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Posted January 31st, 2013 by Charles Purdy

US growth stumbles, will this help sterling? | Smart Daily Currency Note

GBP/EUR – 1.1670
GBP/USD – 1.5828
EUR/GBP – 0.8561
EUR/USD – 1.3544
GBP/AED – 5.8161
GBP/AUD – 1.5218
GBP/CAD – 1.5868
GBP/CHF – 1.4422
GBP/CNY – 9.83
GBP/HKD – 12.2665
GBP/HUF – 343.35
GBP/INR – 84.31
GBP/JPY – 143.83
GBP/NZD – 1.8930
GBP/RUB – 47.54
GBP/SEK – 10.0574
GBP/ZAR – 14.3361

Sterling

Sterling had a mixed day yesterday amid a number of positive developments released from the UK; but, still fell to 1.1630 against the euro at one stage. Mortgage approvals increased by more than forecast to the highest level since January 2012 showing that Bank of England scheme may have started to boost the "flow of credit" and support to the economy. Net Consumer Credit also expanded over the December period which was the largest advance in two years. The recent statements from the incoming Bank of England Governor implies there is scope to do more to support the economy with different types of stimulus and this is keeping sterling pressured, in addition to the uncertainty of Britain staying in the European Union. Today is a quiet one for data out of the UK, all eyes are will be on Fridays release of Manufacturing data. Markets will look elsewhere for influence today however, so call in now for the latest news and updates.

Euro

The euro continued to strengthen yesterday, reaching 1.1630 against sterling and 1.3570 against the US dollar at one stage. With the ECB being less inclined to ease monetary policy when compared to other central banks such as the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England, it is looking that the euro is set to continue on this rally. However, with the large selection of data set to be released within the Euro zone today, the euro’s course may possible change. The most influential data coming out today is the Italian 10 year bond auction and the Spanish GDP data. Furthermore, Germany’s president is also set to talk upon the  automotive industry early this afternoon. Call in now to discuss the state of the euro and for a live market quote from your trader.

US Dollar

Yesterday was a difficult day for the US dollar, as a combination of increasing global economic confidence and considerably worse than expected US GDP data dampened demand for the traditionally safe-haven asset. News that fourth quarter GDP had shown a contraction of 0.1% – dramatically below last quarter’s 3.1% growth and predictions of 1.1% growth – saw the dollar lose significant ground versus its major peers. Continued risk appetite from the Eurozone saw the US currency fall to its lowest level since November 2011 versus the euro, whilst also paring its recent gains versus the Japanese yen. Yesterday also saw the release of key employment data which came out better than forecast and indicates that Fridays more influential reading will also be positive, however it was not enough to restore full confidence in the US economy as expectations remain rife that the Federal reserve is likely to commit to further monetary easing. Today sees the release of the weekly unemployment claims, so call in now for the latest news and to get a live price from your trader.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, the New Zealand dollar experienced a torrid time on the market today sliding against all of its major counterparts. This day to forget was set in motion following speculation that the reserve bank will attempt to weaken the NZD.  The Canadian dollar fell against most of its trading counterparts following the release of the worse than expected GDP data out of the US. Today see’s the release of GDP data from Canada which is expected to show a monthly increase of 0.2%. The Japanese Yen also continued its trend of falling against all major counterparts. Call in now for the latest news and to speak to your trader.

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Posted January 30th, 2013 by Charles Purdy

Respite for sterling, will it be all too brief? | Smart Daily Currency Note

GBP/EUR – 1.1656
GBP/USD – 1.5753
EUR/GBP – 0.8574
EUR/USD – 1.3502
GBP/AED – 5.7839
GBP/AUD – 1.5059
GBP/CAD – 1.5785
GBP/CHF – 1.4528
GBP/CNY – 9.78
GBP/HKD – 12.2178
GBP/HUF – 344.21
GBP/INR – 84.16
GBP/JPY – 143.47
GBP/NZD – 1.8842
GBP/RUB – 47.30
GBP/SEK – 10.0280
GBP/ZAR – 14.2086

Sterling

Yesterday proved to be a stronger day for sterling than we have seen recently, managing to halt its continued declines versus many of its major trading peers. News that one of the Bank of England’s policy makers suggested that the UK’s economic growth is likely to grow between 2 to 2.5 per cent over the next 18 months – considerably higher than previous estimates – helped support sterling and see it increase from a five month low versus the US dollar. It was also a better day versus the euro, with sterling rising for the first time in four days, returning above the key 1.1700 level at one stage. Today we see the release of data showing the net lending to individuals and statistics demonstrating the number of new mortgage approvals which will provide an insight into the current levels of consumer spending and their confidence in the UK’s economy. Early suggestions are for a slight improvement, so call in now for the latest news and to get a live price.

