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Posted November 26th, 2015 by Charles Purdy

Bank of Japan monetary policy likely to remain unchanged

The Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy meeting minutes were released late on Tuesday, along with the Services Producers’ Price Index. The latter was slightly below expectation and the meeting suggested that monetary policy will remain unchanged, despite Japan’s growth declining 0.8% in the three months from July to September. Yesterday was quiet for Japan with no economic data out, but today we see the release of household spending and Tokyo core inflation data. Both are expected to be slightly better than last month’s figures – any surprises could affect the Japanese yen.

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Posted August 6th, 2015 by Charles Purdy

More lacklustre days for the Japanese yen and Canadian dollar?

  • The Japanese yen faltered further yesterday, weakening 0.7% against sterling which meant the yen was at a rate of over 195, something that hasn’t been achievable since the end of June. The leading indicators index was out early morning but the effect on the yen was negligible.
  • It was more mediocrity for Canadian dollar yesterday as it lost more ground against sterling – however, it made small gains against the US dollar, boosted by encouraging trade balance data which beat expectations. Following this, there was clear strengthening for the currency across the board. This was short-lived, however, and previous levels were resumed within three hours.

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Posted May 26th, 2015 by Charles Purdy

Poor sterling performance is good for the Yen and AUD

The Japanese yen and Australian dollar both rose against the pound on Friday – along with most other currencies, thanks to a poor performance from the British currency.

Looking to this week ahead, we see very little data of importance for both these currencies until mid-week. Japan’s monetary policy meeting minutes are released on Wednesday, and of course they will be part of this week’s G7 meetings from Wednesday.

For the Australian dollar, a big shift in the markets is expected with the release of their private Capital Expenditure Data – they will be hoping for better results than last quarter, when reports fell way below forecasts

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Posted May 5th, 2015 by Charles Purdy

Key flow of Chinese data, how will their Government react?

  • The Japanese yen struggled at the end of last week after a number of pieces of poor data. The overall consensus was that the Japanese economy is struggling to maintain the central bank’s ambitious target of sustaining 2% inflation. The key pieces of data showed that core consumer prices rose 2.2% year on year in March, while the jobless rate tickled down to 3.4%.
  • Chinese data will be continuous this week and should give us a much better understanding of how this key world economy is performing. Any slowdown is expected to be supported by positive action by the Chinese Government which will help them and the rest of the world to keep moving forward.
  • There was more positive news from Australia, where producer prices rose 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, coming out above expectations.

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Posted April 28th, 2015 by Charles Purdy

Eyes on Australian central bank meeting

  • Investors looked ahead to the more exciting end of the week after a fairly dry day of data on Monday. However, the Australian dollar still maintained its month-long highs against the US dollar as the expectation weighs heavily on central bank Governor Glenn Steven’s scheduled speech today.
  • Australian is not the only country with key central bank meetings this week as the Central Banks of both Japan and New Zealand meetings will be in the spotlight. The outcome in Japan will be of particular interest, due to the slowness of the Japanese economy.

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Posted April 14th, 2015 by Charles Purdy

Disappointing Chinese trade sees Australian dollar drop

  • The Australian dollar fell over 1% against the US dollar after what was a very poor Monday for the southern hemisphere heavyweight. Data showed that China’s trade surplus narrowed to $3.08 billion in March from $60.60 billion the previous month. Exports fell by 15% when they had been expected to grow by 9% and imports fell by 12.7%. Experts had predicted the trade surplus to shrink to $45.35 billion last month. Shows by how much experts can get it wrong and this has had a heavy impact on the Australian dollar, as China is Australia’s biggest export partner.
  • It was a more positive start to the week for the Japanese economy as a release showed that core machinery orders jumped 5.3% year-on-year in February – well above the expectations for a 3.7% rise.

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Posted March 10th, 2015 by Charles Purdy

Yen starts the week well

The Japanese yen had a strong start to the week, even though data showing weaker growth than had been previously reported for the fourth quarter – this came in at a 0.4% rise compared to the expected quarter on quarter rise of 0.6%. Also on Monday, Japan’s adjusted current account surplus was announced as ¥1.06 trillion, narrower than the expected ¥1.6 trillion.

The Canadian dollar also started the week well, making slight gains against its US counterpart. However, data showed that housing starts in Canada rose by 156,300 units last month, below expectations, which limited gains for the Canadian currency.

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Posted February 20th, 2015 by Charles Purdy

A busy week for the Japanese yen

  • The Japanese yen had a busy week with a raft of data released. The yen held its position on Monday, despite the release of weaker than expected economic growth last quarter – with the economy only growing by 0.6%. The Japanese yen gained on Wednesday following the central bank’s decision to hold policy steady, with the Asian market gearing up for Chinese New Year. Thursday was another positive day for the Japanese currency as better-than-expected export figures boosted the yen’s current position.
  • The Australian dollar jumped on Tuesday, following on from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)’s latest meeting, where it said that it cut rates due to the deteriorating economic outlook. The RBA shocked markets earlier in the month when it decided to lower its benchmark interest rate to a new record low of 2.25%.
  • The New Zealand dollar had a solid start to the week on Monday, as better than expected retail sales gave the currency a much needed boost. The New Zealand dollar rose to new one-month highs against its US counterpart yesterday following the news that the US Federal Reserve may keep interest rates on hold for longer than had initially been expected.

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Posted February 19th, 2015 by Charles Purdy

Japan is steady as she goes

  • The Japanese yen gained on Wednesday following the central bank’s decision to hold policy steady, with the Asian market gearing up for Chinese New Year. The Bank of Japan board decided by an 8 to 1 vote to leave the bank’s policy unchanged and upgraded its assessment of exports and factory output, while warning that consumption has been hit by a April 2014 sales tax hike.
  • In Canada, official data showed that wholesale sales rose by 2.5% in December, coming out well above the expected 0.4% gain that had been expected by analysts. However this wasn’t enough to see it hold its position as it fell against both the euro and the dollar.

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Posted February 10th, 2015 by Charles Purdy

Yen has a strong start

The Japanese currency had a strong start to the week. The yen gained strength from a data release reflecting improved Japanese consumer sentiment in January. It was further boosted almost half a per cent against the US dollar thanks to a statement by a high profile Bank of Japan policy maker that confirmed the economy will not slip back into deflation.

The Australian dollar, however, dropped down against its US counterpart on Monday. This was due to a data release showing that Australia’s newspaper job advertisements was down 6.7% last month, following on from a 3% increase the month before.

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