Smart Currency Rates and Comments 30th November 2012 – Euro getting stronger, call Smart to get the latest news
This week (Last week)
GBP/EUR – 1.2328 (GBP/EUR – 1.2362 )
GBP/USD – 1.6046 (GBP/USD – 1.5958 )
EUR/GBP – 0.8107 (EUR/GBP – 0.8085 )
EUR/USD – 1.3013 (EUR/USD – 1.2882 )
GBP/AED – 5.8930 (GBP/AED – 5.8605 )
GBP/AUD – 1.5387 (GBP/AUD – 1.5326 )
GBP/CAD – 1.5927 (GBP/CAD – 1.5912 )
GBP/CHF – 1.4852 (GBP/CHF – 1.4901 )
GBP/HKD – 12.4328 (GBP/HKD – 12.3712 )
GBP/INR – 87.44 (GBP/INR – 88.41 )
GBP/JPY – 132.51 (GBP/JPY – 131.41 )
GBP/NZD – 1.9515 (GBP/NZD – 1.9512 )
GBP/SEK – 10.6725 (GBP/SEK – 10.6229 )
GBP/ZAR – 14.0625 (GBP/ZAR – 14.2265 )
Increased risk appetite seems to have driven the market over the last 24 hours as we have seen sterling weaken towards 1.23 against the euro and push over 1.60 against the US dollar. Over the course of the week, sterling has some ups and downs as the global focus on the situation with Greece and the looming fiscal cliff in the US has led to market uncertainty and volatility. The main news from the UK was the surprise decision that the Governor of the Bank of Canada Mark Carney would be taking over from Mervyn King in July 2013 as the Governor of the Bank of England. The revised GDP data released confirmed that the UK’s economy has excited the double-dip recession, with the revised figures matching the preliminary data showing GDP increased by 1% in the third quarter and this helped sterling to strengthen. Please call in to get a detailed update from your trader.
The main news out of Europe this week was that the European finance ministers had agreed to give Greece the next of its bailout to the tune of €44 billion. In addition they agreed to ease the strict measures that were in place, effectively removing €40 billion pounds worth of debt. The markets produced a muted response as traders were left unimpressed by the actions taken at the Eurogroup meetings and worries spread surrounding how a deal on Greece is going to be implemented, as well as requiring further assistance beyond the new aid package. However on Thursday we saw increased risk appetite which helped support the euro even though the German unemployment data released, although in line with expectations, showed that it continued to increase. The President of the ECB is speaking today and a data showing the region wide rate of unemployment will also be released. Call in now to see how this affects the market.
Over the last 24 hours we have seen increased risk appetite weaken the US dollar. During the week the US dollar had stayed fairly range bound. The increased risk appetite came as a result of GDP data coming out at 2.7%, slightly below expectations; but, showing a strong rise from last quarter’s 2% reading highlighting steady growth in the US economy. The number of homes pending sale came out much higher than market expectation; but the number of new homes actually sold fell slightly short of analyst’s predictions. Optimism that the so-called Fiscal cliff could be resolved created risk appetite in the market; but, comments from one of the House Speaker said that the President needed to “get serious” underlines the fragile nature of the situation. In addition, this week we have also seen positive data released in the form of an increase in the demand for durable goods throughout October and US consumer confidence reaching a four year high in November. Get in touch now to take advantage of the most up to date price.
Elsewhere, the Japanese yen performed well this week reaching a one week high against the US dollar. The higher yielding currencies had a mixed week as an increase in risk appetite followed the Greek-aid decision and the optimism that the US fiscal cliff would be resolved with the South African rand hitting a two-week high yesterday; however, the Australian dollar struggled yesterday as investors speculate that interest rates could be cut in the near term. Monthly GDP data released from Canada will be the main release today and Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) from China will be released on Saturday. Call in now to speak to a trader.
