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Posted January 31st, 2012 by Charles Purdy

Daily Currency Note

EURO/GBP - 1.1944
US$/GBP – 1.5735
CHF/GBP – 1.4397
CAN$/GBP - 1.5737
AUS$/GBP – 1.4797
ZAR/GBP – 12.309
JPY/GBP – 120.04
HKD/GBP – 12.2036
NZD/GBP – 1.9122
SEK/GBP – 10.6011
AED/GBP – 5.7783
US$/EURO – 1.3167
INR/GBP – 77.92

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Sterling had a steady day as most of the news was generated elsewhere. The main news was in Europe with the EU summit meeting in Brussels. At one stage sterling hit a one month low against the euro hitting resistance at €1.19/£1. Although risk aversion was heightened there was little significant movement either against the US$ or the commodity backed currencies. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

The EU Economic Summit seemed to be a success with progress being made on fiscal unity and stricter budget disciplines. The only country to join the UK on the sidelines was the Czech Republic. One significant step forward was the agreement of a €500 billion European Stability Mechanism which is to come into force in July this year. This is much earlier than expected. The major short term problem for the euro is the on-going talks about Greek debt. Still very slow progress is being made. Default day is the 20th March 2012. Hopefully it will all be resolved well before that. The market view seems to be that any short term strength in the euro will be short lived. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

In the US we had the release of personal income and expenditure figures for December. These highlighted the fall in real spending by the US population towards the end of the year and show that although the US economy is moving forward it still has a long way to go. Markets were also subdued as we wait for a raft of further economic data during the course of this week both in the US [non-farm payrolls employment report] and elsewhere [Chinese manufacturing figures].

Elsewhere the Japanese yen gained ground on increased risk aversion. The belief though is that the Japanese government will try and devalue the Yen in the short term to fuel an export led recovery. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

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Posted January 30th, 2012 by Charles Purdy

Daily Currency Note

EURO/GBP - 1.1982
US$/GBP - 1.5668
CHF/GBP - 1.4454
CAN$/GBP - 1.5741
AUS$/GBP - 1.4778
ZAR/GBP - 12.2922
JPY/GBP - 120.88
HKD/GBP - 12.169
NZD/GBP - 1.9104
SEK/GBP - 10.659
AED/GBP - 5.7610
US$/EURO – 1.3092
INR/GBP - 77.62

For more information on Smart Currency Exchange, please call our freephone: 0808 163 0102 (+44 (0)207 898 0541 from outside the UK) or visit our website at: SmartCurrencyExchange.com

Sterling hit a 5 week high against the US dollar on Friday on speculation that agreement would be reached over the weekend in negotiations over Greek debt restructuring. However, as we start the week this has not happened yet. In addition, sterling strengthened on Friday against the euro as a member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee made it clear that a further round of Quantitative Easing in February’s meeting was not a done deal. This week sees a wide array of sector activity data in the form of construction, manufacturing and services PMI data which will give a good idea of how the economy is performing. In addition, house price figures are released – call in now for a live exchange rate.

In the euro zone, the performance of the euro last week was a major indicator of how sentiment has improved in the region. This week’s EU summit meeting will bring the issue of the European debt crisis to a fore once again. Key tasks on the agenda include completion of the framework for the ‘Fiscal Compact’ and formal approval of the European Stability Mechanism. Markets are sceptical that these goals will be achieved. In terms of data, there is Spanish GDP data released today that is expected to show a slight drop – however the focus will remain on Greece/ the EU summit. Call in now to avoid losing out.

In the USA, the US dollar stayed under pressure last week after the US Federal Reserve’s announcement that it will keep monetary policy loose for another 2 years. The performance of the equity markets will be interesting whilst the EU summit continues. Out later this week we have a wide array of unemployment figures including the ‘headline’ non-farm payroll figures – call in now to avoid losing out.