Euro

It was a mixed day for the euro yesterday as the continued play-off between risk appetite and risk aversion continued to influence demand for the single currency. Increasing consumer confidence across the currency bloc, coupled with news that the European stock markets appreciated to a near two-year high saw the 17-nation currency rise to the highest level since December 2011 versus the US dollar. It was a different story versus higher yielding currencies – most notably the Swedish krona and Norwegian Krone – as improving global economic sentiment and risk appetite led to an increase in demand for  riskier assets. German Consumer Climate data released yesterday came out as forecast, reinforcing the belief that economic sentiment is improving in the Eurozone’s powerhouse economy. Today sees the release of Spanish GDP data, alongside  German 30-year and Italian benchmark 10-year bond auctions. Call in now for the latest news from the Eurozone and live prices on the euro.

US Dollar

It was a difficult day for the US dollar yesterday as a combination of considerably worse than forecast US Consumer Confidence and increasing global risk appetite decreased demand for the traditionally safe-haven currency. Continued improvements in global economic sentiment – most notably across the Eurozone – saw the US dollar fall to a 13-month low versus the euro, whilst also failing to continue its recent rise versus sterling. Today sees the release of key employment data, this is likely to give a clear insight into the current levels of economic health in advance of the official Non-Farm Employment data being released on Friday. The FOMC will be making a statement today following its latest decision on Monetary Policy. Furthermore, we also have the advanced GDP figures for the fourth quarter of 2012 released. Expectations are for a significant decline from the last release; but, are expected to show growth of over 1%, so call in now for the latest news and the see how this will impact the US dollar.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, it was a good day for the Australian and New Zealand dollar, performing well against the majority of their major trading peers. News that Australian Business Confidence had improved considerably – it was in fact the largest rebound in over a decade – from last month’s level saw the Australian dollar increase versus 14 of its 16 major partners. Similarly, an unexpected reduction in New Zealand’s trade deficit saw the currency snap a three-day decline versus the US dollar. It was also a better day for the Canadian dollar, managing to rise for the first time in four days versus the US dollar after it failed to break through the key level of CAD/USD 1.01, this is spite of the pessimistic outlook for economic growth in Canada. Today sees the release of Swiss economic barometer information in the morning, before the latest key Interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand late this evening. Call in now for the latest news and to speak to your trader.

If you haven’t opened a Smart account yet, call on 0808 163 0102 (+44 0207 898 0541) or fill out our online Account Form

Posted January 29th, 2013 by Charles Purdy

No respite for sterling as it continues to weaken | Smart Daily Currency Note

GBP/EUR – 1.1688
GBP/USD – 1.5706
EUR/GBP – 0.8549
EUR/USD – 1.3428
GBP/AED – 5.7655
GBP/AUD – 1.5024
GBP/CAD – 1.5794
GBP/CHF – 1.4542
GBP/CNY – 9.77
GBP/HKD – 12.1816
GBP/HUF – 348.07
GBP/INR – 84.31
GBP/JPY – 142.39
GBP/NZD – 1.8779
GBP/RUB – 47.35
GBP/SEK – 10.0986
GBP/ZAR – 14.2952

Sterling

It was once more a disappointing day for sterling yesterday, continuing its dramatic decline of last week versus its major trading partners.  Over the weekend, the incoming Bank of England Governor stated that he felt that there was room to look at further monetary easing if the UK’s economy continues to struggle which weighed heavily on sterling. With an increasingly pessimistic outlook hanging over the UK economy and demand for the British currency remaining muted, sterling was unable reverse any of its previous losses and even fell below 1.165 against the euro, its lowest level for over a year, before regaining a little bit of ground. It was a similar story versus the US dollar, weakening to the lowest level since August 2012 at 1.5678 by mid-afternoon before regaining a little bit of ground. Today sees no significant data scheduled to be released from the UK, so call in now for the latest news and to get a live price off your trader.

Euro

The euro enjoyed a strong start to the week yesterday, advancing against most of its major peers as improving economic confidence continued to filter through to the seventeen nation currency. News that Money Supply across the Eurozone had increased at a slower rate this month failed to dampen demand for the currency as the positive outlook for European Central Bank loan repayments issued last week, continued to help risk appetite return to the markets. The major gains for the euro came versus its UK counterpart, continuing to approach 1.16 level. Today’s major data release focuses on the Eurozone’s ‘economic powerhouse’, with German Consumer Climate likely to give a clear insight into the current level of consumer confidence within the country. Call in now to see how this will impact the euro and to get a live price.