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Smart Currency Rates and Comments 29th November 2012 – Sterling in the doldrums
GBP/EUR – 1.2361
GBP/USD – 1.6020
EUR/GBP – 0.8085
EUR/USD – 1.2957
GBP/AED – 5.880
GBP/AUD – 1.5317
GBP/CAD – 1.5888
GBP/CHF – 1.4875
GBP/HKD – 12.4100
GBP/INR – 88.23
GBP/JPY – 131.60
GBP/NZD – 1.9420
GBP/SEK – 10.6390
GBP/ZAR – 14.07
Sterling struggled yesterday against the higher yielding currencies whilst staying relatively range bound against the US dollar and the euro. Yesterday, one of the members of the Bank of England suggested that the central bank had not ruled out an increase in quantitative easing if it was necessary to boost the UK’s economy. Data released from the UK showed that lending to individuals fell by £0.3 billion in October, but, on a more positive note the number of mortgages approved reached a 10 month high. The Governor of the Bank of England is speaking today and we will also see the release of the central bank’s financial stability support, both of which should provide some insight into the state of the UK’s economy. Please call in to get a detailed update from your trader.
The euro fell broadly yesterday, as risk appetite decreased due to worries surrounding how a deal on Greece is going to be implemented, as well as requiring further assistance beyond the new aid package. Germany is preparing to vote on this new deal for Greece, with the German Finance Minister open to providing further support. However, the cautionary approach in dealing with the crisis continues to dampen the appeal of the single currency. The German preliminary consumer price index figures came out as expected showing a small decline but the money supply figures came out higher than forecast. Today we see the release of German unemployment data as well as the President of the Deutsche Bundesbank is also speaking. Given the importance of Germany to the Euro zone these will be carefully scrutinized and if anything unexpected occurs volatility is likely to be seen. Call in now.
The US dollar struggled yesterday as concerns about the impending fiscal cliff returned to the fore. The co-chairman of Obama’s 2010 fiscal commission has previously said he sees only a one in three chance that a deal will be reached between the president and Congress in time. The weakening was exaggerated by weaker than expected home sales results. Today sees the release of further home sales data as well as quarterly GDP data which will be very influential. Forecasts are for growth of 2.8%, if they are right, expect dollar to regain the lost ground, however the downward trend will surely continue if this figure isn’t met. Get in touch now to take advantage of the most up to date price.
Elsewhere, the biggest mover yesterday was the Japanese yen, reaching a one week high versus the US dollar, and managing to snap a prolonged decline against its major trading partners. News coming out of the US that an agreement on how to handle the so-called fiscal cliff remains someway off, led to a significant increase in the demand for traditionally safer assets. The Australian dollar remained subdued following Tuesday’s decline, as speculation remains rife that the economic outlook is not as healthy as previously thought dampened appetite for the higher yielding currency. Overnight we saw retail data released from Japan, along with an indication of business confidence from New Zealand. Call in now to see how this has influenced the markets and to get a live rate.
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Smart Currency Rates and Comments 28th November 2012 – Euro zone debt worries still to the fore
GBP/USD – 1.6004
EUR/GBP – 0.8074
EUR/USD – 1.2918
GBP/AED – 5.8771
GBP/AUD – 1.5304
GBP/CAD – 1.5906
GBP/CHF – 1.4910
GBP/HKD – 12.4056
GBP/INR – 88.83
GBP/JPY – 131.02
GBP/NZD – 1.9462
GBP/SEK – 10.7082
GBP/ZAR – 14.1216
Yesterday showed that sometimes it is better to travel than arrive. Agreement was finally reached on releasing the next round of Greek bailout funds of €44 billion but the effect on the euro was somewhat muted. In fact sterling performed better against most of the other major currencies yesterday even recovering back to 1.24 against the euro. The revised GDP data released yesterday confirmed that the UK’s economy has excited the double-dip recession, with the revised figures matching the preliminary data showing GDP increased by 1% in the third quarter and this helped sterling to strengthen. There was also speculation that the new agreement terms set out by European finance ministers are too lenient and will fail to stem Greece’s debt crisis. There is no significant data being released from the UK today; as a result, the focus will be on Greece and the worries surrounding the looming fiscal-cliff in the US. Please call in to get a detailed update from your trader.
The euro struggled yesterday despite a deal being struck on Monday night by the Eurozone finance ministers to ease the strict measures that are in place for Greece to receive the next tranche of its bailout funds. Many economists expected this news to cause the euro to strengthen; however, the opposite happened. This muted response from the markets suggests that traders are unimpressed by the actions taken at the Eurogroup meetings and that investors remain concerned that this new deal for Greece is not the solution; as a result, the euro was sold off. There is little significant data out from Europe today; but, any more news or rumours surrounding Greece could cause rapid price action. Call in now to see how this affects the market.
