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Posted February 27th, 2013 by Charles Purdy

The Italian elections continue to worry markets | Smart Daily Currency Note

GBP/EUR – 1.1532
GBP/USD – 1.5114
EUR/GBP – 0.8665
EUR/USD – 1.3082
GBP/AED – 5.5514
GBP/AUD – 1.4786
GBP/CAD – 1.5492
GBP/CHF – 1.4077
GBP/CNY – 9.47
GBP/HKD – 11.7152
GBP/HUF – 341.49
GBP/INR – 81.03
GBP/JPY – 138.50
GBP/NZD – 1.8304
GBP/RUB – 46.16
GBP/SEK – 9.7372
GBP/ZAR – 13.3356

Sterling

Sterling had a mixed day yesterday – starting off on the front foot reaching highs of 1.1650 against the euro and 1.5220 against the US dollar before losing ground later in the day. Sterling struggled after one of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members from the Bank of England (BoE) suggested he was open to more monetary easing and furthermore, that the prospect of negative interest rates had been raised at central bank meetings. Furthermore, realised sales data from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) came out lower than expected. Out today we have the second estimate of the UK’s fourth quarter GDP which is expected to show a contraction of 0.3%, the same as the first estimate. Moreover, more MPC members will be speaking today, and following yesterday’s volatility, the market will pay close attention to what they have to say. Call now for the latest updates on sterling.

Euro

It has been a turbulent few days for the euro, news of the inconclusive Italian election yesterday drove the euro to a seven week low against the dollar – whilst weakening by three cents against sterling. The damage was not as widespread as first feared however, as traders became confident that the European Central Bank (ECB) would intervene to limit the fallout, and the euro strengthened in the afternoon. Today is likely to be just as volatile with two important events. Firstly, we expect an Italian 10 Year Bond auction this morning – a key way for governments to borrow money and high yields mean high borrowing costs for the Italian Government. Secondly, in the afternoon the ECB President is speaking in Germany, we traditionally see a great deal of volatility during his speeches as markets look for hints as to future monetary policy. Get in touch now for the latest news and rates.

US Dollar

The US dollar generally performed well yesterday, strengthening against the majority of its currency partners with Consumer Confidence figures and New Home Sales data (rising in January to the highest since 2008) both coming out much better than expected. Along with this, the Federal Reserve Chairman backed the central bank’s current stimulus program, saying that they will support the asset purchases with “little risk of inflation or asset-price bubbles” causing the dollar to strengthen further. In the testimony he stated that “We do not see the potential costs of the increased risk-taking in some financial markets as outweighing the benefits of promoting a stronger economic recovery.” Although he also warned that the automatic federal budget cuts in line to begin 1st of March will add a “significant” burden to the economy if lawmakers are unable to avert from the reductions. Today we will see Core Durable Goods orders along with the second part of the Chairman of the Federal Bank’s “congressional testimony” on monetary policy.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, the Canadian dollar fell to a eight month low versus the US dollar following better than expected data out of the US and the comments from the Chairman of the Federal Bank. The commodity backed currencies struggled in general yesterday whilst the Japanese yen prospered due to risk aversion driving the markets and traders seeking safer havens for their money. The Russian rouble was one of the worst performers yesterday after GDP data released showed that the economy had contracted by 0.3%. Call in now for a market update and a live quote.

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Posted May 21st, 2010 by Charles Purdy

EURO/GBP – 1.153
US$/GBP – 1.443
CHF/GBP – 1.660
CAN$/GBP – 1.534
AUS$/GBP – 1.741

Sterling recovered from yesterday’s 14 month low against the US dollar as investors unwound ‘short’ positions in the pound as fears over European regulation hit investor confidence. German chancellor Angela Merkel’s banned ‘naked short’ selling of national debt – i.e. selling an asset you don’t have, moving the market down and then buying back at a profit. This feels like a very desperate attempt to preserve the euro, and banning naked short selling is not necessarily the best option – a ban on short selling bank shares in 2008 did not prevent those shares tumbling. The UK has suffered since the election as many feel the aggressive spending cuts promised by the government will hurt growth. There are several pieces of data out today. Public sector net borrowing, business investment and mortgage approvals could all cause significant volatility as sentiment towards the UK suffers. The pound has now fallen 11% against the US dollar in the last year – the worst performer of all the major currencies. Call in now for a live price.

In the Euro zone, following the 750bn bailout agreed the other week, there is a key vote today in the German parliament today to ratify using German funds to help Greece. The bailout is deeply unpopular amongst German voters and it poses a dilemma for the German government. Germany was a key player in the creation of the euro and the collapse of the currency would cause the country to lose face as Europe’s big player. Out today, German GDP for the 1st Quarter was confirmed at 0.2% (no change on the estimate). This had very little effect on sentiment – get in touch now as there is a lot of panic in the markets.

In the USA, with a relatively light day on the economic calendar, the US dollar has been trading on sentiment surrounding the Greek crisis. With the short selling ban now in place, the US dollar has dropped as investors close out speculative positions. Yesterday, manufacturing data showed a slight decline which was a little disappointing given previous industrial production data. With the pound still hovering around the 13 month low, there is still scope for it to fall even further. Get in touch now to avoid missing out.

Exchange rates change every second – call Smart Currency Exchange for a live up-to-the-minute quote on our Freephone number: 0808 163 0102 (+44 (0)207 898 0541 from outside the UK) or fill out our online quote form at: SmartCurrencyExchange.com/quote.aspx

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