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Posted October 15th, 2010 by Charles Purdy

Daily Currency Note

EURO/GBP – 1.138
US$/GBP – 1.603
CHF/GBP – 1.528
CAN$/GBP - 1.609
AUS$/GBP – 1.611
ZAR/GBP – 10.918
JPY/GBP
– 130.24
HKD/GBP – 12.442
NZD/GBP – 2.113
US$/EURO – 1.408

Sterling rose to the highest level in 8 months against the US dollar yesterday. Sterling jumped in early Asian trading to hit $1.6065/£1 as the US dollar came under heavy selling pressure after Singapore eased the trading band on the US dollar/ Singapore dollar floating exchange rate and concerns grew over further Quantitative Easing. Sterling stayed close to a 6 month low against the euro as concerns over the UK’s own situation remained following downbeat comments from several Bank of England policy makers in recent days over the potential for more monetary easing. These comments were added to yesterday as deputy governor of the Bank of England Paul Tucker told the Daily Mail that the UK recovery had yet to find a “sure footing”. In terms of data, there was no real data released yesterday in the UK and the calendar remains quiet today. Call in now for a live exchange rate – especially to take advantage of the higher US dollar rates.

In the Euro zone, the euro followed suit in surging to an 8 month high against the US dollar, hitting $1.4123/1 on the day’s US dollar weakness. It was also helped by Wednesday’s upbeat comments from a key European Central Bank member. Axel Weber – part of the ECB governing council – was talking about exit strategy from loose monetary policy, highlighting the widening gap between US and European monetary policy. This saw medium term interest rate expectations rise for the Euro zone. Out today, there is inflation data for the region so get in touch now for a live exchange rate.
 
In the USA, expectations that the Federal Reserve will add further monetary easing in the near future saw the currency plummet across the board. Poor data didn’t help, with the trade deficit unexpectedly widening by $3bn and unemployment claims rising by 20,000 more on last week. Out today, there is key inflation and retail sales data – so call in for a live exchange rate as we could see the US dollar fall further.
 
Elsewhere, traders would be forgiven for confusing several currencies yesterday. With the US dollar performing so poorly, and a surge in demand for the Canadian dollar and Australian dollar, all three were trading in and around the $1.60/ £1 for most of the day – maybe a case for unifying to a single global dollar? Probably not… Have a great weekend.

Exchange rates change every second – call Smart Currency Exchange for a live up-to-the-minute quote. For individual requirements, visit the SmartCurrencyExchange.com website and for companies visit the SmartCurrencyBusiness.com website.

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Posted October 14th, 2010 by Charles Purdy

Daily Currency Note

EURO/GBP – 1.136
US$/GBP – 1.601
CHF/GBP – 1.524
CAN$/GBP - 1.599
AUS$/GBP – 1.605
ZAR/GBP – 10.865
JPY/GBP
– 130.04
HKD/GBP – 12.424
NZD/GBP – 2.097
US$/EURO – 1.409

Sterling hit a 5 month low against the euro on Wednesday as weak consumer confidence data and mixed employment data saw confidence in the pound drop. Sterling dropped to 1.1316/£1 but held relatively firm against the US dollar, touching back above $1.58/£1 in late trading. Consumer confidence dropped by nine points to hit the lowest level in more than a year and unemployment data showed that the number of new claims for unemployment benefits rose. On a more positive note, the rate of unemployment dropped to the lowest level in more than a year. With downbeat comments from Bank of England policy maker David Miles on Tuesday, concerns over a weak recovery have caused speculation that the Bank of England will restart monetary easing in the near future. There is no real data released tomorrow, so speak to one of the team to ensure negative sentiment does not adversely impact your payments.

In the Euro zone, the euro pushed through $1.40/1 and challenged the 8 month high of $1.4030/1 as the Federal Reserve minutes released on Tuesday night reinforced expectations of further Quantitative Easing in the USA. Upbeat comments from a key European Central Bank member also helped. Axel Weber – part of the ECB governing council – was talking about exit strategy from loose monetary policy, highlighting the widening gap between US and European monetary policy. Elsewhere, European industrial production increased by more than expected at 1%. It is another light day for data so speak to a trader now for a live exchange rate.
 
