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Posted January 31st, 2011 by Charles Purdy

Daily Currency Note

EURO/GBP - 1.1649
US$/GBP – 1.5876
CHF/GBP – 1.4939
CAN$/GBP – 1.5864
AUS$/GBP – 1.5948
ZAR/GBP – 11.3870
JPY/GBP – 130.23
HKD/GBP – 12.3744
NZD/GBP – 2.0514
SEK/GBP – 10.3364
US$/EURO – 1.3623

Sterling steadied against the euro at the end of a turbulent week for the UK economy and sterling’s prospects. Shocking GDP figures on Tuesday drastically altered market expectations for an interest rate hike by the Bank of England as the data showed that the economy contracted by 0.5% in the last 3 months of 2010. However, Wednesday’s Bank of England minutes showed that another member of the committee voted for a 0.25% interest rate hike which saw market anticipation for an interest rate hike creep back in. Prospects for a UK recovery were dented further on Friday when a survey showed that consumer confidence dropped to the lowest level in 22 months as the VAT rise and spending cuts loomed. This week sees important house price and manufacturing data so call in now for a live exchange rate.
 
In the euro zone, the euro slipped by 1% against the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc as risk aversion boosted demand for the traditionally safe haven currencies of Japan and Switzerland. The developing situation in Egypt left investors concerned over the general situation in North Africa and the Middle East. With Egypt seen as a pivot point for stability in the region, financial markets will keep a very close eye on things. This week sees a wide array of data including the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision and press conference.
 
In the USA, the US dollar had a bumper day on Friday as GDP data showed that the economy gathered pace in the last quarter of 2010. In addition, the situation in Egypt saw safe haven buying of the US currency after oil prices jumped due to concerns over future supply in the event of unrest in the Middle East. This week sees a wide array of data including the important Non-Farm payroll figures, so call in now for a live exchange rate.
 
Elsewhere, the Japanese yen performed well as strong economic data helped boost the currency. Industrial production data showed a 3% gain on the previous month while Australian inflation slowed in January to a four month low. It is set to be an interesting week on the risk appetite front so call in now for a live exchange rate.

For more information on Smart Currency Exchange, please call our freephone: 0808 163 0102 (+44 (0)207 898 0541 from outside the UK) or visit our website at: SmartCurrencyExchange.com 

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Posted January 28th, 2011 by Charles Purdy

Daily Currency Note

EURO/GBP - 1.1583
US$/GBP – 1.5870
CHF/GBP – 1.5009
CAN$/GBP – 1.5822
AUS$/GBP – 1.6026
ZAR/GBP – 11.2723
JPY/GBP
– 131.26
HKD/GBP – 12.3628
NZD/GBP – 2.05513
SEK/GBP – 10.2499
US$/EURO – 1.3690
 

Sterling gained against the US dollar yesterday as the currency continued to gain support following Wednesday’s Bank of England minutes, hitting a daily high of $1.5991/£1 – just shy of the $1.60/£1 mark. Sterling’s support came from the fact that committee member Martin Weale joined Andrew Sentance in calling for a 0.25% rate hike – a move that was seen as increasing the likelihood of an interest rate rise later this year, despite Tuesday’s poor GDP figures. Mervyn King made it clear in a speech on Tuesday night that any rate decision would have the long term prospects of the economy at heart. King’s speech (not the Colin Firth one) reaffirmed his belief that inflation would rise before dropping next year. Call in now to take advantage of the higher US dollar rates.
 
In the euro zone, high inflation and potential interest rate hikes seemed all the rage this week – yesterday saw Germany join the party with prices rising in the country at their highest rate since October 2008, up 2% year on year. This prompted further speculation over interest rate hikes with many analysts expecting a 0.5% increase by the end of the year. Out today there is no real data of interest but call in to speak to the team about the next few weeks.
 
In the USA, the US dollar fell yesterday as the impact of President Obama’s State of the Union address sank in. The President announced the first moves to start cutting spending and the deficit. On the data front, numbers for first time claimants of unemployment benefits gained that did not help. Released today is the 4th Quarter GDP figures which could be very interesting – call in now for a quote. 

Elsewhere, the Japanese yen fell yesterday after credit rating agency Fitch cut the country’s credit rating to AA-. The move called into question the yen’s status as a safe haven currency and many feel that this could benefit the US dollar in the long run.