US Dollar

Yesterday proved to be a strong day for the US dollar, as it advanced versus all but one of its most traded peers. The news that Core Durable Goods Orders came out better than forecast at 1.3% gave a good indication that production across the country is gradually starting to recover, helping to increase demand for the dollar. The US currency also enjoyed a fourth day of gains versus its Canadian counterpart – the longest streak since October – as continued signs of slower than expected economic growth weighed on the Canadian currency. The other major data release yesterday saw Pending Home Sales come out considerably worse than forecast, suggesting the US economy still remains fragile. Today’s major release is focused on Consumer Confidence – expected to show a slight decline from last month’s figure. Should this be the case, increased volatility for the US dollar is likely, so call in now for the latest news.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, one of the biggest movers of the day was the Japanese yen, strengthening versus the majority of its 16 major peers on the increasing speculation that the currency has been allowed to decline too far. Expectations amongst investors that the yen would be unlikely to continue its recent slide saw a renewed influx of demand for the Asian currency. It was a mixed day for the Swiss franc yesterday with the news that key finance ministers still feel the currency is overvalued, despite the recent slides seen versus the euro – which can be accrued to a return of risk appetite across the region as improved economic sentiment returns to the Eurozone. Today see key Business Confidence information released from Australia in the early hours, likely to give a clear insight into the current level of economic health in the country. Call in now to see how this may affect you and to get a live price.

If you haven’t opened a Smart account yet, call on 0808 163 0102 (+44 0207 898 0541) or fill out our online Account Form

Posted January 28th, 2013 by Charles Purdy

Sterling still friendless, still losing ground | Smart Daily Currency Note

GBP/EUR – 1.1691
GBP/USD – 1.5712
EUR/GBP – 0.8551
EUR/USD – 1.3428
GBP/AED – 5.7672
GBP/AUD – 1.5108
GBP/CAD – 1.5852
GBP/CHF – 1.4592
GBP/CNY – 9.77
GBP/HKD – 12.1793
GBP/HUF – 347.91
GBP/INR – 84.61
GBP/JPY – 142.61
GBP/NZD – 1.8844
GBP/RUB – 47.28
GBP/SEK – 10.1597
GBP/ZAR – 14.0805

Sterling

January, so far, has been a terrible month for sterling and with limited data out this week to reverse this trend it looks set to continue. It was, as many had anticipated, a difficult morning for sterling on Friday as worse than forecast GDP data saw the currency loose further ground against its major trading peers. News that the British Economy had contracted 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2012 saw sterling fall to a thirteen month and a five month low versus the euro and US dollar respectively. By early afternoon sterling had reversed most of its losses – recovering to 1.5827 against versus the dollar – although it remained at the lowest level since December 2011 versus its European counterpart. This morning we have opened down and close to 1.17 against the euro and below 1.575 against the US dollar. This week is relatively muted in terms of UK economic data, with the only major release on Friday being that of Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). Having seen Manufacturing Production data come out considerably below forecast earlier this month, any contraction is PMI is likely to have a detrimental impact on the already fragile sterling. Call in now for the latest news and to get a live price from your trader.

Euro

The euro enjoyed a strong end to the week on Friday, strengthening against all but one of its major trading partners as improved economic sentiment began to creep back into the 17 nation currency bloc. News that the European Central Bank is expecting repayment of a larger amount of three-year loans than previously estimated increased demand for the currency. Coupled with better than forecast German Business Climate data, the euro rose to the a near eleven-month high versus the US dollar, hitting 1.3479 in the afternoon, whilst also reaching 0.8537 versus sterling by mid-morning. This week sees a host of market data released from the Eurozone, with German Consumer Climate information likely to give a further indication of economic health in the Eurozone’s ‘powerhouse’. The end of the week sees Spanish and Italian manufacturing PMI data, along with the latest unemployment rate for the bloc as a whole. Call in now to see how this information may impact currency, and for a live rate.

US Dollar

The US dollar had a fairly muted day on Friday, with little data out, reacting mainly to news from its trading partners – most notably the disappointing British GDP data – rather than anything else. This week looks unlikely to be so calm however with influential data releases every day. Today, of particular note, is Durable Goods data, a key indicator of production followed by home sales data and we also have figures showing the number of homes pending sale. Later in the week, we have consumer confidence data on Tuesday and there is also a raft of employment related data released at the back end of the week, culminating with the highly influential non-farm employment data released on Friday. This is now particularly important given the link that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have expressly linked labour markets with monetary policy. The FOMC will also be making a statement on Wednesday following its latest decision on Monetary Policy. Furthermore we have preliminary GDP data released which is expected to show the economy grew by 1.3%. Get in touch now for the latest news and live rates.

Worldwide

Elsewhere the biggest mover of the day was the Canadian dollar, falling to a near six-month low versus its US counterpart on the news that key Consumer Price Index inflation data had come out much lower than forecast at -0.6%. Coupled with news that economic growth in the country is likely to be slower than thought saw the currency also lose considerable ground versus the euro and sterling. There were also significant losses for the Japanese yen, paring many of the gains seen earlier in the week, as speculation began to increase that the Bank of Japan is under pressure to further expand economic stimulus in the economy. This week’s major data releases sees the latest Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s interest rate decision on Wednesday, followed by key Canadian GDP data on Thursday and Australian Producer Price Index information in the early hours of Friday morning. Call in now to get the latest update from your trader.

