is a high chance of volatility this week – with US and UK GDP figures out. Sterling may outperform, but at the same time it may suffer – especially if US data outperforms expectations. Therefore, remember to minimise the chance of losing money due to adverse movements in the markets by speaking to a currency specialist as early as possible.

Note: All rates are mid market inter bank and indicative at the point of publication.

To get an initial estimate of the cost of a property simply DIVIDE the price of the property by the appropriate currency rate noted above.

Posted January 22nd, 2010 by Charles Purdy


Currency Rates

EURO/GBP – 1.146
US$/GBP – 1.622
CHF/GBP – 1.685
CAN$/GBP – 1.699
AUS$/GBP – 1.788

Comments: After a volatile few days on the currency markets, yesterday was much quieter as traders digested the stream of positive data that caused sterling to jump over the last few days. Sterling did slide slightly against euro, but that was due to profit taking by investors more than negative data. Looking ahead to today, monthly retail sales figures are released for December which are expected to show a modest increase. Whilst this can be attributed somewhat to consumers purchasing more expensive items before the rise in VAT took effect, it still should have a positive impact ahead of the first estimate of the UK’s growth for the 4th quarter of 2009 – figures that are released on Tuesday. However if it comes in less than expected, it is likely to put an end to the current rally for now.

In the Euro zone, the Greek finance minister George Provopoulos has stated that Greece will not be leaving the single currency despite the “extremely serious” issues facing the economy over the country’s budget deficit. The problem with Greece is still there and so far there has been a lot of rhetoric and little decisive action, and as a result this is likely to continue to put downward pressure on the euro as investors look for more attractive options. There is little meaningful data out from the region today.

In the US, the US dollar strengthened slightly against sterling after a decrease in investor risk appetite following a move by China and now the US Government to regulate and restrict the money markets. This is a concern because it comes at a time when most Governments worldwide are looking at pulling back the emergency funding and additional over-regulation or restriction could snub out recovery growth and discourage investment. This will be a major issue over the next year and we will have to wait and see how it pans out.

Elsewhere, despite Chinese central bank chief Zhou Xiachuan stating that the bank would not attempt to cool the pace of Chinese growth, the commodity currencies suffered over concerns that Chinese regulation would curb demand for commodities going forward.

Note: All rates are mid market inter bank and indicative at the point of publication.

Posted January 21st, 2010 by Charles Purdy

Currency Rates

EURO/GBP – 1.149
US$/GBP – 1.616
CHF/GBP – 1.693
CAN$/GBP – 1.698
AUS$/GBP – 1.776

Comments: Sterling rose yesterday again and breached the €1.15/£1 level for the first time since August as unemployment figures came in far better than expectations. The number of unemployment claims dropped by 15,000 against an expected drop of 3,000 and the rate of employment unexpectedly dropped to 7.8%. This was clearly positive, but the markets were digesting a speech from Mervyn King in which the governor outlined that he expected inflation to rise well beyond 3% and then drop off as the economy expands. Whilst the data is encouraging, it is clear following the release of the minutes of the last Bank of England meeting that the Bank will look to take a steady approach and complete the emergency funding plan before looking at rate rises.

German service and manufacturing data improved very slightly this morning, but this was the lowest rise since this measure returned to positive last year and as a result demonstrates that the Euro zone recovery is faltering. Similar news is expected from other economies in the region and this will continue to weaken the euro.

The US dollar is expected to strengthen as investors look for safer assets as China’s growth and inflation came in higher than expected. This raised concerns that the country would look to tighten monetary policy to curb a potential bubble. This is clearly a worry for those with riskier investments, and adds to demand for the traditionally safe US dollar.

Elsewhere, Australian motor vehicles sales increased by 17% since last year further raising expectations of an interest rate hike in the next Australian central bank meeting. In New Zealand, retail sales came in 0.8% higher for December beating analysts expectations. As a result this is expected to see both currencies strengthen.

Note: All rates are mid market inter bank and indicative at the point of publication.

To get an initial estimate of the cost of a property simply DIVIDE the price of the property by the appropriate currency rate noted above.

Posted January 20th, 2010 by Charles Purdy

Currency Rates

EURO/GBP – 1.148
US$/GBP – 1.631
CHF/GBP – 1.694
CAN$/GBP – 1.690
AUS$/GBP – 1.782

Request a quotation now at: http://www.smartcurrencyexchange.com/quote.aspx

Comments: Sterling had its best day in 4 months against Euro yesterday (hitting 1.1498 at one point) as reports showed that consumer prices in the UK unexpectedly jumped to 0.6% in December and 2.9% since last year – the fastest monthly rise in prices since records began in 1997. With increasing price pressure, investors have speculated that the Bank of England will look to increase interest rates sooner than expected. Mervyn King, speaking at Exeter University last night, expected to see this short term spike in inflation dissipate in the medium term suggesting that he and the Bank are unlikely to rush to tighten up the monetary supply. We have the minutes from the Bank of England meeting today with investors looking for clarity on monetary policy. In addition, Unemployment data out today is expected to show that the UK labour market has turned a corner.