In the USA, the US dollar fell against major counterparts yesterday as the financial markets digested Tuesday night’s Federal Open Market Committee minutes. The minutes showed that the FOMC felt that the struggling US recovery might soon need some additional help – validating the assessment that there will soon be further money pumped in to the economy. In terms of data, there is monthly inflation data and also unemployment figures. Call in now for an exact price as constant volatility means the prices change by the second.
 
Elsewhere, the Australian dollar hit the highest level against the US dollar since 1983 when it was first allowed to float freely on the market. In addition, Japanese yen slipped against the US dollar after investors became concerned that the Japanese government would intervene following a return towards the 15 year high. Speak to one of the team for an assessment of how this will impact your payments.

Exchange rates change every second – call Smart Currency Exchange for a live up-to-the-minute quote. For individual requirements, visit the SmartCurrencyExchange.com website and for companies visit the SmartCurrencyBusiness.com website.

Posted October 13th, 2010 by Charles Purdy

Daily Currency Note

EURO/GBP – 1.135
US$/GBP – 1.586
CHF/GBP – 1.517
CAN$/GBP - 1.599
AUS$/GBP – 1.609
ZAR/GBP – 10.858
JPY/GBP
– 129.89
HKD/GBP – 12.312
NZD/GBP – 2.096
US$/EURO – 1.397

Sterling fell against both the euro and US dollar yesterday after downbeat comments from yet another member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee saw investors lose confidence in the UK economy. In a speech in Dublin, MPC member David Miles stated that Quantitative Easing (“QE”) “remains a potentially powerful tool and one that we might come to use”. Miles’ comments echo those of colleague Adam Posen who advocated further monetary easing just a few weeks ago. Sterling dropped to within sight of the 5 month low it hit against the euro last week and slipped by 0.5% against the US dollar suggesting that it is incredibly sensitive to swings in sentiment over whether the Bank of England will put more money into the economy or not. On a more ‘positive’ note, inflation stayed at 3.1% which could dissuade the bank from further QE however the British Chamber of Commerce presented data that showed that economic activity had slowed sharply in the 3rd Quarter. Adam Posen speaks later today so expect further poor sentiment to damage sterling, so speak to one of the team today about the implications of this on your payment.

In the Euro zone, it was a fairly quiet day for data with the euro moving on UK and US sentiment. Against the US dollar, the euro slipped as markets await further clarification on the Federal Reserve’s plans to pump more money into the US economy and traders scaled back on some riskier trades ahead of this evening’s FOMC minutes (the US equivalent of the Monetary Policy Committee). Out later today, there is French inflation data and industrial production figures for the region. Call in now to ensure you maximise the value of your exchange by trading at the right time.
 
In the USA, stock markets fell across the board in anticipation of the FOMC minutes that were released late last night. With many expecting details of further monetary easing to be released, a large number of traders pulled back on ‘extreme’ short positions in case the news came in unexpectedly and the markets moved against them. This saw the US dollar strengthen across the board – somewhat bizarrely given that it was concern over the US economy that spurred the move. In terms of data, there is import price data and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks to Congress.

Elsewhere, Canada’s federal budget deficit for the 2009-2010 fiscal year totalled C$55.6bn (3.6% of GDP) which signalled to many that the Canadian economy is running out of steam. Canada has seen a boost related to high demand for commodities related to the booming Chinese economy. Call in now for a live rate of exchange.

Exchange rates change every second – call Smart Currency Exchange for a live up-to-the-minute quote. For individual requirements, visit the SmartCurrencyExchange.com website and for companies visit the SmartCurrencyBusiness.com website.

Posted October 12th, 2010 by Charles Purdy

Daily Currency Note

EURO/GBP – 1.148
US$/GBP – 1.585
CHF/GBP – 1.538
CAN$/GBP - 1.613
AUS$/GBP – 1.622
ZAR/GBP – 10.967
JPY/GBP
– 129.97
HKD/GBP – 12.308
NZD/GBP – 2.116
US$/EURO – 1.380

Sterling dipped marginally lower yesterday against the US dollar as concerns over further monetary easing encouraged investors to sell sterling as it failed to hold above $1.60/£1. Both David Cameron and George Osborne gave their support for further Quantitative Easing if the Bank of England deemed it necessary, with PM Cameron stating that monetary policy was a better way of boosting growth than fiscal policy. Despite this, many investors were wary of sterling dropping too far, as key inflation data released tomorrow is expected to show that UK prices are still rising at a stubbornly high rate. High inflation is likely to dissuade the Bank of England from pumping more money into the economy, so we may see some sterling strength later today. In addition, there is trade balance and consumer confidence data so it is likely to be busy. Speak to a trader now to protect yourself from any unexpected movements.