If you haven’t opened a Smart account yet, call on 0808 163 0102 (+44 0207 898 0541) or fill out our online Account Form

Posted January 25th, 2013 by Charles Purdy

No respite and no support for sterling as it continues to weaken | Smart Daily Currency Note

This week    (Last week)
GBP/EUR – 1.1764    (GBP/EUR – 1.1930)
GBP/USD – 1.5786    (GBP/USD – 1.5981)
EUR/GBP – 0.8493    (EUR/GBP – 0.8378)
EUR/USD – 1.3396    (EUR/USD – 1.3382)
GBP/AED – 5.7972    (GBP/AED – 5.8665)
GBP/AUD – 1.5096    (GBP/AUD – 1.5188)
GBP/CAD – 1.5842    (GBP/CAD – 1.5771)
GBP/CHF – 1.4654    (GBP/CHF – 1.4956)
GBP/HKD – 12.3312    (GBP/HKD – 12.3851)
GBP/INR – 84.64    (GBP/INR – 86.03)
GBP/JPY – 142.92    (GBP/JPY – 143.86)
GBP/NZD – 1.8853    (GBP/NZD – 1.9122)
GBP/SEK – 10.2270    (GBP/SEK – 10.3762)
GBP/ZAR – 14.2402    (GBP/ZAR – 14.1214)

Sterling

A terrible start to 2013 for sterling losing five cents against both the euro and the US dollar. And this week saw this continue with sterling dropping below the 1.18 mark against the euro for the first time in 11 months, and falling to a five month low of 1.5750 against the US dollar. It has been a busy week in the UK, David Cameron’s much anticipated speech revealed plans for a referendum in 2017 on the UKs continued EU membership. Monetary Policy Committee meeting minutes revealed that whilst there were no votes in favour of a change to interest rates, one member voted in favour of increasing the current the level of quantitative easing. We had poor manufacturing data earlier in the week and yesterday’s figures showed that the relative level of current sales in January had fallen; but, by less than originally anticipated. Today’s main announcement sees the preliminary fourth quarter GDP figures released which will give a clear insight into the current level of economic health in the UK and is currently forecast to show that the economy contracted by 0.1%. If this figure is confirmed, it will put increased pressure on credit rating agencies to cut the UK’s gold plated AAA credit rating whilst putting added pressure on sterling. Call in now for a live rate and to see how this release could affect you.

Euro

The euro faired relatively well this week reaching 11 month highs against sterling and remaining range bound against the US dollar despite Spanish unemployment reaching record highs – overall jobless rate is at 26% and youth employment is at 55%. Euro-area wide services and manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) also disappointed the markets; but, traders seemed to have taken the lead from the better than expected German figures supporting the euro. Earlier in the week German Economic Sentiment came out considerably better than forecast and moreover, the European Central Bank President suggested late on Tuesday night that the worse of the region’s debt crisis may be over. Europe takes its lead from Germany once more today with the highly influential German Business Climate data released. Although the there is little other data coming out, the euro could have another positive day due to the effects of economic climates around the world. Call in now for a live market quote and an update on the Eurozone in general.

US Dollar

The US dollar had a slow start to the week with US markets closed on Monday in observance of Martin Luther King day as well as President Obama‚Äôs inauguration ceremony. During the week the US House of Representatives voted in favour of suspending the Debt ceiling limit until May 19 to avoid a default in the short term. Sales of existing homes in the US came out worse than expected; but, the reading still left total sales in 2012 at the highest level in the last five years. The weekly unemployment claims report was much better than expected, reinforcing the sentiment that the labour market in the US is recovering. Today see’s the release of important residential data which will show the number of new homes sold in the last month. The US dollars seems to be performing well as Obama begins another four years in the Oval office, call in now to see how the US dollar is expected to fair over the coming months.

Worldwide

The Japanese yen has continued to hog the spotlight this week, after a highly anticipated Bank of Japan meeting caused less waves than most had expected. The Japanese yen actually saw some strength return following the news that the Bank of Japan had set a new inflation target at 2.0% but made clear that it would delay introducing the unlimited monetary easing through additional asset purchases until 2014. Perhaps in reaction, yesterday, the Japanese economy minister said that he considers further weakening to be beneficial and that USD/JPY hitting 1/100 would not be a problem. Worse than forecast export results supported his suggestion, and the yen fell around half a percent against the US dollar. The Canadian dollar dropped to a near 10 week low against the dollar as the central bank help interests rates this week and looks less likely to implement an interest rate hike in the near future. The South African rand continued to fall this week, hitting a four year low as the central bank left interest rates unchanged and appeared to indicate that a weak rand wasn’t necessarily a bad thing. The Danish krone had a strong end to the week following the news that the Danish Central Bank had raised interest rates by 0.1%. Call in now to see how the market is trending.

