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Posted April 15th, 2013 by Charles Purdy

Can we have another steady week for sterling? | Smart Daily Currency Note

GBP/EUR – 1.1710
GBP/USD – 1.5316
EUR/GBP – 0.8536
EUR/USD – 1.3068
GBP/AED – 5.6220
GBP/AUD – 1.4670
GBP/CAD – 1.5610
GBP/CHF – 1.4252
GBP/CNY – 9.47
GBP/HKD – 11.8812
GBP/HUF – 345.92
GBP/INR – 83.64
GBP/JPY – 150.14
GBP/NZD – 1.8009
GBP/RUB – 47.94
GBP/SEK – 9.7624
GBP/ZAR – 13.7821

Sterling

Sterling showed no drastic change before the weekend against its major partners with exception to the Japanese yen where it lost ground for the first time in over a week. A quiet day for data in the UK was however influenced by  data released elsewhere including weaker than expected US retail data. This week see’s the release of important UK inflation data, retail sales figures as well as the Bank of England’s inflation report which should give a good indication of their expectations. However, the most influential piece of news coming from the UK this week will be the meeting minutes from the latest Bank of England meeting. Traders will be nervous in the run up to Wednesdays release wondering if any more members voted in favour of extending the current monetary easing program. Call in now to get live rates for sterling.

Euro

The resilience of the euro lately has been surprising given the significant structural issues regarding Cyprus, Portugal, or Italian politics, and this week may start showing signs of vulnerability following the strength in Australian, Canadian and Scandinavian currencies. Big news before the weekend came in the shape of an impending ratification of a 10 billion Euro bailout for Cyprus, though there are worries this may have to be extended by up to 6 billion. Today will see seasonally adjusted trade balance data released though this tends to have a muted effect on the markets as it does not include Germany and France who publish theirs earlier. European inflation data and  comments from the European Central Bank President on Tuesday could well set the tone for Euro movement over the week. Call your dedicated trader now to see how this affects your business.

US Dollar

The US dollar had a mixed reaction before the weekend to US retail sales data, which surprised in underperforming and falling 0.4% in March. This boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing cycle will roll on for the time being, though the dollar declined from a four-year peak against the Japanese yen. Some reports before the weekend showed American confidence at a nine-month low despite some encouraging news and a strong equity market. Building Permits figures and inflation data are due to be released on Tuesday and this will shed light on how the dollar is reacting to the monetary stimulus programme. Call in now for reactions throughout this week.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, the Romanian leu performed well on Friday after two major investment banks encouraged its clients to buy Romanian bonds at auction this week whilst Asian currencies continued to outperform following the Bank of Japans recent aggressive monetary easing policy. It is a busy week on the data front and early this morning we have seen inflation data released from China. The governor of the Bank of Japan also spoke following the yen getting ever closer to its target price of 100 against the US dollar last week. The question now would seem to be whether they can slow the fall and this week at the G20 meetings we expect the finance chiefs to remind Japan about its pledge to not drive down the value of the yen. Tonight the minutes of this month’s Australian Monetary Policy Committee meeting are released, though with no change in rates two weeks ago, expect market reaction to be muted. Wednesday sees the Bank of Canada update on interest rates and at present no change is expected. Call in today for an update on your currency, and the latest rates.

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Posted April 12th, 2013 by Charles Purdy

A steady week for sterling | Smart Daily Currency Note

This week                 (Last week)
GBP/EUR – 1.1738      (GBP/EUR – 1.1786)
GBP/USD – 1.5378      (GBP/USD – 1.5208)
EUR/GBP – 0.8516      (EUR/GBP – 0.8483)
EUR/USD – 1.3088       (EUR/USD – 1.2903)
GBP/AED – 5.6452     (GBP/AED – 5.5862)
GBP/AUD – 1.4572     (GBP/AUD – 1.4588)
GBP/CAD – 1.5536       (GBP/CAD – 1.5419)
GBP/CHF – 1.4316      (GBP/CHF – 1.4337)
GBP/HKD – 11.9184    (GBP/HKD – 11.806)
GBP/INR – 83.62         (GBP/INR – 88.37)
GBP/JPY – 152.78       (GBP/JPY – 146.40)
GBP/NZD – 1.7838       (GBP/NZD – 1.8080)
GBP/SEK – 9.7532      (GBP/SEK – 9.9109)
GBP/ZAR – 13.7124       (GBP/ZAR – 13.9127)

Sterling

Sterling remained fairly range bound yesterday following the solid industrial output data released on Tuesday which increased belief that the UK should avoid a triple-dip recession. Sterling remains close to a two-month high against the US dollar and edged near to a four year high against the Japanese yen. These gains are likely to be limited however until GDP data from the first quarter of 2013 is released later in the month, and in anticipation of a new Governor of the Bank of England who starts his tenure in July. Today a speech from the Bank of England’s deputy governor is likely to provide hints to monetary policy going forwards. Call in to see how this impacts Sterling.