For more information on Smart Currency Exchange, please call our freephone: 0808 163 0102 (+44 (0)207 898 0541 from outside the UK) or visit our website at: SmartCurrencyExchange.com 

 

Posted January 27th, 2011 by Charles Purdy

Daily Currency Note

EURO/GBP - 1.1640
US$/GBP – 1.5882
CHF/GBP – 1.5007
CAN$/GBP – 1.5857
AUS$/GBP – 1.6070
ZAR/GBP – 11.2684
JPY/GBP
– 139.93
HKD/GBP – 12.372
NZD/GBP – 2.0683
SEK/GBP – 10.2882
US$/EURO – 1.3646

Sterling staged a muted recovery yesterday following Tuesday’s shock GDP figures, finishing the day up 0.55% against the euro and 0.3% against the US dollar. Sterling saw the recovery after the Bank of England minutes showed that another member of the committee had unexpectedly joined Andrew Sentance in calling for a 0.25% rate hike, which left some feeling that there is a likelihood of an interest rate hike later this year. MPC member Martin Weale has so far stayed on the fence, but the stubbornly high inflation caused him to side with rate hawk Sentance. In reality the likelihood of an interest rate hike in the next 6-12 months is minimal with many analysts still reeling from Tuesday’s shocking announcement. In a speech on Tuesday night, Mervyn King stood by his assessment that inflation will peak at around 5% before tailing off next year. Until the fundamental figures pick up, sterling is going to be in a holding pattern for the considerable future. Check out Smart Currency’s Nick Ryder in yesterday’s Guardian here.
 
In the euro zone, the euro hit a 2 month high against the US dollar as investors speculated that interest rates in the euro zone would rise sooner than in the USA. With the European Central Bank concerned about rising levels of inflation and the Federal Reserve set to keep monetary policy relatively loose for the time being gave rise to speculation that the euro holdings would yield more in the coming months as the ECB looked to control inflation with interest rate hikes. With the current situation in the region, any rise in interest rates would be nigh on suicidal for the likes of Portugal and Greece, so don’t expect this for a while. Call in now for a live exchange rate.
 
In the USA, the US dollar fell yesterday following President Obama’s State of the Union address in which the President promised spending cuts. The move to trim the deficit was seen positively by the markets and it left markets expecting loose monetary policy for the months to come in order to accommodate the cuts. The Federal Reserve met last night and made no changes to monetary policy, giving investors more certainty as to the future in contrast with the UK – this will help stabilise price volatility. Call in now for a live exchange rate.
 
Elsewhere, the Australian dollar suffered as Prime Minister Julie Gillard unveiled a tax to pay for flood repair – the PM estimated that the damage will cost AU$5.6bn and cut economic growth by 0.5% next year, although analysts feel that estimate could be a little conservative. Japan’s credit rating was slashed this morning over concerns that not enough was being done to cut the deficit.

For more information on Smart Currency Exchange, please call our freephone: 0808 163 0102 (+44 (0)207 898 0541 from outside the UK) or visit our website at: SmartCurrencyExchange.com 

 

Posted January 26th, 2011 by Charles Purdy

Daily Currency Note

EURO/GBP - 1.1540
US$/GBP – 1.5784
CHF/GBP – 1.4902
CAN$/GBP – 1.5737
AUS$/GBP – 1.5822
ZAR/GBP – 11.1740
JPY/GBP
– 139.64
HKD/GBP – 12.293
NZD/GBP – 2.0535
SEK/GBP – 10.2801
US$/EURO – 1.3679
 

Sterling plummeted yesterday – dropping by 1.3% against the US dollar and 1.1% against the euro – as 4th Quarter GDP showed that the UK economy contracted by 0.5% in the last 3 months of 2010. Markets were expecting December’s poor weather to have an impact with analysts expecting a 0.5% gain, but the figure came as a great shock as there no longer seems to be any justification for last week’s talk of higher interest rates before the summer. Sterling is likely to maintain subdued now for the coming months until the fundamental data catches up with inflation – especially after Mervyn King essentially ruled out any interest hikes for some time after insisting that inflation would retreat after peaking at 5% later this year. On the plus side, we have seen a lot of clients moving sums back into sterling taking advantage of sterling’s demise.
 
