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Posted April 30th, 2014 by Charles Purdy

Smart Daily Exchange Rates

GBP/EUR – 1.2175
GBP/USD – 1.6810
EUR/GBP – 0.8208
EUR/USD – 1.3806
GBP/AED – 6.1736
GBP/AUD – 1.8105
GBP/CAD – 1.8405
GBP/CHF – 1.4849
GBP/CNY – 10.519
GBP/DKK – 9.0870
GBP/HKD – 13.035
GBP/HUF – 375.05
GBP/INR – 101.48
GBP/JPY – 172.29
GBP/NZD – 1.9633
GBP/RUB – 60.067
GBP/SEK – 11.020
GBP/THB – 54.363
GBP/ZAR – 17.723

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Posted April 30th, 2014 by Charles Purdy

Sterling benefits from “disappointing” German inflation data

Another mixed day for sterling ended with gains against both the euro and US dollar. Similar to the pattern 24 hours previously, there was strong support for sterling as the European markets opened, driving it up against the US dollar back towards the five-year highs recently seen. Weaker-than-expected growth data showed that the British economy had grown by 0.8% over the past quarter, below the 0.9% forecast level. Despite this data missing expectations, continuing growth in the economy, alongside disappointing inflation data from Germany saw sterling recover throughout the day to finish in an improved position against both the US dollar and euro.

Little key data out of the UK today so sterling will be influenced by data releases from elsewhere. From the Eurozone this morning we have inflation data released which will be very closely watched following the disappointing figures from Germany yesterday, the Eurozone’s largest economy. From the US we have the release of important employment data and the latest Federal Reserve meeting which are likely to be influential plus first quarter US growth figures.

Looking to buy or sell sterling? Contact your trader now for live rates, news and currency-purchasing strategies.

Posted April 30th, 2014 by Charles Purdy

Euro weakens over low inflation worries

The euro took a sharp tumble yesterday as a result of worse-than-expected inflation data coming out of Germany. Figures came through detailing an inflation rate of 1.1% in the Eurozone’s largest economy, 0.2% less than median predictions. When the figures came through around lunchtime, we saw the single currency weaken sharply, heading back up towards 1.22 against sterling and down to 1.38 against the US dollar.

The poorer performance of Germany in terms of consumer inflation has raised doubts over whether today’s Eurozone Flash Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will reach earlier predictions of 0.8%. Should the CPI data fail to reach this, it is likely that we will see further euro weakness as investor concerns mount regarding continued low interest rates. European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi may have alleviated some of the imminent fears of asset-buying in a private address yesterday; however, it is likely to take a more public assertion to deter traders from reacting should we see low CPI figures this morning. Whilst uncertainty remains, sharp movement in euro rates remains likely.

Looking to buy or sell euros? Contact your trader now for live rates, news and currency-purchasing strategies.

Posted April 30th, 2014 by Charles Purdy

US dollar movement likely on a busy day for data releases

The US dollar had another mixed day yesterday, with little intrinsic data to sway investors one way or another. Gains were seen against sterling thanks to weak data from the UK, but this ground was largely lost throughout the afternoon. For the US, the biggest release was the Consumer Confidence figure. This came out a little behind expectations, but had a muted impact as investors remained tentative ahead of today’s much more influential events.

Firstly, the ever important labour markets will provide an independent non-farm employment change figure, a good indicator ahead of Friday’s official variant. Following this, we will receive reports of the advance Gross Domestic Product growth figure for the first quarter, which investors will look to for indications of the health and growth of the economy as a whole. Following this broad indicator, the evening brings the latest meeting of the US Federal Reserve. While nothing drastic is expected, continued tapering of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing programme is likely to relieve more pressure on the dollar. Investors will also look for any other hints that may sway the future prospects of the dollar.

Looking to buy or sell US dollars? Contact your trader now for live rates, news and currency-purchasing strategies.

Posted April 30th, 2014 by Charles Purdy

Emerging market currencies benefit from increased risk appetite

The market patterns we saw emerging on Monday continued yesterday, with the sanctions imposed on Russia, specifically by the US, being relatively mild. The news eased concerns of a standoff between Russia and the US, which looked increasingly likely towards the end of last week. As a result, emerging market stocks advanced by the most in a month, which boosted their respective currencies, with the South African rand, Turkish lira, and Indian rupee carrying through the strength they showed on Monday into yesterday. Conversely, the traditionally safe-haven Japanese yen continued to be pegged back from the gains it achieved last week, as the global appetite for risk increased. The news also saw the Russian rouble advance for the second day in a row.

Elsewhere, the Hungarian forint was the big mover following a decision from the central bank to cut interest rates to a record low, causing the currency to lose ground against the majority of its most-traded peers. Although the move was forecasted by a number of economists, the rate cut had not been fully priced into the market, and as a result we saw a negative forint shift following the announcement.
Overnight last night we had business confidence figures from New Zealand and a press conference from the Bank of Japan, and later today we have GDP figures from Canada.

