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Posted April 28th, 2015 by Charles Purdy

US Dollar continues to weaken

The US dollar continued to weaken on Monday, following a difficult spell last week. Monday saw the US currency break the 1.52 level against sterling, the first time since the start of March. This can be attributed to a weak Flash Services Purchasing Managers’ Index showing a drop in growth, as well as investors leaving the US dollar due to the recent slowdown in the economy. This has caused some investors to forecast that the next interest rate rise will be towards the end of the year rather than June.

We also have the next meeting of the Federal Reserve this week and although no detailed and updated economic forecast will be released, markets will be keen to get its perspective of whether or not the recent weakness is just a blip or a longer term trend.

Today will see the release of consumer confidence in the US, which is expecting to show a slight increase. However, with recent figures falling short of expectations, we could see yet another poor figure for the US dollar.

If you are looking to buy or sell US dollars, we suggest contacting your trader now for live rates, news and currency-purchasing strategies.

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Posted April 27th, 2015 by Charles Purdy

US Dollar under pressure

The US dollar had a difficult week last week and weakened further against sterling and the euro on Friday as core durable goods orders data released showed a contraction in core orders being placed, although the overall figure had grown more than expected.

It will be interesting to see if the US dollar continues to weaken against its peers this week. Growth figures to be released on Wednesday for the first quarter are expected to highlight a tough winter and be close to 1%, much less than the 2.2% for the last quarter of 2014. We also have the latest Federal Reserve meeting the same day. It is a fairly low key meeting as there is no press conference following the meeting or new economic forecasts and the expectation is that there will be no change in policy. The weekly unemployment claims for the US is due Thursday, with expectations for another high figure – which could build a negative view for the Non-farm employment figures due next week. The ISM Manufacturing Purchase Managers’ Index will be hoping for a positive sign, especially with the US fighting against the current slowdown.

If you are looking to buy or sell US dollars, we suggest contacting your trader now for live rates, news and currency-purchasing strategies.

Posted April 21st, 2015 by Charles Purdy

US Dollar also steady

There was little data released from the US on Monday. US Federal Reserve member Dudley advised that the dollar’s recent strong performance against the majority of its peers, makes the US outlook more unknown and points towards the recent slowdown in the economy.

We expect this quiet to continue, with no US data releases until Wednesday. The focus this week will be on the Unemployment Claims on Thursday. This was a tough figure for the US of late and an important lead indicator in the lead up to the Non-farm employment figure due out at the start of May.

If you are looking to buy or sell US dollars, we suggest contacting your trader now for live rates, news and currency-purchasing strategies.

Posted April 17th, 2015 by Charles Purdy

Canadian dollar at 3 month highs

  • The Canadian dollar soared to three-month highs against its local but larger neighbour, the US dollar. This was largely fuelled by disappointing US economic reports that heightened speculation over the timings of a US rate hike by the Federal Reserve. The Canadian dollar capitalized on this as The US dollar reached 1.2232 against its Canadian counterpart, the US dollar’s lowest position since 21st January.
  • Things were also looking up for the Australian dollar on Thursday as a report by the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed that the number of people in employment jumped by 37,000 in March, more than double expectations. It has been a mixed week for the Australian economy, but this overshooting of employment figures certainly gives it a reason for positivity.

Are you looking to buy or sell currencies? Contact your trader now for live rates, news and currency purchasing strategies.

Posted April 16th, 2015 by Charles Purdy

US dollar under pressure as data disappoints

It was a negative day for the US dollar as data releases continued to show poor figures, although the US dollar did have some relief as US Federal Reserve member Bullard said now may be a good time to start an interest rate rise. The Empire State Manufacturing Index, a leading indicator of the conditions in the manufacturing industry, showed that conditions were worsening for the first time since the end of last year. Industrial production also followed with production contracting below expectations as the US continues to see a slowdown in their economy.

The US can hope for some relief today, with some several Federal Reserve members speaking. The focus is on how they feel when an interest rate rise should take place.

Building permits are expected to remain stable, along with weekly unemployment claims. Another indicator for manufacturing is expected to show slight growth for economic conditions, but with such a poor figure yesterday it will be hard to see this come out above expectations.

If you are looking to buy or sell US dollars, we suggest contacting your trader now for live rates, news and currency-purchasing strategies.

Posted April 10th, 2015 by Charles Purdy

Sterling up and down

This week was a mixed one for sterling, with significant movement against both the euro and US dollar. With a UK bank holiday on Monday affecting trade volumes, it was a slow start to the week – and sterling traded narrowly against its major trade partners. Better-than-expected services growth data throughout February was announced on Tuesday, but this failed to boost sterling against the US dollar as investors looked ahead to the release of minutes from the latest meeting of the Federal Reserve’s policy makers. However, an unexpected boost for sterling was seen on Wednesday thanks to the news of the largest energy merger in 10 years. With Shell expected to purchase a large amount of sterling to fund their takeover of BG Group, sterling garnered support.