In the euro zone, the euro rapidly jumped to a 2 ½ month high against sterling as the shock UK GDP contraction came through. The euro hit €1.1562/£1 – the highest level since November the 8th – as markets scaled back their expectations of an interest rate rise in the UK that had buoyed the pound last week. Aside from the euro’s movement against sterling, French consumer spending beat expectations, and the currency hardly moved against the US dollar all day as the majority of traders focused on sterling. Out today, we minimal data and Europe is likely to be overshadowed by UK and US interest rate minutes and policy announcements. Call in now for a live exchange rate.
 
In the USA, the US dollar had a similarly strong day against sterling – gaining by nearly 2 cents against the nose-diving UK currency. Traders took advantage as sterling posted 1% losses across the board. The US dollar also took a boost from better than expected consumer confidence figures that added to the ever improving picture of a blossoming US recovery. Out later today, we have the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and policy statement. Markets are not expecting any changes, but subtle changes in the language used can be seen as a change in direction – either way it is a big day again, so call in now to ensure you don’t lose out.

Elsewhere, the Reserve Bank of India raised interest rates by 0.25% to clamp down on spiralling inflation and issued a warning that food prices would continue to rise without measures being taken to boost supplies and ease price pressures. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

For more information on Smart Currency Exchange, please call our freephone: 0808 163 0102 (+44 (0)207 898 0541 from outside the UK) or visit our website at: SmartCurrencyExchange.com 

 

Posted January 25th, 2011 by Charles Purdy

Daily Currency Note

EURO/GBP - 1.1672
US$/GBP – 1.5955
CHF/GBP – 1.5151
CAN$/GBP – 1.5834
AUS$/GBP – 1.5997
ZAR/GBP – 11.1843
JPY/GBP
– 131.53
HKD/GBP – 12.4320
NZD/GBP – 2.0833
SEK/GBP – 10.4333
US$/EURO – 1.3666

Sterling fell against the US dollar and euro yesterday as investors took profits following last week’s highs. Last week was a bumper week for the pound as inflation figures heightened expectations of an earlier than expected interest rate hike by the Bank of England. However, negative comments from Adam Posen on Friday and a downbeat article in the Daily Telegraph cast doubts over the possibility of any change in monetary policy. The Telegraph argued that any interest rate hike could punish the economy and push the recovery into a period of stagflation. Today sees the first estimate of UK GDP for the 4th Quarter and analysts are expecting the harsh weather to have dented economic activity. This week also sees the Bank of England’s minutes from their last meeting so call in for a live exchange rate.
 
In the euro zone, the euro fell from a 2 month high against the US dollar as worries over political instability in Ireland dented the outlook for the region. The euro hit the highest level against the US dollar since November on Sunday as talk over inflation in the region helped the currency hit $1.3648/1 but that was soon lost as worries over the stability of Ireland’s bailout plan caused the currency to drop. Monthly industrial orders slipped in the region also – out today there is German consumer confidence data so call in now for a live exchange rate.
 
In the USA, it was a quiet day for data in the region and the US dollar took its lead from other currencies. It is an interesting week ahead, with President Barack Obama’s State of the Union address tonight and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision tomorrow. Ensure you speak to one of the team to avoid the market moving against you.

Elsewhere, the Canadian dollar fell against the majority of counterparts following an announcement to increase oil production by Saudi Arabian Oil minister Ali al-Naimi that saw the price of crude oil drop. Canada kept interest rates on hold last week given the Canadian dollar’s strength and any further rate rises will be ‘carefully considered’.

For more information on Smart Currency Exchange, please call our freephone: 0808 163 0102 (+44 (0)207 898 0541 from outside the UK) or visit our website at: SmartCurrencyExchange.com 

Posted January 24th, 2011 by Charles Purdy

Daily Currency Note

EURO/GBP - 1.1741
US$/GBP – 1.5951
CHF/GBP – 1.5332
CAN$/GBP – 1.5865
AUS$/GBP – 1.6103
ZAR/GBP – 11.2750
JPY/GBP
– 132.20
HKD/GBP – 12.4377
NZD/GBP – 2.1062
SEK/GBP – 10.5263
US$/EURO – 1.3583