Elsewhere, the Japanese yen has strengthened in the past few days on the much looser monetary policy stance in the USA. The Swiss franc looks more and more vulnerable too. In addition, the South African rand fell away from a 3 month high against the US dollar as the EU summit began in Davos. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

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Posted January 27th, 2012 by Charles Purdy

Daily Currency Note

EURO/GBP - 1.1982
US$/GBP - 1.5668
CHF/GBP - 1.4454
CAN$/GBP - 1.5741
AUS$/GBP - 1.4778
ZAR/GBP - 12.2922
JPY/GBP - 120.88
HKD/GBP - 12.169
NZD/GBP - 1.9104
SEK/GBP - 10.659
AED/GBP - 5.7610
US$/EURO – 1.3092
INR/GBP - 77.62

For more information on Smart Currency Exchange, please call our freephone: 0808 163 0102 (+44 (0)207 898 0541 from outside the UK) or visit our website at: SmartCurrencyExchange.com 

Sterling fell to a four week low against the euro on Thursday as investors became optimistic over progress in Greek debt talks and concerned over UK economic weakness.  UK data from the Confederation of British Industry showed there was a far worse contraction in sales than had been anticipated.  Sterling strengthened against the US dollar, hitting the highest level against the US currency since December 22nd after breaking through $1.57/£1 on stronger. However, poor GDP  figures on Wednesday and the further likelihood of poor UK data are set to limit sterling’s upside against the US dollar over the longer term.

In the euro zone, the euro hit a 5 week high against the US dollar on speculation over the progress of Greek debt negotiations. Rumours circulated that Greece’s private creditors had agreed to lower the amount paid to them as interest on their bond holdings in order to reach agreement on time and avoid a messy default. This is set to dominate the headlines so call in now for a live exchange rate.

In the USA, the US dollar weakened yesterday and global stock markets gained as markets reacted to optimism over a potential solution to the Greek debt situation. In addition, the announcement earlier in the week that the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates on hold for up to 2 years helped drive risk appetite and deliver the first signs of a resurgent carry-trade. Out later today is US GDP data so call in now for a live exchange rate.

Elsewhere, Gold prices were steady at their highest level in over a month on the news of the Fed’s policy stance. Low interest rates make gold more attractive and help investors hedge against inflation, as they gain from increasing commodity prices that inevitably follows cheap borrowing costs.

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Posted January 26th, 2012 by Charles Purdy

Daily Currency Note

EURO/GBP - 1.1951
US$/GBP – 1.5641
CHF/GBP – 1.4431
CAN$/GBP - 1.5691
AUS$/GBP – 1.4722
ZAR/GBP – 12.384
JPY/GBP – 121.56
HKD/GBP – 12.156
NZD/GBP – 1.9088
SEK/GBP – 10.5642
AED/GBP – 5.7532
US$/EURO - 1.3104
INR/GBP - 78.17

For more information on Smart Currency Exchange, please call our freephone: 0808 163 0102 (+44 (0)207 898 0541 from outside the UK) or visit our website at: SmartCurrencyExchange.com 

Sterling fell against the US dollar yesterday, coming under pressure after figures showed that the UK economy contracted by more than expected in the final quarter of last year. With GDP figures showing a 0.2% contraction against an expected drop of 0.1%, there were market concerns that the Bank of England would look to ease monetary policy further. Minutes from the Bank’s last meeting showed that further asset purchases were “likely”, which essentially means definitely. Sterling made some gains against the euro as investors became concerned that the ECB would have to write down holdings of Greek debt. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

In the euro zone, the euro regained ground against the US dollar after the Federal Reserve pledged to maintain a ‘highly accommodative’ stance to monetary policy over the next 2 years. Whilst Germany released some positive economic data yesterday, there is still concern that there has been no formalised agreement on the euro zone crisis. Until this happens markets will remain very jittery.

In the USA, yesterday saw the announcement by the FOMC – or US equivalent of the Monetary Policy Committee. It pledged to keep interest rates at between 0 -0.25% until at least mid-2013. In addition, figures showed that output at US factories rose by 0.9% last month – the highest gain since December 2010 – further delivering on the recent positive run of US economic data.

Elsewhere, the Japanese yen fell off yesterday after figures showed that the country had lodged the first trade deficit since 1980. This prompted many investors to unwind holdings in the Japanese currency – traditionally a haven for global investors, backed by the long term trade surplus. Call in now for a live rate.