Germany was yet again in the spotlight and again compounded Sterling’s gain against the Euro as consumer confidence there and in the Euro region as a whole fell more than expected. In addition, another report showed that construction activity had dropped by 1.1% in Europe – again suggesting that monetary policy in Europe will have to remain loose for longer than expected. There is no real data out today aside from the German producer prices which came in worse than expected overnight – the focus however will remain on the UK as the data has the potential for some volatility.

The US Dollar had a mixed day yesterday, losing ground to Sterling on the inflation news, but strengthening against other currencies as investor confidence faltered a little in global stock markets and investors moved to ‘safe-haven’ US Dollar assets.

Elsewhere, Australian consumer confidence rose by 5.6% (the largest rise in 6 months) boosting expectations of further interest rate rises in February. Whilst New Zealand’s prices dropped 0.2% month on month, the year on year rise came in at 2.0% – a little worse than expected. This caused investors to amend their expectations and the NZ Dollar dropped off against other currencies.

Note: All rates are mid market inter bank and indicative at the point of publication.

To get an initial estimate of the cost of a property simply DIVIDE the price of the property by the appropriate currency rate noted above.

Posted January 19th, 2010 by Charles Purdy

Currency Rates

EURO/GBP – 1.140
US$/GBP – 1.641
CHF/GBP – 1.682
CAN$/GBP – 1.685
AUS$/GBP – 1.773

Comments: Sterling continues on the up hitting a two month high as measured against a basket of major currencies. Only limited economic data out in the UK so it was more a case of continued worries concerning the euro and whether or not Greece would leave and the US market being closed for the day. Also here in the UK the Chancellor finally seems to realise cuts are needed if the UK is truly going to regain its equilibrium and have balanced budgets. As noted yesterday a raft of UK economic data is due out this week so we wait to see if momentum is maintained.

Note: All rates are mid market inter bank and indicative at the point of publication.

To get an initial estimate of the cost of a property simply DIVIDE the price of the property by the appropriate currency rate noted above.

Posted January 18th, 2010 by Charles Purdy

Currency Rates

EURO/GBP – 1.136
US$/GBP – 1.633
CHF/GBP – 1.676
CAN$/GBP – 1.678
AUS$/GBP – 1.767
ZAR/GBP – 12.093
JPY/GBP – 148.57
HKD/GBP – 12.678

Comments: Last week here in the United Kingdom we saw positive manufacturing forecasts, an optimistic outlook on the UK’s growth, talk of a reduction in the emergency funding and even mention of the recession being behind us – all of which helped to improve on the negative outlook for sterling. As a result, sterling had a “good week” against most currencies including the euro and US dollar. But sterling is moving in a fairly narrow range and still liable to move in the other direction with a slight shift in sentiment. This week we have a raft of economic data out staring with Decembers inflation figures which is expected to show an increase on the back of higher oil prices. Later in the week we have labour market data, public finances data and retail sales figures which are all expected to be “positive”. So we wait to see if sterling can build on last weeks momentum.

The euro is sitting at €1.133/£1 inter bank. Sterling’s strength was compounded by the European Central Bank which kept interest rates on hold last week and dampened the market’s expectation of a rise in rates anytime soon. The major focus was on Greece. Whilst prime minister George Papandreou struggled to convince investors that he can control the budget, ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet made it clear that Greece would receive no ‘special treatment’ from the EU in the form of bailout funding. Inflation figures out on Friday showed price rises of around 0.9%, which is still below the ECB’s target of 2%. Hence their decision to keep interest rates on hold. This week we have the release of the euro zone’s purchasing managers indices for both the manufacturing and services sector. The expectation is for a slight increase confirming the steady improvement in economic conditions in the euro zone.

The US$ is sitting at US$1.631/£1 inter bank. In the United States, retail sales in December came in worse than expected. Against an expectation of a positive increase, we saw a decrease of 0.3%. The major news last Friday was US inflation figures rising by 0.1% in December to 1.9% as increased energy prices filtered through. The major news out of the US this week will be producer price index for December and the weekly initial jobless claims figures.

Commodity backed currencies suffered slightly at the start of last week as the Chinese increased the amount that their banks must keep as reserves. This led to a fear of a knock on affect resulting in reduced buying of commodities. This fear soon dissipated. We also saw the employment figures in Australia coming in better than expected which boosted the Australian dollar. So the commodity backed currencies continue to be the flavour of the year but this is on the back of the huge amounts being pumped into the Chinese economy by their government.

Note: All rates are mid market inter bank and indicative at the point of publication.

© Copyright 2010 Smart Currency Exchange. All Rights Reserved.
Site by Iniquus