The US dollar remained fairly range bound against most of the other majors yesterday despite positive data coming out of the US. We saw the demand for durable goods on order in October increase the most in five months, along with consumer confidence reaching a four year high in November. Today new home sales figures will be released and will give us a good insight into the health of the US economy, resulting in its wide reaching effect. Get in touch now to lock in a price.
Elsewhere, it was a mixed day yesterday for many of the higher-yielding currencies. News that Eurozone ministers had finally reached an agreement over the next tranche of Greek bailout led to an increase in risk appetite, resulting in the Australian dollar touching a two month high on the back of the news. It was also good news for the New Zealand dollar, managing to snap its decline as data suggested that the Asian market is not as troublesome as previously thought. However belief later in the day that the Greek debt deal is not as robust as first thought led to a sense of risk-aversion in the markets, undoing many of the gains seen earlier in the day. The South African rand also struggled as news the nation’s debt will be included in the World Government Bond Index led to belief that the rand will remain one of the most volatile of currencies. Call in now to speak to a trader.
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Smart Currency Rates and Comments 27th November 2012 | A good day for Greece, will it be good for the euro?
GBP/EUR – 1.2346
GBP/USD – 1.6042
EUR/GBP – 0.8096
EUR/USD – 1.2989
GBP/AED – 5.8891
GBP/AUD – 1.5312
GBP/CAD – 1.5889
GBP/CHF – 1.4877
GBP/HKD – 12.4338
GBP/INR – 89.11
GBP/JPY – 132.04
GBP/NZD – 1.9489
GBP/SEK – 10.5732
GBP/ZAR – 14.1821
Sterling weakened slightly yesterday, slipping to 1.2330 against the euro before recovering in the afternoon and remaining relatively range bound against the majority of currencies, although, following the overnight decision to release the bailout funds to Greece we have seen the US dollar weaken on increased risk appetite. The main announcement from the UK yesterday was the surprise decision that the Governor of the Bank of Canada Mark Carney would be taking over from Mervyn King in July 2013 as the Governor of the Bank of England. The hope is that when he takes charge of the central bank he can help get the UK economy back on track. Revised quarterly GDP data released today is expected to match the preliminary reading at 1% growth, although some economists think there could be a slight downward revision. Please call in to get a detailed update from your trader.
The euro had a fairly mixed day yesterday before ultimately remaining range bound against its major trading peers. Overnight the next tranche of the Greek bailout of €44 billion was agreed to by the European finance ministers. Although this is clearly a very positive step for both the euro zone and Greece, initial market reaction has been muted which is probably due to the high level expectancy that agreement would be reached following last week’s meeting. German Consumer Climate data that came out yesterday was worse than expected, suggesting financial confidence is falling in the Eurozone’s powerhouse. Today sees very little data released.. Call in now to see if the agreement on Greece has had a delayed effect on the euro exchange rate and to get a live price.
The US dollar remained fairly tightly range bound against its major peers yesterday, with relatively little data being released anywhere in the world. Today is unlikely to be as calm, with a range of data being released over the afternoon. Monthly Durable Goods sales, and Consumer Confidence data are likely to be the most influential. Last month saw a swing to the positive after a series of poor results, if this month’s data is equally positive we could see dollar move on the announcement. Get in touch now to lock in a price.
Elsewhere, the biggest gainer yesterday was the Japanese yen due to a slight shift in risk aversion and as minutes from the Bank of Japan was released. The Philippine peso reached a four year high against the US dollar, whilst the Czech koruna, Norwegian krone and Polish zloty also all performed well. Inflation expectation and trade balance data was released from New Zealand overnight; but, little else is dues to be released today. Call in now to speak to a trader.
Smart Currency Rates and Comments 26th November 2012 | Will the euro stay in the ascendancy?