Sterling finished slightly stronger against the US dollar on Friday after following the euro higher against the US currency. It was a volatile week for sterling after much higher than expected interest rates heightened expectations for a sooner than anticipated hike in UK interest rates. This saw sterling hit a high of $1.6060/£1, however a poor set of fundamental figures – including a 0.8% drop in retail sales for December on Friday – saw the sheen taken off analyst’s expectations for an interest rate rise. Retail sales were expected to fall as a result of December’s inclement weather, but not by as much as they did. It is a very important week for sterling, with preliminary GDP for the 4th Quarter of last year and the minutes from the most recent Bank of England meeting. The minutes will be very closely watched for any sign of a change in monetary policy so call in now for a live exchange rate.
 
In the euro zone, the euro hit a 2 month high against the US dollar – breaking above the $1.36/€1 level – as market anxiety over the euro zone debt crisis started to ease. Strong debt auctions from Portugal and Spain and warnings over higher inflation in the region have helped to reduce panic over a systemic collapse. However, Sunday’s events in Ireland could yet test this. Ireland’s Green party withdrew from the coalition government to end a weekend that saw Prime Minister Brian Cowen step down from his party’s leadership but stay on until key budget legislation is passed that was a key requirement of the recent EU bailout. The move by the greens paves the way for a March 11 election – we shall have to see how this pans out for the euro this week.
 
In the USA, it was a good week for data with the claimant count dropping and new home sales jumping unexpectedly. Fundamental figures have been improving, but the Federal Reserve is not expected to make any changes to current monetary policy. The Fed meets this week, and is expected to continue with its plan to buy $600bn of debt through until mid-2011. Aside from that, there is a wide array of data released this week so ensure you don’t lose out and speak to a trader now.

Elsewhere, the USA has seen some progress from China to allow the value of its currency to appreciate. China has come under pressure as the Chinese reminbi has been kept artificially low against the US dollar, giving Chinese exporters an unfair advantage. Apparently Chinese Premier Hu Jintao offered no new concessions on currency on his visit to the USA last week.

For more information on Smart Currency Exchange, please call our freephone: 0808 163 0102 (+44 (0)207 898 0541 from outside the UK) or visit our website at: SmartCurrencyExchange.com 

 

Posted January 21st, 2011 by Charles Purdy

Daily Currency Note

EURO/GBP - 1.1745
US$/GBP – 1.5917
CHF/GBP – 1.5331
CAN$/GBP – 1.5877
AUS$/GBP – 1.6110
ZAR/GBP – 11.2415
JPY/GBP
– 131.67
HKD/GBP – 12.3920
NZD/GBP – 2.1047
SEK/GBP – 10.5505
US$/EURO – 1.3547
  

Sterling has struggled yesterday as a survey by the Confederation of British Industry unexpectedly showed that orders dropped in January. Wednesday’s unemployment figures showed that 2.5m people are out of work (the highest since last spring) and the number of 16-24 yr olds out of work is at a record high of 951,000. The CBI data and less than rosy employment figures contrast with Tuesday’s higher than expected inflation figures and adds to the dilemma that the Bank of England faces regarding monetary policy. Inflation is stubbornly high and any interest rate hikes to curb this could stifle the economic recovery. Sterling will be held back if unemployment and other fundamental figures continue to disappoint. Either way, I don’t think we will see any change from the BoE on interest rates or monetary policy until Q3 at the earliest. Out today, we have key retail sales data and mortgage approval figures – both of which could further dent the fundamental outlook for the UK so call in now for a live exchange rate.
 
In the euro zone, the euro strengthened by 0.5% against sterling after large ‘real money’ (i.e. non speculative) buying saw a significant market movement. Spain also came close to finalising plans for a second round of recapitalisation for the country’s troubled banks. This helped yields on Spanish bonds fall, essentially giving the country access to better borrowing rates. It is a quiet day for data releases, but the debt crisis remains top of the agenda for the markets – ensure you don’t lose out and speak to a member of the team sooner rather than later.
 
In the USA, the US dollar had a good day, gaining broadly as a wide array of data showed that the US recovery is firmly under way. Existing home sales showed nearly 500,000 more than expected and unemployment claims dropped by 40,000 on last month. The biggest concerns for the US recovery are house sales and employment, so these figures were a welcome change to previous months. It is quiet today, but there is still scope for significant movement.
 