If you haven’t opened a Smart account yet, call on 0808 163 0102 (+44 0207 898 0541) or fill out our online Account Form

Posted January 24th, 2013 by Charles Purdy

A steady day for sterling yesterday | Smart Daily Currency Note

GBP/EUR – 1.1892
GBP/USD – 1.5832
EUR/GBP – 0.8401
EUR/USD – 1.3297
GBP/AED – 5.8105
GBP/AUD – 1.5068
GBP/CAD – 1.5844
GBP/CHF – 1.4738
GBP/CNY – 9.8235
GBP/HKD – 12.2762
GBP/HUF – 350.1445
GBP/INR – 85.22
GBP/JPY – 141.52
GBP/NZD – 1.8832
GBP/RUB – 47.76
GBP/SEK – 10.3250
GBP/ZAR – 14.3285

Sterling

Surprisingly yesterday turned out to be somewhat of a muted day for sterling, despite the release of key unemployment data and David Cameron’s much anticipated press speech regarding the UK’s current stance on EU membership. As had been widely expected, Cameron outlined his stance on a potential referendum in 2017, however support for continued membership remains strong across the continent, helping to minimise any detrimental effect UK-EU severance could have upon sterling. With the Monetary Policy Committee Meeting Minutes coming out as expected yesterday – no votes in favour of a change to interest rates and one member voting in favour of increasing the current the level of quantitative easing.  Out today we have the number of new mortgages approved and figures showing the relative level of current sales from a survey of retail and wholesale companies. Traders will now turn their focus to Friday’s fourth quarter GDP release which will give a clear insight into the current level of economic health in the UK. Call in now for the latest news and to get a live price from your trader.

Euro

The euro struggled yesterday, falling against the US dollar – reaching a week low of 1.3302 – whilst also weakening off slightly against sterling. The European Central Bank President suggested late on Tuesday night that the worse of the region’s debt crisis may be over. Euro-are wide services and manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data released today will be the main news on the agenda with the main focus on the  German Manufacturing announcement. Call in now to find out the impact of this data and for a live market quote.

US Dollar

It was another mixed day for the US dollar yesterday as price action took its lead from data released across Europe. Yesterday evening the House of Representative voted in favour of suspending the Debt ceiling limit until May 19 to avoid  a default in the short term. This bill now needs to get passed to the Senate for approval. Today sees the release of the weekly unemployment claims report which traders will pay close attention to as it shows the current labour-market conditions that are highly correlated with consumer spending and furthermore, significant due to the Federal Banks recent stance that monetary policy will remain ultra-loose until the labour sector recovers. Call in today for a live rate from your trader.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, the biggest mover of the day was Canadian dollar, losing ground versus its major trading peers on news from the Bank of Canada that a planned increase in interest rates would have to be delayed as economic growth proves slower than previously anticipated. A 0.3% cut to the central bank’s growth forecast saw the Canadian dollar fall to a two month low versus its US counterpart and saw sterling rise to a week-high at 1.5862. It was also a tough day for the Australian dollar falling against all but one of its major partners, after key Consumer Price Index data came out slower than forecast at 0.2%, suggesting the Reserve Bank of Australia may be inclined to further cut interest rates. The main data release tomorrow focuses on China, with the latest flash Manufacturing data released in the early hours of this morning. Call in now for an update and to get a live price.

If you haven’t opened a Smart account yet, call on 0808 163 0102 (+44 0207 898 0541) or fill out our online Account Form

Posted January 23rd, 2013 by Charles Purdy

At best a steady day for sterling | Smart Daily Currency Note

GBP/EUR – 1.1896
GBP/USD – 1.5824
EUR/GBP – 0.8404
EUR/USD – 1.3288
GBP/AED – 5.8016
GBP/AUD – 1.5002
GBP/CAD – 1.5682
GBP/CHF – 1.4708
GBP/HKD – 12.2512
GBP/HUF – 350.1095
GBP/INR – 84.97
GBP/JPY – 139.77
GBP/NZD – 1.8782
GBP/SEK – 10.3239
GBP/ZAR – 14.0482

Sterling

Sterling had a mixed day yesterday. It dropped below 1.1850 against the euro for the first time since February 2012 in the early morning but rallied throughout the day regaining most of the losses. It was the same story as the last few days as very poor manufacturing data continued to weigh on prices; but, picked up in anticipation of the Governor of the Bank of England speech last night. The UK remains nervous at the prospect of a triple dip recession and investors will look towards Fridays preliminary GDP data release for a clearer indication of the state of the UK’s economy. Today, the key data comes out this morning, with both the minutes of last month’s Monetary Policy meeting and unemployment data being released. Furthermore, David Cameron is speaking this morning and his speech is expected to make clear his feelings about Britain’s continued involvement in the 27-nation European Union, with a referendum increasingly likely. Get in touch now for the latest news and trends.