GBP/EUR – 1.2347
GBP/USD – 1.6014
EUR/GBP – 0.8092
EUR/USD – 1.2963
GBP/AED – 5.8791
GBP/AUD – 1.5311
GBP/CAD – 1.5882
GBP/CHF – 1.4968
GBP/HKD – 12.4110
GBP/INR – 89.12
GBP/JPY – 131.36
GBP/NZD – 1.9436
GBP/SEK – 10.6144
GBP/ZAR – 14.1835
Sterling had a mixed day on Friday. It strengthened against the US dollar but weakened against the euro and commodity backed currencies as risk appetite drove the market. At one stage sterling even pushed down to 1.233 against the euro and with the possibility of further weakness we could see a push towards the 1.225 level. Revised quarterly GDP data released this week will be the most significant announcement and is expected to match the preliminary reading at 1% growth. On Thursday various lending data is released with the household borrowing figures for October expected to show that the credit supply continues to loosen. With not much else released from the UK this week, sterling’s relative strength will take its lead from news produced elsewhere, with US data and the Europgroup meetings likely to cause the most volatility. Please call in to get a detailed update from your trader.
The euro performed well on Friday after better than expected business climate data from Germany showed that economic health had increased for the first time in seven months. The lack of negative data coming from the Eurogroup meetings also kept the euro strong. We should finally see a resolution of the Greek debt question that rumbled on through last week, which in theory will be good news for the economic future of the union and could cause the euro to strengthen further still as confidence increases in Europe. The other main release this week will be the Italian benchmark 10-year bond auction; but, the main focus of the global market will be firmly on today’s Eurogroup meetings. Get in touch now while the euro remains strong.
The US dollar lost ground against most of the other majors on Friday as risk appetite increased due to the renewed confidence in Europe off the back of positive progress with Greece and better than expected data released from Germany. Late Friday we saw the US dollar increase to over 1.60 against sterling. This week we have some significant data coming out of the US, in particular on Thursday with the release of GDP data for the third quarter. Other data includes durable goods orders which are a leading indicator of production, consumer confidence and other housing data. Call in now to reserve a rate of exchange.
Elsewhere, Canadian inflation data released on Friday was slightly better than expected posting a figure of 0.3%. The Russian rouble strengthened as demand was high to pay for taxes in Russia and the South African rand also performed well. This week, the main releases include Canadian GDP, Chinese manufacturing PMI and business confidence data from New Zealand. Call in now to speak to a trader.
Smart Currency Rates and Comments 23rd November 2012 | Sterling under pressure against the euro
GBP/EUR – 1.2362 (GBP/EUR – 1.2442)
GBP/USD – 1.5958 (GBP/USD – 1.5874)
EUR/GBP – 0.8085 (EUR/GBP – 0.8030)
EUR/USD – 1.2882 (EUR/USD – 1.2752)
GBP/AED – 5.8605 (GBP/AED – 5.8267)
GBP/AUD – 1.5326 (GBP/AUD – 1.5362)
GBP/CAD – 1.5912 (GBP/CAD – 1.5882)
GBP/CHF – 1.4901 (GBP/CHF – 1.4987)
GBP/HKD – 12.3712 (GBP/HKD – 12.3122)
GBP/INR – 88.41 (GBP/INR – 87.12)
GBP/JPY – 131.41 (GBP/JPY – 128.81)
GBP/NZD – 1.9512 (GBP/NZD – 1.9568)
GBP/SEK – 10.6229 (GBP/SEK – 10.7391)
GBP/ZAR – 14.2265 (GBP/ZAR – 14.0862)
Sterling fell to a near four week low against the euro yesterday weakening below the key 1.24 level. This followed a report from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) which stated that the manufacturing sector has continued to underperform and was at the lowest level for 10 months. The Monetary Policy Committee meeting minutes revealed the members voted 8-1 against an increase in quantitative easing with one member voting for a £25 billion increase. The Public sector net borrowing figures released showed that public borrowing had unexpectedly increased by £2.7 billion compared to this time last year. There is very little data released from the UK today but clearly sterling is under pressure against the euro and if it loses further ground we could soon find ourselves at 1.225 against the euro. Despite the US markets reopening following the Thanksgiving bank holiday, trading volumes are still expected to be thin as the US wakes up with a hangover. Please call in to get a detailed update from your trader.