Elsewhere, the commodity backed currencies (Australian, Canadian and NZ dollar, South African rand) suffered yesterday as China’s 9.8% quarterly GDP sparked rumours that the country would look to calm the economy down. This would impact demand for commodities and as such saw the currencies drop.

For more information on Smart Currency Exchange, please call our freephone: 0808 163 0102 (+44 (0)207 898 0541 from outside the UK) or visit our website at: SmartCurrencyExchange.com 

 

Posted January 20th, 2011 by Charles Purdy

Daily Currency Note

EURO/GBP - 1.1867
US$/GBP – 1.5952
CHF/GBP – 1.5237
CAN$/GBP – 1.5915
AUS$/GBP – 1.6045
ZAR/GBP – 11.1843
JPY/GBP
– 131.077
HKD/GBP – 12.4146
NZD/GBP – 2.0869
SEK/GBP – 10.5961
US$/EURO – 1.3439
 

Sterling slipped yesterday against the euro and US dollar dropping from the highs seen on Tuesday after UK inflation came in much higher than expected. Jobless claims dropped by 4,100 in December against an expected rise of 1,500 but analysts were very weary of a poor labour market in the next few months as public sector job cuts are set to take effect. Despite dropping below $1.60/£1, sterling remained up 0.1% on the day against the US dollar but fell 0.6% against the euro as the single currency got a boost from expectations that European officials will be able to navigate through the debt crisis and find a more long term solution. Sterling is likely to remain well supported against the major currencies after much higher than expected inflation figures on Tuesday – out today we have industrial order expectations, so get in touch now for a live exchange rate.
 
In the euro zone, the euro had a strong day yesterday and hit a two-month high against the US dollar overnight on expectations that policymakers in the region would put a more long term plan in place to solve the debt crisis. In addition, rumours that banks in Asia would look to hold euros also helped boost the euro. There has been a spate of ‘short covering’ where investors who were hoping to profit from a falling euro have bought back the currency – again, boosting the strength. Today, there is European consumer confidence data and we have already seen German PPI data come in better than expected.
 
In the USA, the US dollar held relatively steady following Tuesday’s broad fall against other currencies. However, disappointing earnings figures from Investment Bank Goldman Sachs and poor housing data did not help the US currency. Global risk appetite was given a boost as sentiment over a long term European solution improved – this saw the US dollar hit a 2-week low against the Swiss franc. Out today, there is home sales and manufacturing figures so call in for a live exchange rate.

Elsewhere, China’s GDP grew from 9.3% to 9.8% on the quarter and inflation came in slightly lower than expected. The lower inflation was good for the Australian dollar, as it means that China is unlikely to look at tightening monetary policy yet and as such export demand from Australia should remain high.

For more information on Smart Currency Exchange, please call our freephone: 0808 163 0102 (+44 (0)207 898 0541 from outside the UK) or visit our website at: SmartCurrencyExchange.com 

 

Posted January 19th, 2011 by Charles Purdy

Daily Currency Note

EURO/GBP - 1.1901
US$/GBP – 1.6015
CHF/GBP – 1.5362
CAN$/GBP – 1.5856
AUS$/GBP – 1.5928
ZAR/GBP – 11.0165
JPY/GBP
– 131.46
HKD/GBP – 12.4547
NZD/GBP – 2.0638
SEK/GBP – 10.6139
US$/EURO – 1.3455
 

Sterling surged to an 8 week high of $1.6060/£1 against the US dollar and came within touching distance of €1.20/£1 yesterday after December’s Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) data came in much higher than was initially expected. Higher oil prices drove CPI to an 8-month high of 3.7% analysts expecting around 3.3%. This yet again boosted calls for an interest rate hike and as such saw sterling strengthen across the board as financial markets anticipated moves to tighten monetary policy as early as May. The Bank of England is walking a very thin line and is anxious to avoid stifling the fragile growth we are seeing with interest rate hikes. Financial markets can get a little carried away at the first sign of big shifts in policy, and as such it is important to recognise that the Bank of England will take some time to decide on the next steps. The next major focus is on the minutes from last week’s meeting – released next week. It will give a key insight into the current thoughts of the policymakers, so call in now for a live exchange rate.