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Posted January 25th, 2012 by Charles Purdy

Daily Currency Note

EURO/GBP - 1.1948
US$/GBP – 1.5570
CHF/GBP – 1.4461
CAN$/GBP - 1.5752
AUS$/GBP – 1.4809
ZAR/GBP – 12.3520
JPY/GBP – 121.41
HKD/GBP – 12.0852
NZD/GBP – 1.9195
SEK/GBP – 10.5490
AED/GBP – 5.7290
US$/EURO – 1.3026
INR/GBP77.94

For more information on Smart Currency Exchange, please call our freephone: 0808 163 0102 (+44 (0)207 898 0541 from outside the UK) or visit our website at: SmartCurrencyExchange.com 

Sterling regained ground against the euro yesterday after hitting a 4 week low against the currency, however the pound struggled to make many gains as investors became concerned over further economic weakness in the UK. In a speech last night, Bank of England governor Mervyn King hinted at a further round of Quantitative Easing in the coming month’s meeting. Today sees the minutes from last month’s meeting which are expected to elaborate on this position. In addition, we have the 1st estimate GDP figures for the 4th Quarter of 2011, which are expected to show a contraction of the eUK economy in the last 3 months of the year. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

In the euro zone, the euro remained quite resilient yesterday helped by better PMI figures on economic activity. In addition, markets shook off the news that the Greek ‘PSI’ deal would be delayed further after Euro zone Finance Ministers rejected the current proposal after insisting that interest payments on the re-negotiated bonds should now be below 4%. The deadline for a new agreement has now been pushed back to February 13th. There is little in the calendar from Europe today, but events are likely to be driven by activity in the UK/ USA so ensure you don’t lose out and call in today.

In the USA, risk appetite has jumped overnight in Asian markets on the news late last night that iPhone maker Apple had reported a 73% rise in quarterly revenue, which saw shares in the company surge by 9% in after hours trading on the NASDAQ. Later on this evening, the focus shifts to the Federal Reserve and the FOMC interest rate meeting. This will be the first time that individual interest rate forecasts will be published. Call in now for a live price.

Elsewhere, the Royal Bank of New Zealand is likely to keep interest rates on hold at today’s meeting. With Europe causing issues and inflation declining sharply, many expect the RBNZ to keep rates on hold. Call in now for a live rate.

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Posted January 24th, 2012 by Charles Purdy

Daily Currency Note

EURO/GBP - 1.1954
US$/GBP – 1.5540
CHF/GBP – 1.4428
CAN$/GBP - 1.5691
AUS$/GBP – 1.4838
ZAR/GBP – 12.4261
JPY/GBP – 120.01
HKD/GBP – 12.0648
NZD/GBP – 1.9238
SEK/GBP – 10.5068
AED/GBP – 5.7144
US$/EURO - 1.3005
INR/GBP - 77.78

For more information on Smart Currency Exchange, please call our freephone: 0808 163 0102 (+44 (0)207 898 0541 from outside the UK) or visit our website at: SmartCurrencyExchange.com 

Nothing major to report. As noted yesterday, Wednesday will be a key day for releases as both the Bank of England release the minutes from their last meeting and the Federal Reserve meet. There is likely to be a lack of direction until this happens.
 
The euro has had a good few days gaining against sterling and the US$. Market opinion is that this is more on investors covering their short positions on the euro rather than any fundamental change in the euro’s fundamentals. This seems sensible as the euro zone still needs to agree the Greek bailout and find a solution to other euro zone countries debt problems.
 
An increase in risk appetite resulted in the US$ losing a bit of ground against sterling. Still in a fairly narrow range and as noted we await Wednesdays Federal Reserve meeting on which they will detail their expectations for the US economy. This is the first time they will be doing this and I am sure it will make for interesting reading.
 
Elsewhere commodity backed currencies benefited from increased risk appetite.