Aside from the 0.5% hiccup on Wednesday following the surprise outcome of the Eurogroup meeting where no agreement was reached on Greek debt, the euro has had a fairly strong week – gaining over a cent against sterling during the course of the week and closing yesterday close to the key support level of 1.235. The euro strengthened, driven up by assurances from the German finance minister that the Greek debt problem will finally be removed next week, as only “technical issues” had prevented an agreement on Tuesday night. Better than expected French and German manufacturing data helped the euro continue to strengthen yesterday, further counteracting the negative pressure caused by the news from earlier in the week that France’s debt had been downgraded by Moody’s (one of the big three credit rating agencies). There was also a successful auction of Spanish government debt which underlines market confidence in the euro. Today sees the release of an influential German business climate survey, results have been weaker than expected in recent months. If results are positive it could support further strengthening of the euro, but expect sensitivity as the EU budget meetings continue. Markets could take a hit if the Anglo-German lead group of net contributors succeeds in its calls for a freeze on budgets. Call in now to take advantage of the strong euro.
The US dollar struggled this week as global confidence grew over the prospect of a deal on Greece-aid being met and following news that Barack Obama is increasingly hopeful of reaching an agreement to help evade the looming Fiscal Cliff. On the data front, better than expected housing data included Home Sales figures which came out at 4.79 million between October and November and the number of building permits issued increased in October, keeping the housing starts at its highest level since July 2008. Other releases included the weekly jobless claims data and manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) which came in above market expectations. One negative were the figures which showed that consumer sentiment has dropped from last month. With the Thanksgiving bank holiday celebrations over from yesterday, the US goes back to work today; however, very little significant data is due to be released. Call in now to speak to a trader.
Elsewhere, Chinese Manufacturing PMI data released yesterday was one of the bigger stories this week, expanding for the first time in over a year which increased risk appetite worldwide. Perhaps China’s economy will have a soft landing rather than the much feared hard landing. The South African rand struggled this week falling to a 3-year low versus the US dollar, retreating to just over 9.00; the lowest level since April 2009. The Swedish krona had a turbulent week as it was forecast that the central bank would cut interests rates by 0.25% next month and then by a further 0.25% in February 2013. The Australian dollar also struggled yesterday as traders started to speculate that the Reserve Bank of Australia could look to cut interest rate in the short term. The main release today will be the Canadian inflation data; but, there is not much other data expected to be announced; call in now to reserve a rate of exchange.
Smart Currency Rates and Comments 22nd November 2012 – Thanksgiving today so Europe will remain the focus
GBP/EUR – 1.2422
GBP/USD – 1.5956
EUR/GBP – 0.8047
EUR/USD – 1.2838
GBP/AED – 5.8581
GBP/AUD – 1.5378
GBP/CAD – 1.5902
GBP/CHF – 1.4962
GBP/HKD – 12.3712
GBP/INR – 88.03
GBP/JPY – 131.68
GBP/NZD – 1.9564
GBP/SEK – 10.7210
GBP/ZAR – 14.2805
Sterling had a mixed day, with volatility high in the early hours of the morning with the Eurogroup meeting dragging on, and no distinct resolution to the Greek situation forthcoming. The Monetary Policy Committee meeting minutes surprised some economists as the members voted 8-1 against an increase in quantitative easing with one member voting for a £25 billion increase, when most people had been predicting a 9-0 vote. The Public sector net borrowing figures releases showed that public finances are in a grim state of affairs, with public borrowing unexpectedly £2.7 billion higher than this time a year ago. There is very little data released from the UK today and with the US markets shut, the global focus will remain on Europe. Please call in to get a detailed update from your trader.
After taking a hit over night, dropping 0.5% in a few hours, euro rallied to regain those losses during the day. The European finance ministers failed to come to an agreement over how to finance the next tranche of Greek bailout, and that a new meeting is to take place next week which caused the euro to initially weaken. These fears were allayed somewhat as German Finance Minister explained that it was only technical issues that prevented a final agreement. What these “technical issues” actually are, is another question altogether. Today could see some volatility as markets react to French and German manufacturing data released in the morning. The EU Economic Summit also starts today, so expect markets to remains nervous as traders await announcements on the contentious issue of the EU budget, any whisper of David Cameron using the British veto could hit prices hard. Call in now to get the latest price.
The US dollar had a strong start to the day as risk appetite dominated the market due to the lack of resolution on the Greek problem from the Eurogroup meetings. On the data front, weekly jobless claims data and manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) came in above market expectations; however, figures released showed that consumer sentiment has dropped from last month. It is the Thanksgiving bank holiday in the US today, meaning the US markets are shut and no data will be released? As a result, trading volumes will be much lower than usual. Call in now to speak to a trader.