In the euro zone, the euro continued to post large gains against the US dollar after a huge jump in economic sentiment data from last month’s reading. The German ZEW economic sentiment indicator gives an idea of confidence in the region and it shot up from 4.3 to 15.4 and as a result saw the euro hit a daily high of $1.3465/€1. Heavy buying of euros by accounts in the Middle East and rumours that Russia was considering buying Spanish bonds again also helped boost the currency, but it failed to capitalise after European finance ministers agreed to delay strengthening the region’s rescue fund. Out today, there is current account data for the region, so call in now for a live exchange rate as there is a lot of volatility.
 
In the USA, the US dollar was on the back foot today – falling by over 1% against both the euro and sterling at points, before recovering towards the end of the day. Data was pretty thin on the ground as the currency took it’s momentum from UK and European events. However, there was some manufacturing data that showed a slight deterioration on last month. Be aware that volatility is back, so make sure you are in constant contact to take advantage and avoid losing out.
 
Elsewhere, continuing this week’s focus on the joint Chinese/ US Presidential summit and currency discussions over China’s artificially weak exchange rate, White House spokesman Robert Gibbs was yesterday quoted by Reuters as saying that “More must be done [to allow the Chinese yuan to strengthen]. That is an opinion that is held, not just by this country, but by many countries around the world”. It seems that the US is beginning to tighten the pressure on Chinese President Hu Jintao, so keep an eye on things this week as it could get interesting.

For more information on Smart Currency Exchange, please call our freephone: 0808 163 0102 (+44 (0)207 898 0541 from outside the UK) or visit our website at: SmartCurrencyExchange.com 

Posted January 18th, 2011 by Charles Purdy

Daily Currency Note

EURO/GBP - 1.1960
US$/GBP – 1.5971
CHF/GBP – 1.5315
CAN$/GBP – 1.5722
AUS$/GBP – 1.6002
ZAR/GBP – 10.9607
JPY/GBP
– 131.74
HKD/GBP – 12.4209
NZD/GBP – 2.0674
SEK/GBP – 10.6525
US$/EURO – 1.3350
 

Sterling jumped to an 8 week high against the US dollar and moved up against the euro after speculation that the Bank of England could raise interest rates as early as May. Sterling hit $1.5953/£1 and €1.1974/£1 as traders speculated that tomorrow’s Consumer Price Inflation could show inflation close to 4% – 2% above the Bank of England’s target level. The dilemma being faced by policy makers is that any interest rate hike could dent the UK’s fragile recovery – especially as the recent VAT hike and cuts have yet to take full effect. A higher than expected CPI figure is likely to see further sterling strength later today so ensure you call in now for a live exchange rate.
 
In the euro zone, the euro fell broadly yesterday after investors reassessed ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet’s call for interest rate rises last week and also saw that no ‘quick-fix’ was to be put in place for the euro zone’s bail out fund. The majority of finance ministers in the region today called for an increase in the lending capacity of the emergency fund to €700bn, but Germany was reluctant to push through urgent changes citing a calmer bond market and an aim to discuss ‘anti-crisis measures’ in more depth in March. Germany clearly does not want to increase the rescue fund, and as such sentiment towards the single currency slipped. Out today, there are economic sentiment figures for the region, so call in now for a live exchange rate.
 
Trading conditions were pretty thin in the USA with a public holiday, but off the back of euro weakness, the US dollar was up 0.65% against the euro but dipped against sterling on interest rate expectations. It did not see much reaction to comments from top Federal Reserve official Charles Plosser who did not rule out an interest rate rise in 2011 – it seems everyone wants to jump on the interest rate hike bandwagon. Out today, we have some manufacturing data and figures on foreign investment into the USA, so call in now for a live exchange rate.
 
Elsewhere, on the eve of Chinese President Hu Jintao’s visit to the USA for a summit with President Obama, a group of senators are looking to re-introduce a bill to combat China’s currency policies. Senator Charles Schumer said that the artificially low exchange rate was like a “boot on the throat” to the US economic recovery as it gave Chinese exporters an unfair advantage over their US counterparts by artificially keeping the goods cheaper internationally.

For more information on Smart Currency Exchange, please call our freephone: 0808 163 0102 (+44 (0)207 898 0541 from outside the UK) or visit our website at: SmartCurrencyExchange.com 

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