Euro

The euro started the day on the front foot on the back of improved French manufacturing figures for February, which beat forecasts. Furthermore, figures from Greece show that deposit inflows were valued at more than €1.5 billion for March, going against market expectations that the Cypriot banking crisis would cause significant outflows in other troubled European nations. However, this positivity was not enough to prevent the euro losing ground later on as poor industrial production data from Spain and Italy. Later today, the single currency will be watched closely as the European Central Bank releases its monthly bulletin which may well provide further hints regarding a potential interest rate cut in the near future. Call in for more reaction from the markets.

US Dollar

The US dollar had a steady day yesterday, with its only real significant movement against the yen, hitting a four-year high. By mistake, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released their meeting minutes 5 hours early because they were inadvertently sent early to a list of individuals who usually receive the information after release time. The minutes fortified expectations that we will see an end to a period of bond buying sooner than expected. Some FOMC policymakers favoured slowing the pace of asset purchases whilst others looked to stop quantitative easing by the end of the year (if labour conditions improved as expected), though market reactions to this were relatively muted. Today we have unemployment claims data released, though the focus this week will be on Friday’s retail sales and inflation data. Call your trader to see how prices are affected.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, the biggest loser yesterday was the Japanese yen which continued its slump, falling to its lowest level against the US dollar for four years as the Japanese Central Bank reiterated plans for its stimulus program and how monetary policy would not be altered. Norway’s kroner was also having a bad day against its major counterparts after an unexpected slowdown in growth increased the possibility of a cut in interest rates. The Australian dollar traded close to recent highs; performing well on most fronts after imports in China, Australian’s biggest trade partner, unexpectedly rose. Overnight we saw labour data released from Australia, but little else is due to be released. Get in touch now for the latest news and rates on your currency.

If you haven’t opened a Smart account yet, call on 0808 163 0102 (+44 0207 898 0541) or fill out our online Account Form

Posted April 11th, 2013 by Charles Purdy

Sterling holds steady | Smart Daily Currency Note

GBP/EUR – 1.1714
GBP/USD – 1.5318
EUR/GBP – 0.8534
EUR/USD – 1.3058
GBP/AED – 5.6242
GBP/AUD – 1.4551
GBP/CAD – 1.5532
GBP/CHF – 1.4286
GBP/CNY – 9.47
GBP/HKD – 11.8832
GBP/HUF – 347.61
GBP/INR – 83.24
GBP/JPY – 152.62
GBP/NZD – 1.7832
GBP/RUB – 47.28
GBP/SEK – 9.7909
GBP/ZAR – 13.6691

Sterling

Sterling remained fairly range bound yesterday following the solid industrial output data released on Tuesday which increased belief that the UK should avoid a triple-dip recession. Sterling remains close to a two-month high against the US dollar and edged near to a four year high against the Japanese yen. These gains are likely to be limited however until GDP data from the first quarter of 2013 is released later in the month, and in anticipation of a new Governor of the Bank of England who starts his tenure in July. Today a speech from the Bank of England’s deputy governor is likely to provide hints to monetary policy going forwards. Call in to see how this impacts Sterling.

Euro

The euro started the day on the front foot on the back of improved French manufacturing figures for February, which beat forecasts. Furthermore, figures from Greece show that deposit inflows were valued at more than €1.5 billion for March, going against market expectations that the Cypriot banking crisis would cause significant outflows in other troubled European nations. However, this positivity was not enough to prevent the euro losing ground later on as poor industrial production data from Spain and Italy. Later today, the single currency will be watched closely as the European Central Bank releases its monthly bulletin which may well provide further hints regarding a potential interest rate cut in the near future. Call in for more reaction from the markets.