Elsewhere, the biggest mover yesterday was the South African rand, losing significant ground against major peers as continued speculation about a Greek bailout dampened risk-appetite. With European exports key to the nation’s economy, the troubled outlook saw the rand fall to a 3-year low versus the US dollar, retreating to just over 9.00; the lowest since April 2009. It was also a difficult day for the Australian and New Zealand dollars; with increased risk aversion reducing the demand for such higher-yielding assets. The situation was worsened on the news that declining Japanese imports were likely to affect output in the both countries which also caused the Japanese yen to be sold off sharply. Call in now to see if the situation improves and to get a live rate.
Smart Currency Rates and Comments 21st November 2012 – A Greek tragedy in the making? Hopefully not…
GBP/EUR – 1.2461
GBP/USD – 1.5901
EUR/GBP – 0.8022
EUR/USD – 1.2754
GBP/AED – 5.8380
GBP/AUD – 1.5342
GBP/CAD – 1.5864
GBP/CHF – 1.5010
GBP/HKD – 12.3276
GBP/INR – 87.85
GBP/JPY – 130.54
GBP/NZD – 1.9529
GBP/SEK – 10.7872
GBP/ZAR – 14.1655
Sterling gained ground this morning against the euro following the inability overnight of the Eurogroup to agree on Greece’s debt reduction programme. Truly remarkable how politicians can prevaricate while business confidence seeps away. Today’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting minutes will be the main release and whilst most economists are forecasting that there was a 9-0 vote against increasing quantitative easing, any variation away from this prediction is likely to cause volatility in the market. Other data released today includes the public sector net borrowing figures which are currently expected to show a significant reduction in the government’s borrowing requirement from the previous month. Please call in to get a detailed update from your trader.
Following the surprise outcome of the Eurogroup meeting where no agreement was reached on Greek debt, the euro has lost ground against both sterling and the US dollar. Yesterday the main news was that France’s debt had been downgraded by Moody’s, to match Standard and Poor’s investment rating, underlining the fragility of the French economy and the state of the Eurozone in general. However the euro did reach a 2 week high against the US dollar on the belief that the Eurogroup meetings would find a solution to the Greek aid gap and would grant Greece the next tranche of its bailout. How wrong the market was. The main release today will be the German benchmark 10 year bond auction and it will be interesting to see how much demand there is for this safe haven asset. Call now to book a price.
The US dollar has a mixed day yesterday as the markets kept a close eye on Europe and following the release of data showing that the number of building permits issued in the US has increased in October, keeping the housing starts at its highest level since July 2008. This positive data helped spark an increase in global confidence and as a result risk aversion dropped off. Today, we have the weekly jobless claims data being released a day early due to Thursday’s Thanksgiving bank holiday in the US. Other data released includes the manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and consumer sentiment figures. Call in now to speak to a trader.
Elsewhere, the Swedish krona was the worst performing currency yesterday as it was forecast that the central bank would cut interests rates by 0.25% next month and then by a further 0.25% in February 2013. The Australian dollar also struggled yesterday as traders start to speculate that the Reserve Bank of Australia could look to cut interest rate in the short term. The Japanese yen was slightly softer as traders start to speculate that the Bank of Japan’s may look to boost the economy by injecting more money into it. This is despite the central bank voting to keep quantitative easing on hold for the time being. There is not much data expected to be released throughout the day; but, call in now to reserve a rate of exchange.
Smart Currency Rates and Comments 20th November 2012 – A period of relative calm for sterling, will it last?
GBP/EUR – 1.2429
GBP/USD – 1.5904
EUR/GBP – 0.8042
EUR/USD – 1.2782
GBP/AED – 5.8391
GBP/AUD – 1.5286
GBP/CAD – 1.5854
GBP/CHF – 1.4972
GBP/HKD – 12.3268
GBP/INR – 87.51
GBP/JPY – 129.06
GBP/NZD – 1.9438
GBP/SEK – 10.7122
GBP/ZAR – 14.0651
Sterling struggled yesterday in the absence of any significant UK data being released, weakening off against the majority of currencies as risk appetite became the main driving force in the market. It is another quiet day for data in the UK today. The global focus will be firmly on the Eurogroup meeting today and the decision, if there is one, on Greek-aid. So pending any real catalyst to move sterling one way or the other we seem to be in a period of stability for sterling for the short term. Call in now to speak to a trader.