Looking to buy or sell currencies? Contact your trader now for live rates, news and currency-purchasing strategies.

Posted April 29th, 2014 by Charles Purdy

Smart Daily Exchange Rates

GBP/EUR – 1.2136
GBP/USD – 1.6838
EUR/GBP – 0.8236
EUR/USD – 1.3873
GBP/AED – 6.1830
GBP/AUD – 1.8200
GBP/CAD – 1.8557
GBP/CHF – 1.4804
GBP/CNY – 10.534
GBP/DKK – 9.0590
GBP/HKD – 13.055
GBP/HUF – 375.70
GBP/INR – 101.85
GBP/JPY – 172.80
GBP/NZD – 1.9751
GBP/RUB – 60.120
GBP/SEK – 10.996
GBP/THB – 54.342
GBP/ZAR – 17.841

Posted April 29th, 2014 by Charles Purdy

Sterling awaits today’s growth figures

Sterling had a mixed performance yesterday, with early gains against its major currency partners being eroded throughout the day. Sterling started strongly in the early morning, rising to its highest levels against the US dollar since November 2009, while also appreciating against the euro. Recovery from the euro was swift, bringing sterling down to a similar level as markets were when opening. Sterling resisted a dollar recovery throughout the morning, only falling after the release of better-than-expected pending home sales data from the US.

Today sees the release of preliminary growth figures from the UK for the first quarter, which provides a broad measure of economic activity. Expectations are for a small but significant increase over the relevant comparatives with the quarter showing an increase of 0.9% and a 3.2% increase on an annual basis. It is likely to have an impact on sterling if the results deviate from these forecast levels.

Looking to buy or sell sterling? Contact your trader now for live rates, news and currency-purchasing strategies.

Posted April 29th, 2014 by Charles Purdy

Inflation data key to Euro’s short term movement

While there was some sporadic movement in euro rates yesterday, net shifts were relatively limited. As yet, traders seem unsure of where to position themselves ahead of the all-important mid-week inflation data. I even heard on the radio this morning a commentator forecasting that the euro would weaken by 10% over the coming months. Extreme in my view but it may prove to be right!

Today’s German Consumer Price Index data (CPI) may have a more decisive impact on the performance of the single currency given that the data from the Eurozone’s largest economy will give a strong indication as to how tomorrow’s Eurozone CPI figures come out. Inflation data has had an increasingly strong bearing on euro rates of late, given the strong rhetoric from European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi. Draghi has threatened decisive action should we not see a slow increase in inflation towards the ECB’s 2% target over the coming months. Such action, including quantitative easing and negative interest rates, would certainly have a negative impact on the strength of the euro. A reading of significantly less than the forecast 0.8% is likely to cause sharp weakening in euro rates, whilst a reasonable improvement on last month’s 0.5% is likely to give the single currency a substantial boost.

Looking to buy or sell euros? Contact your trader now for live rates, news and currency-purchasing strategies.

Posted April 29th, 2014 by Charles Purdy

US Dollar recovers from early slump

The US dollar started the week with mixed fortunes, as internal and external results drove the markets. Firstly, it plummeted to fresh lows against sterling to reach the lowest point since November 2009. This came mainly thanks to UK optimism, alongside significant mergers and acquisitions talk between US and UK companies. The dollar fought back in the afternoon, as a much better than expected pending home sales figure gave it some strength.

Today there is just one influential release from stateside, which comes in the form of Consumer Confidence data from the Conference Board. Alongside this, investors will be looking forward to tomorrow as the most important day of the week for the dollar this week, with a statement from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and growth results due.

Looking to buy or sell US dollars? Contact your trader now for live rates, news and currency-purchasing strategies.

Posted April 29th, 2014 by Charles Purdy

“Riskier” currencies have a good day

Yesterday we saw a reversal of the patterns seen towards the end of last week. It has been an ongoing theme in the marketplace since the crisis in Ukraine first developed; when news emerges from the region that the situation has worsened, we see a global risk-off, with traders selling high-yielding assets in favour of safer bets. When the situation seems to have improved, we see global confidence increase. The situation looked fairly dire at the end of last week, but tensions appear to have eased slightly over the weekend – as a result we saw the Japanese yen and Swiss francs lose much of the ground that they made up last week. Emerging market currencies, such as the South African rand, Indian rupee and Turkish lira all showed strength throughout the day yesterday.

Interestingly, despite the fact that the US imposed sanctions on seven influential Russian individuals and 17 companies, the rouble still logged gains yesterday as the situation in the Ukraine seemed to be improving. A statement released from the White House claimed Russia ‘had done nothing to meet its Geneva commitments and in fact has further escalated the crisis’. This did not seem to deter traders, however, who looked to capitalise on recent rouble weakness by buying-up the relatively cheap currency.

Overnight last night we had monthly trade balance figures out of New Zealand which grew as we saw an increase in the export of dairy products to China, and later today we have a speech from the governor of the Bank of Canada.

Looking to buy or sell currencies? Contact your trader now for live rates, news and currency-purchasing strategies.

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