US Dollar

The US dollar had a steady day yesterday, with its only real significant movement against the yen, hitting a four-year high. By mistake, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released their meeting minutes 5 hours early because they were inadvertently sent early to a list of individuals who usually receive the information after release time. The minutes fortified expectations that we will see an end to a period of bond buying sooner than expected. Some FOMC policymakers favoured slowing the pace of asset purchases whilst others looked to stop quantitative easing by the end of the year (if labour conditions improved as expected), though market reactions to this were relatively muted. Today we have unemployment claims data released, though the focus this week will be on Friday’s retail sales and inflation data. Call your trader to see how prices are affected.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, the biggest loser yesterday was the Japanese yen which continued its slump, falling to its lowest level against the US dollar for four years as the Japanese Central Bank reiterated plans for its stimulus program and how monetary policy would not be altered. Norway’s kroner was also having a bad day against its major counterparts after an unexpected slowdown in growth increased the possibility of a cut in interest rates. The Australian dollar traded close to recent highs; performing well on most fronts after imports in China, Australian’s biggest trade partner, unexpectedly rose. Overnight we saw labour data released from Australia, but little else is due to be released. Get in touch now for the latest news and rates on your currency.

If you haven’t opened a Smart account yet, call on 0808 163 0102 (+44 0207 898 0541) or fill out our online Account Form

Posted April 10th, 2013 by Charles Purdy

The US dollar continues to weaken | Smart Daily Currency Note

GBP/EUR – 1.1712
GBP/USD – 1.5324
EUR/GBP – 0.8535
EUR/USD – 1.3072
GBP/AED – 5.6178
GBP/AUD – 1.4582
GBP/CAD – 1.5580
GBP/CHF – 1.4287
GBP/CNY – 9.48
GBP/HKD – 11.8876
GBP/HUF – 347.38
GBP/INR – 83.46
GBP/JPY – 151.91
GBP/NZD – 1.7962
GBP/RUB – 47.59
GBP/SEK – 9.7946
GBP/ZAR – 13.6865

Sterling

Sterling performed relatively well yesterday strengthening close to a six-week high against the US dollar on the back of positive UK data. It also made gains against the Euro but then lost ground throughout the afternoon. Along with positive retail sales levels being released, industrial output and manufacturing figures both came out better than forecast; supporting the belief that the UK will avoid a triple-dip recession. Recent positive data indicates the UK could now be moving towards a slow but sustained recovery, as a result, some traders feel that the Monetary Policy Committee may promote a more neutral stance for the rest of the year. We may see an increasing number of central bank officials take a more constrained attitude towards credit and monetary policy. That being said, the new Governor of the Bank of England starts his tenure in July and is renowned for his accommodative stance on monetary policy. Today and indeed this week it is reasonably quiet for sterling news, call in now for the latest live rates.

Euro

The euro performed strongly yesterday, showing modest gains over the majority of its major counterparts – most notably in regard to the US dollar against which it was trading at monthly highs by the end of the afternoon. Political pressure may act as a catalyst for further growth as Spanish officials encouraged expansionary measures to address fragmented capital markets, and the US Treasury Secretary implored Spain and surrounding countries to adopt policies that foster consumer demand in the face of stagnant growth and inflation. On the data front German trade figures beat expectations but showed a marked reduction in exports whilst imports also dropped whilst French data showed that their trade gap had widened. The European Central Bank, for its part, is increasingly showing a willingness to reduce interest rates to record lows, and the Governing Council may follow through on its easing cycle in the near future. This morning will see the release of French Industrial Production Data which should give an indication of wider EU economic health. Get in touch for the latest rates.

US Dollar

The US dollar struggled to hold its ground on Tuesday weakening against the euro and sterling although it did fall from close to its four-year highs against the yen. Some investors feel that the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy may evolve to favour tighter controls and a more restrictive credit policy as the central bank seems to be gradually straying from its quantitative easing cycle with expectations for economic growth on the rise. This evening will bring light on this as the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting are released and should shine a light on deeper economic conditions influencing their vote on interest rate levels. Other data released today will include the Federal Budget balance figures and we will also have a 10-year bond auction. Be in touch for the latest updates.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, after declining rapidly for four days, the Japanese yen strengthened against the US dollar and moved away from the four-year low of 99.66. The general decline of the yen is still expected to continue as the aggressive quantitative easing takes hold, but yesterday saw a brief respite as traders appeared to reflect on what has been a significant movement. The poor performance of yen and the dollar in the last few days has caused an increase in risk appetite from which the Australian dollar has benefited seeing it strengthen against the majority of its trading partners. The Thai baht was the stand-out performer of the Asian currencies yesterday, rising to its highest level against the US dollar since 1997. However, there are some concerns that the currency has strengthened too quickly of late and the Bank of Thailand may alter policy in future in order to slow down its rise. Data released today in Japan regarding monthly machinery orders and monthly unemployment data from Australia will have an impact on the currencies going forward. Call in now for live rates and up to the minute information.