In the Euro zone, the euro slipped against the US dollar after briefly hovering above $1.40/1. This was linked to profit taking following last week’s comments that the euro was too strong. In terms of data, French industrial production data came in worse than expected, showing no growth on last month. Italian data surprised to the upside, showing a 1.6% boost on expectations of no growth. Out today, there is German inflation data and ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet is due to speak in New York this evening. Speak to one of the traders about using volatility to your advantage.
 
In the US, with the markets closed for a bank holiday, there was very ‘thin trading’ – i.e. with so many banks closed, there was no trades of note to move the US dollar price significantly. With the weekend’s meetings of key finance ministers failing to provide any solution to the issue of the recently dubbed “currency wars”, the markets still await some sort of direction on this front. Markets were flat ahead of today’s minutes from the recent Federal Reserve interest rate decision meeting. With many expecting the Fed to start pumping more money into the economy, this meeting could detail the initial framework of how this is to be implemented. Call in now for a live price to take advantage of near 8 month high sterling to US dollar prices.
 
Elsewhere, Australian business confidence fell in September – continuing the downward trend that started in February. As a result, investor expectations of an interest rate hike at November’s policy meeting fell and the Australian dollar fell against its major counterparts.

Exchange rates change every second – call Smart Currency Exchange for a live up-to-the-minute quote. For individual requirements, visit the SmartCurrencyExchange.com website and for companies visit the SmartCurrencyBusiness.com website.

Posted October 11th, 2010 by Charles Purdy

Daily Currency Note

EURO/GBP – 1.144
US$/GBP – 1.594
CHF/GBP – 1.534
CAN$/GBP - 1.613
AUS$/GBP – 1.620
ZAR/GBP – 10.969
JPY/GBP
– 130.85
HKD/GBP – 12.369
NZD/GBP – 2.119
US$/EURO – 1.392

Sterling strengthened against the US dollar on Friday, coming close to the 8 month high it the previous day as US employment figures disappointed and UK producer inflation data helped investors regain confidence in the pound. Sterling also regained some ground against the euro after the strong data and also comments that the euro was too strong, but was held from going too far due to concerns over further Quantitative Easing. The economic calendar is relatively light today, with bank holidays in Canada and the USA. However, the most important events will be taking place in Washington, as Mervyn King and Bill Dudley (US Federal Reserve President) speak following the weekend’s autumn meetings of the IMF and World Bank. As mentioned last week, currency devaluation and the threat of “currency wars” are key issues right now, so speak to one of the team now for a live update on the situation

In the Euro zone, the euro fell against sterling on Friday after Eurogroup chairman Jean-Claude Juncker stated that the euro was too strong against both sterling and the US dollar. The euro has strengthened in recent months as the European Central Bank focuses on withdrawing emergency funding which contrasts sharply with the monetarily loose outlook of their US and UK equivalents. Data released today in the region is restricted to Italian and French industrial production so call in now to take advantage of slightly better sterling/ euro prices.
 
In the USA, the US dollar lost ground again on Friday as it loses favour amongst global investors as many are now almost certain that the Federal Reserve will start pumping more money into the US economy in the next few weeks. Key Non-Farm Payroll figures showed that the US economy shed 95,000 jobs in the last month which saw the US dollar fall against major counterparts. With markets closed today and no clear resolution (so far) to the issue of “currency wars”, the US currency has stayed relatively flat in early trading today. Speak to one of the team now to ensure you don’t lose out.
 
Elsewhere, the New Zealand dollar slipped by 0.3% against major counterparts as Prime Minister John Key said that currency exchange rates were starting to cause concern for exporters. In addition, Australian home loans grew by 1% as expected in August.

Exchange rates change every second – call Smart Currency Exchange for a live up-to-the-minute quote. For individual requirements, visit the SmartCurrencyExchange.com website and for companies visit the SmartCurrencyBusiness.com website.