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Posted January 23rd, 2012 by Charles Purdy

Daily Currency Note

EURO/GBP - 1.2006
US$/GBP – 1.5532
CHF/GBP – 1.4503
CAN$/GBP - 1.5715
AUS$/GBP – 1.4784
ZAR/GBP – 12.3440
JPY/GBP – 119.62
HKD/GBP – 12.0510
NZD/GBP – 1.9194
SEK/GBP – 10.5474
AED/GBP – 5.703
US$/EURO - 1.2923
INR/GBP - 77.95

For more information on Smart Currency Exchange, please call our freephone: 0808 163 0102 (+44 (0)207 898 0541 from outside the UK) or visit our website at: SmartCurrencyExchange.com 

Will be an interesting week for sterling as the minutes of the last Bank of England meeting and economic growth data for the final quarter of 2011 are both released on Wednesday. The market will be very interested to see the BoE views on their programme of quantitative easing. The last increase to £375 billion will be used up by early February and given the expected poor economic growth for the final quarter of 2011 the market expectation is for further assistance. Quantitative easing is usually negative for sterling.

In Europe there is a meeting of the finance ministers. Unsure what progress will be made but it will be held against a backdrop of deteriorating economic data. We also have the final throes of the discussion between the Greek government and their lenders. Hasn’t been going well over the last few weeks so it seems to be make or break time. As with the whole history of the euro zone debt crisis there seems to be an inability to do things quickly and efficiently which increases volatility and uncertainty.

This week we have the Federal Reserve meeting. Detailed projections will be released regarding their thoughts on the US economy and its outlook for growth, employment and inflation. Interest rates in the US are not going to go up any time soon but the US economy does seem to be moving forward and at a higher rate of growth than that being experience in Europe. So although the US$ lost a bit of ground last week it should stay reasonably strong.

Elsewhere the Chinese economy is being watched very closely as the worries of a hard landing are increasing with it experiencing a property slump. This will be negative for the commodity backed currencies.
 

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Posted January 20th, 2012 by Charles Purdy

Daily Currency Note

EURO/GBP - 1.1962
US$/GBP - 1.5468
CHF/GBP - 1.4470
CAN$/GBP -
1.5703
AUS$/GBP - 1.4883
ZAR/GBP - 12.3394
JPY/GBP - 119.57
HKD/GBP - 12.0226
NZD/GBP - 1.9328
SEK/GBP - 10.5036
AED/GBP - 5.687 
US$/EURO - 1.2948
INR/GBP - 78.01

For more information on Smart Currency Exchange, please call our freephone: 0808 163 0102 (+44 (0)207 898 0541 from outside the UK) or visit our website at: SmartCurrencyExchange.com 

Sterling strengthened against the US dollar yesterday tracking gains by the euro against the US currency after strong demand at a Spanish bond auction saw improved risk appetite. Sterling however dropped below €1.20/£1 against the euro as a survey showed that consumer confidence in the UK fell to the lowest level for 7 years, which increased concerns over the fragile recovery and increased the chances that the Bank of England would look to increase Quantitative Easing as early as next month. Lower inflation earlier in the week had added to this viewpoint also so call in now to avoid losing out.
 
In the euro zone, it has been another turbulent week with the euro making somewhat of a recovery against its major counterparts as bond auctions and data have come in better than expected. So far the single currency is on track for the biggest rise against the US dollar in 3 months. One potential stumbling block this week has been Greece’s renegotiations of its bond repayments. If these talks break down yet again then Greece is likely to have a ‘disorderly’ default as opposed to the carefully managed one that is being attempted at the moment.
 
In the USA, the US dollar continues its negative correlation with risk appetite, dropping when markets feel more positive about the debt crisis in Europe. As a general rule of thumb, if there is poor news from Europe, sterling should strengthen against the euro and fall against the US dollar. The opposite is true when there is good news from Europe and a lower likelihood of widescale default. Out today there is home sales data so call in for a live exchange rate.
 
Elsewhere, figures released overnight showed that Chinese manufacturing has begun to contract, starting 2012 in sluggish mode. As a result the Australian dollar slipped marginally against the US dollar as a result. Call in now for a live exchange rate.
 