If you haven’t opened a Smart account yet, call on 0808 163 0102 (+44 0207 898 0541) or fill out our online Account Form

Posted April 9th, 2013 by Charles Purdy

Will todays manufacturing data help lift sterling? | Smart Daily Currency Note

GBP/EUR – 1.1724
GBP/USD – 1.5254
EUR/GBP – 0.8530
EUR/USD – 1.3002
GBP/AED – 5.5996
GBP/AUD – 1.4632
GBP/CAD – 1.5522
GBP/CHF – 1.4292
GBP/CNY – 9.44
GBP/HKD – 11.8370
GBP/HUF – 349.06
GBP/INR – 83.17
GBP/JPY – 150.82
GBP/NZD – 1.8001
GBP/RUB – 47.64
GBP/SEK – 9.7824
GBP/ZAR – 13.7182

Sterling

Sterling performed poorly yesterday, tumbling against all major currencies bar the Japanese yen. After reaching a one month high paired with its dollar counterpart towards the end of last week, the rate dropped back to below 1.5250 yesterday afternoon. Having been a quiet day for affective data, it is likely that general caution regarding the nation’s precarious economic situation and the on-going speculation concerning whether or not we see further quantitative easing have influenced the slip. Furthermore, some traders feel that sterling was “over-bought” at the end of last week and so we are seeing these positions unwind. Today however, manufacturing output figures being released should give traders further indication of Britain’s economic health, and moreover this will be followed by a monthly GDP estimate from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR). Call in now for live rates and up to the minute information.

Euro

The euro had a strong start to the week, climbing back above the psychological 1.30 level against the dollar by lunchtime yesterday as Russia committed to restructuring Cyprus’ 2.5 billion euro loan of 2011, whilst Portugal declared promises to step up its austerity drive following their Constitutional Court’s decision not to cut payments to pensioners and public service employees. The country’s next bailout package will be reviewed with a ‘growth-friendly’ perspective according to the EU President as many countries struggle to put a cohesive economic scaffolding in place. Indeed, many governments are relying increasingly on monetary support and it appears increasingly likely that the European Central Bank may have to lower interest rates later in the Spring. Other data released yesterday showed that Investor Confidence for April had sank to its lowest reading of 2013. The single-currency has regained some momentum recently and today’s data will certainly be watched closely by investors. The main announcement will be the Manufacturing PMI figures but alongside this we also have inflation data in Germany and more unemployment data from Spain . Stay up-to date with news and prices with Smart.

US Dollar

The start of the week has been relatively quiet for the US dollar with the markets nervous in the run up to last night’s Federal Markets conference. As always, particular attention was given to the Federal Reserve Chairman’s speech addressing America’s financial stability as well as investors keeping one eye on the release on Wednesday of the meeting minutes from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Today sees the monthly report on wholesale inventories released as the currency’s performance continues to respond to disappointing employment figures from last week. Call in for the latest news and live quote from your trader.

Worldwide

Elsewhere the big story yesterday came from Japan with the yen breaking through the 99 mark against the US dollar for the first time in nearly 4 years. The Bank of Japan has openly targeted a rate of 100, pumping money into the economy in an effort to drive inflation up, and exchange rates down. The Hungarian forint was the biggest mover of the day, gaining over a percent against sterling as a major bank announced that interest free loans would be made available to small companies to boost the economy. The Polish zloty was not far behind, also making large gains on speculation of an interest rate cut in the near future. Canadian Building Permit data released today is expected to be a marked improvement on last month; expect the Canadian dollar to benefit if it is. Call in now for the latest news on your currency pair.

If you haven’t opened a Smart account yet, call on 0808 163 0102 (+44 0207 898 0541) or fill out our online Account Form

Posted April 8th, 2013 by Charles Purdy

Sterling rises to a six week high against the Dollar | Smart Daily Currency Note

GBP/EUR – 1.1794
GBP/USD – 1.5328
EUR/GBP – 0.8447
EUR/USD – 1.2988
GBP/AED – 5.6258
GBP/AUD – 1.4771
GBP/CAD – 1.5594
GBP/CHF – 1.4328
GBP/CNY – 9.50
GBP/HKD – 11.8926
GBP/HUF – 352.24
GBP/INR – 83.86
GBP/JPY – 151.05
GBP/NZD – 1.8182
GBP/RUB – 48.42
GBP/SEK – 9.8662
GBP/ZAR – 13.9132