Posted October 8th, 2010 by Charles Purdy

Daily Currency Note

EURO/GBP – 1.137
US$/GBP – 1.583
CHF/GBP – 1.531
CAN$/GBP - 1.611
AUS$/GBP – 1.622
ZAR/GBP – 10.971
JPY/GBP
– 130.44
HKD/GBP – 12.283
NZD/GBP – 2.118
US$/EURO – 1.391

Sterling temporarily broke through the $1.60/£1 level against the US dollar for the first time in 2 months as the Bank of England refrained from adding any additional monetary stimulus to the economy at yesterday’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting. Sterling gave back the earlier gains as investors took profits and looked ahead to the minutes of the meeting, which many expect to show a 3 way split between raising interest rates, doing nothing and pumping more money into the economy. The minutes are released on the same day as the government’s spending review decisions leaving the possibility of a nightmare day for sterling on October the 20th. House prices woefully disappointed yesterday morning with a survey by the Halifax showing that prices dropped by 3.6% on last month, but manufacturing data increased marginally. Data today includes wholesale price inflation which will be watched closely. Speak to one of the team now to analyse how best to proceed over the coming weeks.  

 
In the Euro zone, the European Central Bank kept interest rates on hold at record lows for another month. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet made clear that excess currency volatility was best avoided in order to help the global recovery. Currency is a key topic on the agenda at this weekend’s IMF and World Bank meeting and also the G& summit today. With domestic growth low, many countries try to intentionally keep their currency weak to encourage exports. This situation led to de-facto trade wars during the 1930’s and exacerbated the Great Depression. Avoiding these “currency wars” is a key aim of the IMF, World Bank and G7. There is no real data out today, so expect sentiment based trading to continue.
 
In the USA, the US dollar continued to lose ground yesterday as it loses favour amongst global investors as many are now almost certain that the Federal Reserve will start pumping more money into the US economy in the next few weeks. Sentiment was poor despite figures showing that new claims for unemployment fell to the lowest for 3 months and retail sales by 2.8% against an expectation of 2.1%. Out today, there is the key Non-Farm Payroll figures and also the unemployment rate. Speak to one of the team today to maximise your margin on any payments you need to make.
 
Elsewhere, the Japanese finance minister made clear in a statement that the Japanese government maintains its stance of actively looking to curb yen strength. However, despite hovering around 15 year highs against the US dollar, no action has been taken since intervening on September 15th. It will be interesting to see what the IMF’s response to this active management is after their meeting. Have a fantastic weekend.

 

Exchange rates change every second – call Smart Currency Exchange for a live up-to-the-minute quote. For individual requirements, visit the SmartCurrencyExchange.com website and for companies visit the SmartCurrencyBusiness.com website.

Posted October 7th, 2010 by Charles Purdy

Daily Currency Note

EURO/GBP – 1.136
US$/GBP – 1.589

CHF/GBP – 1.521
CAN$/GBP – 1.602
AUS$/GBP – 1.604
ZAR/GBP – 10.883
JPY/GBP – 131.01
HKD/GBP – 12.330
NZD/GBP – 2.099
US$/EURO – 1.398

Sterling fell to a 4 ½ month low against a generally stronger euro yesterday as concerns over more monetary easing hurt sterling. However, as has been the case of late, gains from the single currency helped boost sterling against the US dollar and saw the pound hit a high of $1.5940/£1 – the highest since early August. The major concern for the UK is the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee meeting today. After mixed messages from several key decision makers, markets are expecting the worst – more Quantitative Easing. As a result, sterling has slumped to a low of 1.1360/£1 already this morning as investors sell the pound ahead of the news. House price data did not help either, showing that prices fell by 3.6% on the month. The decision is released at 12:00pm, so expect significant sterling/ euro volatility before and after – ensure you speak to a trader asap to avoid losing out.

In the Euro zone, the euro hit an 8 month high against the US dollar above $1.39/1 as the US dollar weakened further as speculation grew that the Federal Reserve will announce further monetary easing in the next few weeks. With the euro/ US dollar prices correlating with sterling/ US dollar, any move above $1.40/1 will see sterling break $1.60/ £1 on US dollar. Aside from that, German factory orders surprised to the upside yesterday after surging to 3.4% growth on the month before against expectations of 0.9% growth. Out today there is industrial production data, but the key moves are going to come from the Bank of England. Speak to one of the team now to time your purchase to the maximum.