Euro

The euro lost significant ground early in the morning versus its major trading partners on the rumours, (which were hastily dispelled hours later) that Jens Weidmann a representative to the ECB had resigned, which also sparked sudden losses in the German stock market. These losses – which saw the euro fall to its lowest level in 5 days versus the dollar; hitting a key support level at 1.3280 – were quickly erased as German Economic Sentiment came out considerably better than forecast, suggesting that economic health in the Eurozone’s powerhouse is better than anticipated; thus increasing demand for the 17-nation currency. Today we see very little data released from the Eurozone bar consumer confidence figures, however, traders will look to digest the finer details from the ECB President’s speech last night as well as looking elsewhere for influence. Call in now to see what impact this may have and to get a live price from your trader.

US Dollar

The US dollar had a mixed day against the euro yesterday with swings in both directions as data was released across Europe. Sales of existing homes in the US came out worse than expected; but, the reading still left total sales in 2012 at the highest level in the last five years. There is little information out of the US today; but, the first day of the 5 day World Economic Forum (WEF) annual meeting held in Davos takes place. This meeting is attended by a raft of influential figures including central bankers, prime ministers and finance ministers; and whilst some say you cannot expect any actual decisions to be made from these meetings, any comments from major players can cause volatility in the market. Rates can change quickly so get in touch for up to the second pricing and a live market update.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, the Japanese yen was the best performer yesterday as the first Bank of Japan meeting of the new Prime Minister Abe’s term announced that it would be setting a new 2.0% inflation target; but, critically that it would delay introducing the unlimited monetary easing through additional asset purchases until 2014. The Hungarian forint struggled yesterday following a report from Goldman Sachs suggesting the currency would struggle as they predict its central bank will look to loosen monetary policy. Core retail data from Canada disappointed showing a 0.3% drop when slight growth had been anticipated. Australian inflation data was released over night and we also have the interest rate decision from the Bank of Canada later on today. Call in now to see how the market is trending.

If you haven’t opened a Smart account yet, call on 0808 163 0102 (+44 0207 898 0541) or fill out our online Account Form

Posted January 22nd, 2013 by Charles Purdy

Sterling still has no friends and continues to weaken | Smart Daily Currency Note

GBP/EUR – 1.1856
GBP/USD – 1.5852
EUR/GBP – 0.8430
EUR/USD – 1.3347
GBP/AED – 5.8162
GBP/AUD – 1.5003
GBP/CAD – 1.5722
GBP/CHF – 1.4756
GBP/HKD – 12.2812
GBP/HUF – 347.62
GBP/INR – 84.98
GBP/JPY – 141.06
GBP/NZD – 1.8816
GBP/SEK – 10.2922
GBP/ZAR – 14.0068

Sterling

It was very much a mixed day for sterling yesterday, remaining distinctly range bound versus its major peers in the morning, before continuing last week’s trend and losing further ground later on in the day. Ever increasing speculation that the impending Monetary Policy Committee meeting minutes will reveal increased expectation of fourth-quarter contraction in GDP, coupled with an expectation for a future inflation rise continued to dampen demand for the British currency. Having gradually approached 1.59 versus the US dollar by mid-morning, sterling lost ground falling to just above 1.58 by early evening. There has been a slight rebound this morning pushing up towards 1.585. It was a similar story versus the euro, touching a 10-month low at 1.1870 yesterday and falling even lower overnight. Despite this negativity for sterling, UK stock markets have rallied with the FTSE 100 reaching a 5 new year high. The main data released today sees the latest figures for Public Sector Net Borrowing, along with Industrial Order Expectations – likely to give a clear indication into the strength or lack of it of UK economic health. Should these come out worse than forecast, it is likely that sterling will continue to decline, so call in now for the latest news and a live price from your trader.

Euro

The euro continued on its relentless run against sterling yesterday, breaking through the 1.19 support level and reaching 1.1870, whilst having a relatively steady day against the US dollar. The Eurozone Finance ministers met yesterday and will meet once more today, but in contrast to the meetings towards the end of the 2012 there is much less of a sense of panic about these early 2013 gatherings. The Finance misters met to discuss the state of Europe and the Eurozone in general with focus on the continued discussions over a Cyprus bailout, although this may take some time to complete, while the aid programmes to Portugal, Ireland, and Spain’s banks will all be reviewed. Any comments from ministers about the strength of the euro will of course be closely watched given the Head of the Eurogroups view that its current levels were ‘dangerously high’, furthermore, the President of the ECB president is also due to speak early this afternoon. Call in now for a live market vote and to hear the outcome of these highly influential meetings.