The euro enjoyed a day of gains yesterday as a report suggested that the Eurozone finance ministers will today give the go-ahead for a 44 billion euro aid payment to Greece. While the decision really amounts to little more than kicking the Greek debt problem further down the road, market nervousness will at least reduce down if the official announcement is made. As such, you might expect the euro to consolidate its gains as little other data will be released from Europe. Call now to book a price.
The US dollar struggled yesterday, losing ground against all major trading peers as a fall in risk aversion decreased demand for the safe-haven currency. News that Barack Obama is increasingly hopeful of reaching an agreement to help evade the looming Fiscal Cliff led to a sense of increased global confidence and a demand for riskier assets. We also saw the release of better than expected Home Sales data, coming out at 4.79 million between October and November which boosted market confidence. Today will see building permits data released for the same period and the markets will hope for a repeat of yesterday’s positive release. Call in now to see if the dollar will recover and to get a live rate.
Elsewhere, the Czech koruna, Hungarian forint and Polish zloty were the stand out performers yesterday as risk appetite drove the market. The Hungarian forint was particularly strong following better than expected third quarter public debt figures being released. Overnight, and first thing this morning we have had the Monetary Policy Meeting minutes from Australia and the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia was also speaking. Furthermore, the Bank of Japan had its monthly meeting, press conference and interest rate decision. There is not much else released throughout the day; but, call in now to reserve a rate of exchange.
Smart Currency Rates and Comments 19th November 2012 – Where to next for sterling?
GBP/EUR – 1.2452
GBP/USD – 1.5896
EUR/GBP – 0.8023
EUR/USD – 1.2756
GBP/AED – 5.8370
GBP/AUD – 1.5326
GBP/CAD – 1.5889
GBP/CHF – 1.5006
GBP/HKD – 12.3188
GBP/INR – 87.36
GBP/JPY – 129.16
GBP/NZD – 1.9514
GBP/SEK – 10.7432
GBP/ZAR – 14.0321
Sterling performed relatively well against the majority of currencies on Friday, helping to erase some of the losses seen earlier in the week. Growing speculation that the Bank of England is likely to increase quantitative easing to help boost the economy had seen sterling fall against the euro and US dollar throughout the week. On Wednesday we will have the minutes of the last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee released and we will see if the markets speculation has some substance. This week sees little data released from the United Kingdom apart from on Wednesday when we have public finances data released. Expectations are for a significant reduction in the government’s borrowing requirement from the previous month. Please call in to get a detailed update from your trader.
The euro struggled on Friday as concerns about Greece and Spain were at the forefront of traders’ minds once more. In theory the Greek question should be resolved this week with the Eurozone finance ministers meeting on Tuesday expected to come to a decision as to how they will finance the recent debt extension, as well as renegotiating long term targets. Last week’s announcement that Europe has slipped back into recession is likely to continue to affect the general trend. Expect to see prices react to manufacturing data from France and Germany, the core of Europe with forecasts being for a small decrease on last month. Get in touch now to lock in a price.
The US dollar was one of the best performing currencies on Friday due to its safe haven status as markets remain cautious due to the looming fiscal cliff and the on-going problems in Europe. Data released showed that industrial production had fallen by 0.4% when slight growth had been expected. This week’s main releases includes existing home sales, building permits, unemployment benefits and the Chairman of the Federal Bank is also speaking. Until we have some resolution regarding the so-called fiscal cliff, the situation in Greece and a potential Spanish bailout, one would expect the US dollar to remain relatively strong; but, there are no certainties in such a volatile market. Call in now to speak to a trader.
Elsewhere, the South African rand was the best performing currency on Friday strengthening against all of it major counter parts. The Swiss franc struggled following comments from the Chairman of the Swiss National Bank stating that the overvalued franc was damaging the economy. Overnight we saw inflation data from New Zealand come out much lower than expected and later this week we will see the release of the Monetary Policy Meeting minutes from Australia and the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia is also speaking. Japan’s central bank meets on Tuesday morning, there will be retail sales figures and inflation data from Canada and Chinese manufacturing PMI will also be announced. Call in now to reserve a rate of exchange.