In the USA, the US dollar continued to lose ground yesterday as it loses favour amongst global investors as many are now almost certain that the Federal Reserve will start pumping more money into the US economy in the next few weeks. The ADP Non-Farm payroll data showed that the economy shed 39,000 jobs in the last month which doesn’t help ahead of Friday’s ‘headline’ Non-Farm figures. There is unemployment data released today, so call in now for a live price.

Elsewhere, the Australian dollar hit a 27 year high against the US dollar as the Australian economy added 50,000 jobs in the last month. This revived talk of interest rate hikes after the central bank unexpectedly kept interest rates on hold earlier in the week. The Japanese yen is hovering around 15 year highs against the US dollar, which is the level at which the Japanese government started intervention on the 15th September.

Posted October 6th, 2010 by Charles Purdy

Daily Currency Note

EURO/GBP – 1.149
US$/GBP – 1.593

CHF/GBP – 1.540
CAN$/GBP – 1.614
AUS$/GBP – 1.634
ZAR/GBP – 10.929
JPY/GBP – 132.31
HKD/GBP – 12.354
NZD/GBP – 2.123
US$/EURO – 1.370

Sterling recovered to hit a 2 month high against the US dollar yesterday after stronger than expected UK services sector data and expectations over further monetary stimulus in the USA. Sterling hit a high of $1.5928/£1 on the day as growth in the services sector unexpectedly jumped off of August’s 16 month lows. Analysts were keen to point out that this was not the reversal of the UK’s woes, and as such, any return to favour from the US dollar will see sterling slip back down. Sterling was not so successful against the euro, as euro buying in Asia helped strengthen the single currency. Out tomorrow there is key data released on house price data which is expected to show a slight increase on last month. The data could prove vital ahead of Thursday’s Bank of England interest rate meeting so speak to one of the team now to protect yourself.

In the Euro zone, the last 2 days has seen strong demand for the euro from Asia. There seems to have been a shift from the use of the US dollar as a global reserve currency to the use of the euro. As concerns grow over the state of the US recovery, this seems to have caused the shift and as a result is supporting the euro. In terms of data, retail sales slipped unexpectedly last month to -0.4%, but the services PMI data came in better than expected. Out today, there is final GDP data for the quarter and German factory orders for the month. Speak to one of the team now to prevent yourself losing out.

In the USA, concerns still remain over the widely expected fresh monetary easing that is expected over the next few weeks. As a result, the US dollar fell to the lowest level against the euro in 8 months hitting a session high of $1.3851/1. Combined with the diversification of currency holdings by Asian banks, it was a poor day for the US dollar. US data showed that services sector activity improved slightly more than expected in September which helped slightly, but the overriding concerns over further Quantitative Easing prevailed. Out today, there is the first Non-Farm measure of the week. Speak to a trader now to ensure you take advantage of any large movements.

Elsewhere, the Australian central bank kept interest rates on hold despite being expected to raise them to 0.25% for the first time in 5 months. In addition, the Bank of Japan unexpectedly cut interest rates to help devalue the Japanese yen and manage the value of their exports which have become prohibitively high after the yen hit a 15 year high against the US dollar. Speak to one of the team now about the challenges ahead over the next few months.

Posted October 5th, 2010 by Charles Purdy

Daily Currency Note

EURO/GBP – 1.153
US$/GBP – 1.580

CHF/GBP – 1.535
CAN$/GBP – 1.619
AUS$/GBP – 1.652
ZAR/GBP – 11.101
JPY/GBP – 132.34
HKD/GBP – 12.259
NZD/GBP – 2.134
US$/EURO – 1.370

Sterling recovered against the euro on Monday as better than expected construction data helped investors feel more confident in the UK recovery. Construction PMI data showed that construction activity picked up in September, rising to 53.8 against an expectation of a fall to 51.6. Concerns over the ‘peripheral’ European countries also saw the euro suffer, but the atmosphere is still nervous ahead of Thursday’s Bank of England interest rate after last week’s comments by Adam Posen. The Bank of England policymaker made clear last week that a fresh round of Quantitative Easing should be used to pump more money into the economy and provide stimulus for growth. This contrasts with Andrew Sentance, who has been voting for a 0.25% rise in interest rates for the last 4 meetings. Either way, the meeting has the potential to cause significant movement, so call in and speak to a trader now to make sure you don’t lose out. Key house price and service sector data is released today also.