Sterling

Sterling had a relatively positive, if quiet end to last week as it strengthened to a six week high against the US dollar to rise above 1.53 on Friday afternoon, whilst seeing little movement against the euro. The UK’s economic calendar is much quieter this week, with the main releases coming on Tuesday in the form of the influential monthly manufacturing data whilst Trade Balance figures will also be announced. The Bank of England voted to keep quantitative easing on hold last week, but speculation regarding future loosening of monetary policy is still rife. On-going speculation regarding further easing will continue to effect sterling’s relative strength on a continuous basis, whilst data released this week may cause more of a knee-jerk reaction in the market. Call in now for live rates and up to the minute information.

Euro

The euro climbed to a 1 week high against the US dollar on Friday after a string of poor unemployment data was released from the States. This move came in spite of a raft of negativity across Europe which included data revealing that retail spending had contracted earlier in the year, final GDP figures portraying a 0.6% contraction in the eurozone as a whole and the ECB declaring that commercial banks would be obliged to repay over 8 billion euros of the three-year loans this week which is likely to put a dampener on the forecast for growth as Europe confronts more restrictive credit conditions. Despite earlier signs of economic stability, German Factory Orders remained on a downward trend and decisions on further bailout funds for Greece are expected to be postponed. On this note, the ECB may well look to lower interest rates as the deep-rooted recession yields more price volatility, and indeed the single currency may struggle to hold its ground as the outlook remains gloomy. The main events this week will be the Eurogroup and ECONFIN meetings on Friday and Saturday respectively, where the proposed banking union will be one of the main topics of conversation. We will also have the ECB’s monthly bulletin which will provide further insight into the cental banks current view on the state of the economy, French and German industrial production data and an Italian 10-year bond auction. Call in now for the leanest update on the euro.

US Dollar

The US dollar suffered badly on Friday on news that the employment market produced just 88,000 jobs through March; under half of forecast expectations causing the currency to drop starkly in comparison to its euro and sterling counterparts, though it still held against the yen as Japanese quantitative easing further undermined the strength of the currency. Further concern was caused by the news that labour participation sank to its lowest level since 1979, with half a million having left the workforce although the overall unemployment rate did drop to 7.6%. This week, the main focus will be on the Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting minutes released on Wednesday where we will see how the central bank came about its decisions at the mast meeting. Furthermore, the minutes can often indicate when a change in policy may be likely – however, following last weeks terrible labour data, the chance of monetary policy being tightened in the near term has been significantly lowered. Other data out of the states includes, consumer sentiment statistics, inflation related data and retail sales figures. Call in now to speak to your trader and for the latest market information.

Worldwide

Friday saw the Canadian dollar’s worst day for nine months through a combination of disappointing monthly employment statistics and weak trade balance data having been released. This week however there may be some chance of recovery with important building permit issue data being released on Tuesday. The Japanese yen continued to tumble on Friday following last weeks decision to implement an ultra-loose monetary policy in order to drive up inflation, furthemore, the yen will continue to be watched closely this week and overnight we saw the release of Japanese current account figures. It is a busy week for China with inflation data and Trade Balance statistics due to be announced on Monday and Wednesday respectively. Not only will these figures decisively influence the relative strength of the Chinese renminbi, but also in turn have an notable effect on all commodity-backed currencies due to China’s influence on the market as the world’s biggest manufacturer. Other data released this week includes business confidence data from New Zealand and labour data from Australia. Get in touch for the latest rates.

If you haven’t opened a Smart account yet, call on 0808 163 0102 (+44 0207 898 0541) or fill out our online Account Form

Posted April 5th, 2013 by Charles Purdy

Sterling has a “steady” week | Smart Daily Currency Note

This week                            (Last week)
GBP/EUR – 1.1786           (GBP/EUR – 1.1838)
GBP/USD – 1.5208           (GBP/USD – 1.5148)
EUR/GBP – 0.8483           (EUR/GBP – 0.8445)
EUR/USD – 1.2903           (EUR/USD – 1.2786)
GBP/AED – 5.5862           (GBP/AED – 5.5642)
GBP/AUD – 1.4588          (GBP/AUD – 1.4532)
GBP/CAD – 1.5419           (GBP/CAD – 1.5412)
GBP/CHF – 1.4337            (GBP/CHF – 1.4412)
GBP/HKD – 11.806           (GBP/HKD – 11.7540)
GBP/INR – 83.37               (GBP/INR – 82.28)
GBP/JPY – 146.40             (GBP/JPY – 142.86)
GBP/NZD – 1.8080           (GBP/NZD – 1.8087)
GBP/SEK – 9.9109            (GBP/SEK – 9.8687)
GBP/ZAR – 13.9127         (GBP/ZAR – 14.0182)