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Posted January 19th, 2012 by Charles Purdy

Daily Currency Note

EURO/GBP - 1.2001
US$/GBP – 1.5416
CHF/GBP – 1.4502
CAN$/GBP - 1.5598
AUS$/GBP – 1.4864
ZAR/GBP – 12.3176
JPY/GBP – 118.41
HKD/GBP – 11.9755
NZD/GBP – 1.9270
SEK/GBP – 10.5671
AED/GBP – 5.665
US$/EURO - 1.2846
INR/GBP - 77.775

For more information on Smart Currency Exchange, please call our freephone: 0808 163 0102 (+44 (0)207 898 0541 from outside the UK) or visit our website at: SmartCurrencyExchange.com 

Sterling hit the highest level against the US dollar for a week yesterday on news that the International Monetary Fund looked set to boost lending to support the euro and other riskier currencies. Data showed yesterday that the number of Britons claiming unemployment benefits had risen at a lower rate than expected in December. In addition, figures were released that showed that unemployment had crept higher to 8.4%. This did little to allay fears that the UK is heading for a double dip recession. There is no real UK data released today but call in now to avoid losing out to adverse market movements.
 
In the euro zone, the euro strengthened broadly against its major counterparts on a media report that the IMF was looking to increase its funding capacity. In addition, news circulated that credit rating agency Fitch did not expect Italy to default on its debt. Despite marginally better risk appetite, there is a high risk that negotiations between Greece and its creditors could break down that could trigger panic so call in now for a live exchange rate.
 
In the USA, the US dollar eased off yesterday as risk appetite was given a boost. Wholesale price inflation fell marginally and industrial production activity did not increase by as much as people had expected. Out today there is consumer price inflation, unemployment claims and further manufacturing data so call in now for a live exchange rate.
 
Elsewhere, crude oil prices jumped above $101 per barrel adding to gains made on Tuesday. Better than expected data and a weaker dollar helped give the commodity a boost.

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Posted January 18th, 2012 by Charles Purdy

Daily Currency Note

EURO/GBP - 1.2032
US$/GBP – 1.5356
CHF/GBP – 1.4551
CAN$/GBP - 1.5591
AUS$/GBP – 1.4791
ZAR/GBP – 12.3096
JPY/GBP – 117.72
HKD/GBP – 11.9142
NZD/GBP – 1.9130
SEK/GBP – 10.6031
AED/GBP – 5.637
US$/EURO - 1.2764
INR/GBP - 77.76

For more information on Smart Currency Exchange, please call our freephone: 0808 163 0102 (+44 (0)207 898 0541 from outside the UK) or visit our website at: SmartCurrencyExchange.com
 

Sterling slipped against the euro yesterday as falling inflation reinforced expectations that the Bank of England would ease monetary policy further in the coming months. UK inflation fell sharply in December with the CPI index dropping from 4.8% to 4.2% backing up the Bank of England’s view that inflation may have peaked. Many now expect this to have given a green light to the Bank to open the taps on further Quantitative Easing as early as next month. Many investors are becoming more and more concerned over poor data from the UK despite poor figures largely being ignored in recent weeks as markets look for alternatives to the euro. Out later today we have unemployment claims and average earnings so call in now for a live exchange rate.
 
In the euro zone, the euro strengthened overnight after strong Chinese data improved risk appetite in the Asian trading session. However, with key talks resuming between Greece and its creditors later today after they broke down earlier in the week, markets are tense. Only a voluntary agreement will suffice or we could be heading towards an imminent Greek default which will cause mayhem. Call in now for a live exchange rate.
 
In the USA, the US dollar weakened off after risk appetite was given a boost by a record jump in German economic sentiment yesterday. In addition, data released yesterday in the USA showed that manufacturing activity increased by more than expected. With the focus on the Greek renegotiations, expect the US dollar to see some strength today as investors look towards the currency as a safe haven. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

Elsewhere, yesterday saw Chinese GDP growth come in at 8.9% – beating expectations of a 8.7% rise. The Australian dollar strengthened as a result given the strong correlation between the currency and growth in China. Call in now for a live price to ensure you don’t lose out.

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