In the Euro zone, despite jumping in overnight trade after strong demand from Asia, the single currency slipped by 0.9% yesterday against sterling and US dollar. Concerns over the economies of Portugal, Ireland and Greece saw confidence slide. The Irish government yesterday said that the Irish economy will grind to a halt this year, and Greek budgetary forecasts show that the country expects a contraction of 2.6% next year followed by a 4% contraction in 2010. It seems that after a month of inexplicable euro strength, the markets seem to have recognised that there are still significant issues being faced. Out later today there is retail sales data, so call in and ensure you are buying at the right time.

In the USA, concerns still remain over the widely expected fresh monetary easing that is expected over the next few weeks. However, the balance of power shifted back towards the US dollar as the euro lost ground after the budgetary and growth announcements detailed above. There was some respite as data showed sales of previously owned homes rose to a 4 month high, but the effect was not long lived. The US dollar may have recovered some ground against the euro, but it slipped to a 2 ½ year low against the Swiss franc and again hovered near to a 15 year low against the Japanese yen. Speak to one of the team to make sure you take advantage.

Elsewhere, tomorrow sees the Australian interest rate decision which is widely expected to see the Australian central bank raise interest rates by 0.25% for the first time in 5 months. This would bring rates to 4.75%, and a Credit Suisse gauge of expectations has 52% of market participants pricing this in already. Demand from China for commodities has been driving the currency – call in now to ensure you do not miss out, as this could see the AUS dollar strengthen significantly against sterling.

Posted October 4th, 2010 by Charles Purdy

Daily Currency Note

EURO/GBP – 1.151
US$/GBP – 1.578

CHF/GBP – 1.537
CAN$/GBP – 1.611
AUS$/GBP – 1.631
ZAR/GBP – 10.985
JPY/GBP – 131.37
HKD/GBP – 12.244
NZD/GBP – 2.129
US$/EURO – 1.370

Sterling fell to a 4 month low on Friday against euro as worries over further Quantitative Easing and poor data saw investors sell the pound. Sterling fell below 1.15/£1 and dropped to a low of 1.1423/£1 in Asian trading overnight. Against the US dollar, sterling performed well as investors looked elsewhere over concerns that the Federal Reserve would pump more money into the economy over the next few weeks. Data on Friday showed that the UK manufacturing sector weakened more than expected in September, as export orders dropped fro the first time in a year. In a speech to the conservative party conference, Chancellor George Osborne has said that the UK has moved out of the financial “Danger Zone” and is set for a steady and sustainable recovery. Data out later is expected to show that UK construction activity declined for the 4th consecutive month and slumping to the lowest level since February. Call in now for a live exchange rate and to protect yourself from poor movements.

In the Euro zone, the euro had a strong week as concerns over the state of the UK and US recoveries helped boost demand for the currency. News that fewer banks had drawn down on available credit from the European Central Bank helped boost confidence. Market reaction seems fairly bizarre, as when news was announced that Spain’s credit rating had been downgraded and that the bill for the Irish banking bailout would probably top 29bn – the financial markets hardly batted an eyelid. There are some serious structural issues that need resolving but it seems that the markets feel it is a better bet than the US dollar or sterling at the moment. Speak to one of the team about protecting yourself.

In the USA, concerns over further Quantitative Easing and monetary stimulus are still hurting the US dollar – expect this to continue in the run up to the next meeting of the Federal Reserve on 2nd November. Pending home sales and factory order data are both expected to show lower rates of growth later today. Ensure you are covered over the next few months by discussing forward contracts.

Elsewhere, Australian inflation jumped to a 4 month high in September with the annual rate growing to 3.2%. This boosted expectations that the Australian central bank would look to start raising interest rates again at this week’s policy meeting. In addition, the Japanese yen tumbled on speculation that the Bank of Japan would start monetary easing to help weaken the currency and improve exports.

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