Sterling

Sterling has had a steady week which contrasts to its loss of value and high volatility in the first quarter of this year and also given there was lots of news this week. The Bank of England met and decided not to inject a wave of fresh stimulus into Britain’s ailing economy but instead hold the current level of asset purchases steady. They also kept interest rates on hold. Sterling saw a marginal rise following Britain’s services sector recording its strongest growth in several months. This was in contrast to the data from the Manufacturing and Construction Purchase Manager’s Indices (PMI) which once again disappointed, causing sterling to fall by up to a per cent midweek against its major counterparts. The most important factor though was the news from the country’s dominant services sector which makes up 75% of the economy’s output suggesting the UK may well dodge a triple dip recession having picked up steam throughout March. Call us now for the latest news and up to the second prices.

Euro

It was a busy week in Europe with the ECB keeping interest rates on hold and the news that the International Monetary Fund would provide 10 billion euros of aid to Cyprus. The comments from the President of the ECB also helped calm the markets when he outlined that the central bank will keep an accommodative monetary policy whilst stating that the model that has been taken for Cyprus is not a template for future bailouts. On a more negative tone, unemployment rates have now reached record highs of 12% highlighting the probability of compounded contraction in the first quarter of this year. Manufacturing PMI in Europe showed another month of contraction as did the Services sector, in spite of beating market estimates. The final GDP reading released this morning is expected to confirm that the Eurozone contracted by -0.6%, whilst retail sales data is also projected to fall by -0.3%. Call in now for the latest rates and a live update.

US Dollar

The US dollar has had a mixed week and was then weakened significantly yesterday evening following comments from one of the members of the Federal Open Market Committee who said the current monetary policy is “over accommodative” and that imbalances could "unwind in a disruptive manner”. PMI data this week also disappointed, falling short of market estimates but still showed clear industry expansion for both the Services and non-Services sectors. On the job market front, the ADP National Employment Report came out weaker than expected as did the number of new people claiming unemployment related benefits. With these poor releases in mind and the Federal Bank’s monetary policy being so closely linked to the labour market, today’s highly influential non-farm unemployment data and overall rate of unemployment will be of particular importance to the US dollar relative strength in the short term.  Other data released from the States today includes trade balance data, so get in touch for the latest news and market updates with Smart.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, the Japanese yen was once again the big story of the week, making gains as traders started to bet against the new Governor imposing the ultra-loose monetary policy that had originally been touted but was then sold off aggressively after the new Governor exceeded many analysts expectations by expanding  its monetary stimulus program by doubling the monthly purchases in an attempt to drive up inflation. The Australian dollar also had a busy week after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept interest rates on hold and positive data was released in the form of building approvals statistics, retail sales data and figures showing  the nation’s trade gap had narrowed. It is a busy day for Canada with unemployment data, trade balance figures and PMI data all on the economic calendar leading to the potential for increased market activity for the Canadian dollar.

If you haven’t opened a Smart account yet, call on 0808 163 0102 (+44 0207 898 0541) or fill out our online Account Form

Posted April 4th, 2013 by Charles Purdy

What will the Bank of England do today? | Smart Daily Currency Note

GBP/EUR – 1.1756
GBP/USD – 1.5076
EUR/GBP – 0.8504
EUR/USD – 1.2821
GBP/AED – 5.5352
GBP/AUD – 1.4462
GBP/CAD – 1.5314
GBP/CHF – 1.4298
GBP/CNY – 9.34
GBP/HKD – 11.6980
GBP/HUF – 355.68
GBP/INR – 82.28
GBP/JPY – 143.62
GBP/NZD – 1.7970
GBP/RUB – 47.82
GBP/SEK – 9.8431
GBP/ZAR – 13.9271

Sterling

Despite worse than expected Construction Purchase Managers Index (PMI) data yesterday sterling had a fairly steady day. While it traded in a very tight range against the euro just below 1.18 mark, sterling gained against the US dollar on the hope that UK Services PMI would be positive tomorrow, and that the Bank of England will refrain from extending its quantitative easing programs. Last month three of the nine members of the monetary policy committee voted in favour of a further asset purchasing and any deviation from this figure will affect sterling dramatically. This morning sterling has been under pressure and has lost ground as worries begin to mount on a negative outcome from the Bank of England meeting. Call us now for the latest news and up to the second prices.