US Dollar

The US dollar traded in fairly narrow ranges yesterday with US markets closed in observance of Martin Luther King day as well as President Obama’s inauguration ceremony – trading volumes were noticeably reduced as a result. That being said, the US dollar did manage to strengthen to a near five-month high versus sterling whilst also weakening against the Japanese yen from its strongest level since June 2010 as the Bank of Japan started its two-day policy meeting in Tokyo. With businesses returning to work today, many eyes will be on the release of Existing Home Sales data – forecast to improve slightly – which will give a clear indication into the current level of economic health in the country. Call in now to see how this will affect the dollar and to get a live price from your trader.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, the Japanese yen took a turn for the better recovering from a two and a half year low against the US dollar and strengthening across all major currencies in anticipation of last night’s first Bank of Japan meeting of the new Prime Minister Abe’s term. Early this morning the Bank of Japan announced that it would be setting a new 2.0% inflation target but that it would delay introducing the unlimited monetary easing through additional asset purchases until 2014. The Japanese yen has strengthened since the announcement. The Swiss franc also had a good day yesterday, strengthening against most of its major counterparts as traders closed off positions to take profit following the marked sell off in the Swiss franc over the past week or so. The Swiss franc  recovered some of last week’s heavy drop against the euro – where it weakened to 1.2569 – the lowest since a cap had been imposed on the franc against the euro. Today will also see core retail data from Canada which will be good insight into the state of the Canadian economy. A main factor in this data are sales figures from the automotive industry and therefore a key insight into current spending trends.  Call in now to see how the market is trending.

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Posted January 21st, 2013 by Charles Purdy

No mates sterling continues to fall | Smart Daily Currency Note

GBP/EUR – 1.1914
GBP/USD – 1.5868
EUR/GBP – 0.8388
EUR/USD – 1.3314
GBP/AED – 5.8360
GBP/AUD – 1.5104
GBP/CAD – 1.5745
GBP/CHF – 1.4820
GBP/HKD – 12.3132
GBP/HUF – 349.32
GBP/INR – 85.44
GBP/JPY – 142.36
GBP/NZD – 1.8990
GBP/SEK – 10.3420
GBP/ZAR – 14.1014

Sterling

It was once more a disappointing day for sterling on Friday, losing further ground against most major currencies as weaker than forecast key retail sales data heaped further pressure on the already fragile UK economy. One of the biggest moves of the day came against the US dollar, where sterling fell to its weakest level since mid-November, before gaining support just above 1.5850 in the late afternoon whist challenging the 1.1900 mark against the euro. The British currency also saw a steep decline versus the Indian rupee, falling almost 2 per cent to the lowest level since early December. Speculation surrounding Britain’s continued involvement in the 27-nation European Union was also rife, as excerpts released from David Cameron’s delayed speech suggest a referendum is increasingly likely. With no date yet confirmed for the speech, investors will be keeping a close eye on sterling, with any loosening of the UK-EU relationship likely to further dampen confidence in the currency. This week sees a host of data released from the UK, with key focus on the Monetary Policy Committee meeting minutes on Wednesday, before Friday sees the release of preliminary GDP data; forecast to show the economy is likely to have contracted in the 4th quarter of 2012. Call in now to see how this affects sterling and to get a live price from your trader.

Euro

On Friday, the euro finished the week with a fall versus the US dollar, whilst pushing to fresh highs against sterling. The euro stabilised against the US dollar to a level from the previous day after a member of the European Central Bank Executive Board commented about how he expects that the banks repayments of funds would result in a rise of short-term interest rates. This week the markets will focus on the Eurogroup and the Economic and Financial Affairs Council (ECOFIN) meeting taking place on Monday And Tuesday where finance ministers all meet to discuss the state of Europe and the Eurozone in general. Any leaked information can cause a great deal of volatility. We also have a raft of data out of Europe with Euro-are wide services and manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data released. We also have an indicator of economic health in Germany being leased on Friday as the Institute for Economic Research will give out its monthly report on current business conditions and expectations for the next 6 months. Call in now to for an up to data market information.