Despite continuous election uncertainty resurfacing on Thursday, sterling maintained this strong position against the euro towards the end of the week. This could not be repeated against the US dollar however, as sterling fell to the lowest level in three weeks as markets reacted positively to the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting.

Today we see the release of February production figures from both the UK industrial and manufacturing industries – and any unexpected increase in these figures could see sterling benefit against the euro.

If you are looking to buy or sell sterling, we suggest contacting your trader now for live rates, news and currency-purchasing strategies.

Posted April 10th, 2015 by Charles Purdy

US Dollar enjoys a good week

The US dollar suffered at the beginning of this week, as it attempted to recover from the poor Non-Farm Employment data from the previous Friday. A small number of Federal Reserve members did speak out in support of the dollar despite this figure, with some still indicating that June would be the month for the first rate lift off. However, this has driven mixed views from other members of the Federal Reserve, with some even wishing to push back the date until 2016.

This week’s positive releases included the Services and Non-manufacturing Purchase Managers Index (PMI), both showing continued growth in the sectors. Tuesday saw an increase in JOLTS Job openings, which showed that the jobs are there for the employment rate to pick back up next month. The current slowdown in the economy meant that there were mixed views on an interest rate rise in the Federal Reserve minutes released on Wednesday showing. There was slightly negative news when Thursday’s Unemployment claims release which showed a slight increase – but this was not big enough to weaken the US dollar.

Today, we will see import prices for the US – and this is expected to fall alongside current inflation. Federal Reserve member Lacker is speaking, and we expect there will be a continued focus on possible interest rate rises.

If you are looking to buy or sell US dollars, we suggest contacting your trader now for live rates, news and currency-purchasing strategies.

Posted April 9th, 2015 by Charles Purdy

US Dollar steady

Wednesday was a quiet day for data releases as the US dollar recovers from last Friday’s disappointing Non-Farm employment figure. Federal Reserve Member Dudley touched upon this yesterday, advising that the Federal Reserve are not paying a huge amount of attention to the figure and a June interest rate hike is still a valid option. This view was lent support by the Federal Reserve minutes and many are viewing last week’s employment figures as a one off. Crude Oil Inventories were up on the previous month, showing the US continue to produce a huge amount of oil – even with the current low price which has started to fall again given the oversupply.

We expect today to be another quiet day for US data releases, with the weekly Unemployment claims being released and are expected to show an increase on the previous week.

If you are looking to buy or sell US dollars, we suggest contacting your trader now for live rates, news and currency-purchasing strategies.

Posted April 7th, 2015 by Charles Purdy

Polish Zloty Slides

  • The zloty weakened after the central bank governor criticised a regulator’s proposal to allow holders of Swiss franc-denominated mortgages convert their debt into local currency at historical exchange rates, arguing that it would be ‘fatal’ for lenders.
  • Asian currencies are rallying on expectations that the US Federal Reserve may delay the interest rate increase as payroll data from the US shows concerns about the growth of the economy.
  • Australia surprised the markets by holding their interest rate at 2.25%. Given some disappointing economic data there was an expectation that the rate would be cut. Perhaps next time!

Are you looking to buy or sell currencies? Contact your trader now for live rates, news and currency purchasing strategies.

Posted March 27th, 2015 by Charles Purdy

Mixed messages and data make it difficult for the US dollar

This week has seen continued strength from the US dollar. Monday was a positive day for the currency, thanks to as Existing Home Sales data, which improved on the previous month, and Federal Reserve Member Fischer confirmation that a rate lift off is probably justified before the end of 2015 – although he emphasised that this would only be if the Federal Reserve are reasonably confident on inflation figures. Inflation did move in the right direction on Tuesday, showing a positive increase for the first time since September 2014. Manufacturing Purchase Manager’s Index (PMI) showed consecutive growth in the Manufacturing sector, and this was followed by another Federal Reserve Member Williams reiterating that it is appropriate to discuss raising interest rates by mid-year.

This positive start soon began negative on Wednesday, when durable goods orders were negative – showing a slowdown in orders placed by consumers – and Federal Reserve member Evans advised against a 2015 rate hike, instead backing a 2016 rate increase. The US dollar returned to positive ways thanks to positive weekly Unemployment claims, which dropped on the previous month, and Service Purchase Manager’s Index (PMI), which showed continued growth in the Services sector. Another Federal Reserve Member, Lockhart, spoke on Thursday, touching on his belief that the US can begin to move out of loose monetary policy measures and into the normalisation of interest rates, and that the Federal Reserve do not intend to intervene as the US dollar continues to strength and hit US exports.

The spotlight of the week will be on the Final US Gross Domestic Product figures for quarter 4 of 2104; in this, it is expected that the initial release will be revised up , supporting the US Dollar even further. Federal Chair Yellen and Member Fischer will also speak throughout Friday, with a focus on Interest Rates and Inflation.

If you are looking to buy or sell US dollars, we suggest contacting your trader now for live rates, news and currency-purchasing strategies.

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