Euro

The 17-nation currency rose against most of its major peers as the International Monetary Fund announced it would provide 10 billion euros of aid to Cyprus. Inflation estimates released in the Eurozone for March came out slightly above expectations at 1.7%, but did little to influence the relative strength of the euro. The main news on the economic agenda today will be the ECB meeting and its announcement on interest rates which are expected to remain unchanged. Other data released today will include the Spanish and French ten-year bond auctions, as well as the Services PMI data that is released across Europe. A busy day for Europe and an increased chance of volatility, call in now for the latest developments.

US Dollar

The US dollar struggled yesterday following reports outlining less job creation than forecast in the US private sector and a slowdown in growth across the services industry, which contrasts negatively with the encouraging signs of recovery within the world’s largest economy over the last few months. The ADP National Employment Report, following weak manufacturing data on Monday, indicated that momentum had stalled after an encouraging run of data recently whilst the services and employment indices dropped below economist’s forecasts. Several members of the Federal Reserve will speak today including the Chairman of the Federal  Bank and these speeches often provide insights as to future monetary policy and can affect currency movements so be in touch for the latest news and market updates with Smart.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, the Russian rouble had a weak day yesterday; falling further than in recent weeks it against the central bank’s Euro/US dollar basket, and was the worst performing of 31 major currencies. The fall in value was a result of the biggest outflow of capital from Russia in over a year – a fallout from Europe’s financial crisis, and indicative of wider uncertainty globally. The South African rand performed relatively well as better than expected business confidence figures were released, whilst the Australian dollar reacted positively after figures showed the nation’s trade gap had narrowed. The Japanese yen made considerable gains against all of its major trading peers yesterday as traders started to bet against the new Governor imposing the ultra-loose monetary policy that had originally been predicted but overnight we saw the Japanese yen weaken dramatically after the new Governor expanded its monetary stimulus program by doubling the monthly purchases in an attempt to drive up inflation. This move exceeded many analysts expectations, hence the aggressive reaction in the market. Call in to speak to your trader and for a live update from the market.

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Posted April 3rd, 2013 by Charles Purdy

Is the UK headed for a triple dip recession? | Smart Daily Currency Note

GBP/EUR – 1.1792
GBP/USD – 1.5097
EUR/GBP – 0.8479
EUR/USD – 1.2802
GBP/AED – 5.5427
GBP/AUD – 1.4428
GBP/CAD – 1.5317
GBP/CHF – 1.4350
GBP/CNY – 9.3585
GBP/HKD – 11.72
GBP/HUF – 355.91
GBP/INR – 82.08
GBP/JPY – 141.05
GBP/NZD – 1.7938
GBP/RUB – 47.39
GBP/SEK – 9.8071
GBP/ZAR – 13.9412

Sterling

Sterling was one of the worst performing currencies yesterday, struggling to hold onto recent gains as the Manufacturing Purchase Managers Index (PMI) data once again disappointed, coming in half a percent lower than expected, causing sterling to drop by as much as 1% against its major counterparts. Today is the second of the three major PMI releases, this time from the construction sector, with nervous mutterings developing about the potential for further quantitative easing from Thursday’s Bank of England meeting if results continue in a weak vein. Tomorrow is the crucial day, with PMI figures from the Services sector – which makes up over 75% of the UK’s GDP – being touted as the key to avoiding the so-called triple dip recession. Get in touch now for the latest news and up to the second prices.

Euro

In the Eurozone, headlines today were of unemployment rates climbing to record highs. The figure was revised to 12%: more than it has been since its formation in 1999 – highlighting the probability of compounded contraction in the first quarter of this year. This had an impact on the single currency; falling as it has against the US dollar and Japanese yen. Having been under pressure on this front for much of the trading session, selling accelerated with news of Cyprus’ Finance Minister resigning. It is clear that Europe’s economy is still facing huge problems, with troubles on its periphery exacerbating the issue. CPI inflation data will be the main release on the agenda today, but traders will have one eye on Thursday’s ECB meeting where a decision to retain interest rates at 0.75% is expected. Be in touch with Smart for current prices and further developments.