US Dollar

The US dollar strengthened against sterling and the euro on Friday, finishing on 1.586 and 1.331 respectfully, this was in spite there being poor consumer sentiment data being released. Due to the national bank holiday the US dollar is set to have a slow start to the week; however, with a variety of data set to be released later in the week, we could see a lot of movement for the US dollar. Therefore, data to look out for is Tuesday’s Homes Sales data, Thursday’s weekly unemployment claims and data upon New Homes Sales coming out Friday. To find out the state of the US dollar and for a live market quote, call your trader now.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, the focus this week remains on Japan. The long anticipated first Bank of Japan meeting of the new Prime Minister Abe’s term finally begins today, with dramatic monetary easing expected to be implemented shortly, the Japanese yen was trading at around 90 at the end of last week so we could see a considerable shift if achieved. The Russian dubbed "currency war" will begin to come to the fore this week, as the Thai baht hit a 17 month high last week, and central bankers have raised the idea of acting to remedy the situation. The Swiss national bank may look to influence the value of the Swiss franc against the euro after it dropped through the 1.25 mark, saying that this should be set as the new low cap, and defended at all costs. It is also a busy week for Canada with retail sales and the interest rate decision from the Bank of Canada. For more news, and up to the second pricing, call in to your trader.

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Posted January 18th, 2013 by Charles Purdy

Smart Daily Currency Note | Sterling below 1.20 against the euro

This week (Last week)
GBP/EUR – 1.1930    (GBP/EUR – 1.2168)
GBP/USD – 1.5981    (GBP/USD – 1.6047)
EUR/GBP – 0.8378    (EUR/GBP – 0.8215)
EUR/USD – 1.3382    (EUR/USD – 1.3265)
GBP/AED – 5.8665    (GBP/AED – 5.9260)
GBP/AUD – 1.5188    (GBP/AUD – 1.5279)
GBP/CAD – 1.5771    (GBP/CAD – 1.5890)
GBP/CHF – 1.4956    (GBP/CHF – 1.4791)
GBP/HKD – 12.3851    (GBP/HKD – 12.5091)
GBP/INR – 86.03    (GBP/INR – 88.09)
GBP/JPY – 143.86    (GBP/JPY – 143.79)
GBP/NZD – 1.9122    (GBP/NZD – 1.9198)
GBP/SEK – 10.3762    (GBP/SEK – 10.4781)
GBP/ZAR – 14.1214    (GBP/ZAR – 13.9887)

Sterling

Yesterday proved once more to be a disappointing day for sterling as it crashed through the 1.20 level against the euro and continued to lose further ground versus its major peers. The damage of an increasingly pessimistic outlook for the UK economy further dampened demand for the British currency, whilst traders had been focussing on David Cameron’s now cancelled speech this morning where he was due to outline his plans on repatriating powers from the European Union. Yesterday eventually saw sterling fall below the key support level of 1.20 versus the euro – at one point touching 1.1953. This trend has continued this morning hitting lows last seen April 2012 – suggesting the currency could continue to fall considerably below this level. There was also disappointing news versus the US dollar, trending below the key 1.60 value for the second consecutive day; brought about mainly by the positive unemployment data emerging from America. The major data released from the UK this week has been Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data, remaining constant at 2.7%. Today sees the latest retail sales data, likely to give a clear insight into the current economic health of the UK. Should this data come out worse than forecast, we could easily see sterling’s decline pick up pace, so call in now for the latest news from your trader.

Euro

The start of this week saw the euro continue upon last week’s trend, strengthening against the US dollar – hitting the 1.3360 mark – whilst pressurising the psychological resistance level of 1.20 against sterling. The euro’s relentless surge did stall somewhat as a series of weak data was released – Germany’s Federal Statistics Office showing that GDP in 2012 came out below expectations at 0.7%, much lower than the 3% seen in 2011, whilst also slashing its growth forecast to 1% for 2013. This negative outlook for the Eurozone’s largest economy highlights how business confidence slipped away last year as the Euro zone politicians prevaricated on how to sort out their debt crisis. During the tail end of this week, the euro zone saw little data released; however, in spite of this the euro strengthened against sterling, hitting a ten month high. There is little data to be released within the euro zone today, so call in now for a live market quote with your trader.

US Dollar

The Federal Reserve Chairman started the week with a speech warning that the fiscal cliff remains a threat to the US economy; in spite of this, the US dollar held its ground, pushing up through the week on the back of a series of good data releases. Retail sales brought positivity with results exceeding expectations, whilst strong employment data helped push the US dollar higher as unemployment rates are now so closely linked with monetary policy. Today sees the release of consumer economic sentiment data, which is forecast to rise, so expect the trend to continue as uncertainty surrounds the so-called “currency war”. Call our traders and see how the reveal of financial confidence among consumers will change the rates.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, the focus has remained on Japan this week with the yen gaining in the first half of the week as traders speculated that the government would refrain from deliberately weakening the currency to boost exports. This trend then reversed in the later stage of week, with the Japanese yen dropping back to a two-and-a-half year low yesterday. Japan are not alone in expressing a desire to deliberately weaken their currency – Thailand have said the same after the Thai baht hit a 17 month high yesterday, and the Danish have also joined in after their currency reached a record high this month. Russian politicians claim that the world is on the brink of a “currency war” as politicians look to influence currency prices to their advantage. Get in touch for an update and the latest prices.

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