US Dollar

The US dollar performed reasonably well on a quiet day yesterday, making considerable gains against sterling and strengthening slightly against euro following the release of poor data in the UK and across Europe. As expected, monthly data regarding orders placed with manufacturers in the world’s largest economy showed an encouraging increase causing the US dollar to remain steady whilst sterling and the single currency continued to struggle. Today will see more varied data released including crude oil inventories, monthly employment data and monthly non-manufacturing data, which could all have some bearing on performance throughout the day. Call in now for live rates and up to date information.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, strong data released from China boosted demand for commodity-backed currencies – particularly the Canadian dollar which reached a five-week high against its US counterpart. The Australian dollar also performed well following the decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to keep interest rates on hold and in the run up to trade balance data released late last night. Get in touch to keep track of these the latest rates.

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Posted April 2nd, 2013 by Charles Purdy

Sterling in for a busy week | Smart Daily Currency Note

GBP/EUR – 1.1836
GBP/USD – 1.5223
EUR/GBP – 0.8445
EUR/USD – 1.2859
GBP/AED – 5.5864
GBP/AUD – 1.4557
GBP/CAD – 1.5463
GBP/CHF – 1.4394
GBP/CNY – 9.4414
GBP/HKD – 11.8250
GBP/HUF – 359.56
GBP/INR – 82.70
GBP/JPY – 141.41
GBP/NZD – 1.8115
GBP/RUB – 47.100
GBP/SEK – 9.8590
GBP/ZAR – 13.9775

Sterling

Sterling has continued to perform well against the euro over the past few days reaching fresh highs of 1.1885 during the break whilst staying relatively range bound against the US dollar. This week is data heavy for sterling, with Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data from the Manufacturing sector released today and then Construction and Services data being released over the next couple of days. After terrible figures last month lead to weakness in sterling, traders will watch this month’s results closely. Speculation will return this week ahead of Thursday’s monetary policy committee meeting that the Bank of England may look to increase quantitative easing. Given the uncertainty, a vote for or a vote against a further increase are both likely to cause a knee jerk reaction in the market and therefore rapid movements. Call in now for a live update and to speak to your trader.

Euro

The banks re-opened in Cyprus on Thursday to relative calm mainly due to the strict money controls placed upon bank accounts to stop capital flight in the troubled nation. Cypriot officials are expected to try and renegotiate the terms of their bailout with the Troika this week as concerns emerge in the market that it may well need another one in the future. This week the European Central Bank will be at the forefront of traders’ minds with the monthly interest rate decision on Thursday which is widely anticipated to be kept on hold once more. The press conference that follows may well cause a great deal of volatility as it is likely to be dominated by comments regarding Cyprus. Manufacturing and services PMI data released this week will be watched closely by traders as they try to second guess the relative strength of Eurozone economy as a whole. We also have unemployment figures, retail sales data, final GDP figures which are expected to show the Eurozone economy as a whole contracted by 0.6 % and we also have 10-year bond auctions from both France and Spain. Get in touch this week for the most up to date news and rates.

US Dollar

Thursday saw the US dollar weaken against all major competitors ahead of the Easter weekend due to an easing of concerns across the Eurozone and a shortfall in expected 4th quarter GDP growth. The US economy grew at an annualised 0.4% (exceeding the 0.1% forecast from January), however this weighed in slightly below the +0.5% expected reading, which enforced a degree of selling pressure in the US dollar. On Friday, consumer confidence figures and data showing the percentage increase in personal spending both beat analysts estimates. Yesterday, Manufacturing PMI data came out far below market expectations but still demonstrating industry expansion. For the rest of the week, all eyes will be fixated on the raft of employment related data released which comes to a climax on Friday with the highly influential Non-farm Pay rolls data. Other data released this week includes trade balance data, non-Manufacturing PMI and the Chairman of the Federal Bank is also speaking. Call in now to speak to your trader for the latest market update.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, the Canadian dollar stole much of the headlines on Thursday as GDP data released came our mildly better than expected showing the economy grew by 0.2%. Chinese Manufacturing PMI data released yesterday came out lower than expected, somewhat dampening the hopes of a strong economic recovery in the worlds second largest economy. Early this morning the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept interest rates on hold as it stated that measures taken previously were beginning to benefit the economy; other data released from Austrlaia this week includes trade balance statistics announced today and tomorrow sees retail sales and building permits figures released. The Bank of Japan is holding a press conference, and announcing interest rates on Thursday which traders will watch with a keen interest given last month’s announcement of a new 2% inflation target and the recently appointed new governor of the Bank of Japan. The unemployment figures released on Friday from Canada have consistently been dropping in recent months, if the trend continues, and trade balance figures released at the same time are also positive, expect the Canadian dollar to benefit. Call in now for the latest news and prices for your currency.

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