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Posted July 12th, 2013 by Charles Purdy

Difficult week for sterling, will it continue next week? | Smart Daily Currency Note

Last week            This week
(GBP/EUR – 1.1757)   GBP/EUR    1.1591
(GBP/USD – 1.5583)   GBP/USD    1.5138
(EUR/GBP – 0.8504)   EUR/GBP    0.8624
(EUR/USD – 1.3253)   EUR/USD    1.3057
(GBP/AED – 5.7234)   GBP/AED    5.5598
(GBP/AUD – 1.6392)   GBP/AUD    1.6523
(GBP/CAD – 1.5995)   GBP/CAD    1.5688
(GBP/CHF – 1.4476)   GBP/CHF    1.4365
(GBP/HKD – 12.0954)  GBP/HKD    11.7427
(GBP/INR – 88.455)   GBP/INR    90.864
(GBP/JPY – 150.99)   GBP/JPY    150.00
(GBP/NZD – 1.9545)   GBP/NZD    1.9266
(GBP/SEK – 10.1634)  GBP/SEK    10.0666
(GBP/ZAR – 15.454)   GBP/ZAR    15.204

Sterling

Sterling was struggling as it began the week still looming in the shadow of new Governor Carney’s comments. Things went from bad to worse though, as poor manufacturing and industrial production figures on Tuesday saw sterling’s value fall by a further cent to 3 year lows – hitting 1.4814 against a strong US dollar. Sterling has then spluttered through the rest of the week against a wide range of currencies with little UK news being released. However it did gain nearly two-and-a-half cent as the US dollar took a dive overnight on Wednesday. Today is similarly quiet for news, instead traders will be looking to a busy week ahead with inflation figures as well as the minutes from the recent Bank of England meeting. Get in touch today for the latest news and up to the second rates for sterling.

Euro

A similarly steady week for the euro as markets became accustomed to the disparity in tone on monetary policy coming from central banks around the world. One of the members of the European Central Bank clarified that not only was there unanimity on the recent rate decision, but also that interest rates would absolutely not be raised for at least 12 months. Overnight on Wednesday euro finally broke through 1.30 mark against the US dollar, and pushed sterling back below the 1.16 level. Today sees very little news released so it’s likely to be the same story again, but call your trader for an update.

US Dollar

A tumultuous week for the US dollar – flying high through the early part of the week as markets speculated over the imminent end to ultra-loose monetary policy stateside. The Federal Reserve had made comments which lead traders to believe that the conditions were right to begin winding up quantitative easing programs. Markets looked to a speech from the Chairman of the Federal Reserve to add certainty to their speculation – Chairman Bernanke went against all expectations as he explained that much more needed to be seen in inflation and employment figures before the tapering of quantitative easing could begin. The shock news caused the US dollar to plummet 2.5 cent, seeming to settle a new levels yesterday. Today sees the release of influential inflation figures, which have taken on extra weight after recent comments so the excitement may well continue today. Get in touch with us today for the very latest.

Worldwide

Elsewhere the commodity backed currencies; the Australian, Canadian and New Zealand dollars enjoyed a strong start to the week, as risk appetite grew. Concern over poor Chinese figures saw early gains slip away midweek however. The Japanese yen has been weathering the storm well, making gradual gains against most major peers. The Danish, Swedish and Norwegian currencies similarly fared well in the first half of the week, but dropped off on the news from the US on ending stimulus programs. Call your trader today for the latest news and live rates on your currency.

If you haven’t opened a Smart account yet, call on 0808 163 0102 (+44 0207 898 0541) or fill out our online Account Form

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Posted July 11th, 2013 by Charles Purdy

US dollar weakens on Central Bank comments | Smart Daily Currency Note

GBP/EUR – 1.1556
GBP/USD – 1.5082
EUR/GBP – 0.8646
EUR/USD – 1.3043
GBP/AED – 5.5393
GBP/AUD – 1.6305
GBP/CAD – 1.5639
GBP/CHF – 1.4338
GBP/CNY – 9.2507
GBP/HKD – 11.6942
GBP/HUF – 338.92
GBP/INR – 90.227
GBP/JPY – 149.5
GBP/NZD – 1.9026
GBP/RUB – 49.2366
GBP/SEK – 10.0281
GBP/THB – 46.846
GBP/ZAR – 14.9626

Sterling

A fairly steady day for sterling yesterday as markets caught their breath after an eventful first half of the week. Sterling gradually won back a cent from overnight lows against the US dollar, as markets nervously took position ahead of the release of the release of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes last night. Following the release, we saw sterling appreciate by two and a half cent against a particular weak US dollar. This morning sees one of Mark Carney’s colleagues at the Bank of England speak; to which markets will look to clarify last week’s comments on interest rates. Call your trader today for the latest news and up to the second rates on sterling.

Euro

Steady as she goes for the euro yesterday, trading in a very tight range against sterling for the whole day – notably holding above 1.16. The European Central Bank today gives its monthly bulletin which is likely to reiterate recent comments saying that interest rates will remain at current levels or below for at least the next 12 months. Markets seem to have become accustomed to such comments, so we’re unlikely to see a dramatic move unless something considerably different is said. Get in touch with Smart today for live rates for the euro.

US Dollar

The US dollar slipped a little through London trading yesterday as traders positioned themselves ahead of last night’s FOMC meeting minutes, and the speech from Committee Chairman Bernanke. The US dollar weakened significantly following the comments from the Committee Chairman where he somewhat contradicted his previous statements on monetary policy and suggested that policy should remain accommodative due to low inflation and the fact that the labour market remains weak (in spite of last Fridays positive figures). The minutes from the FOMC meeting had less effect on the markets as the members of the FOMC appear to be split regarding when the potential tapering should begin. Today the excitement may well continue with the release of unemployment figures this afternoon. Call your trader for the very latest.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, no real change for the Japanese yen ahead of an anticipated statement on monetary policy this morning following on from last night’s news from the US. Concern over decreasing trade with China saw the Australian dollar end its two-day winning streak ahead of employment figures released overnight. Its antipodean counterpart, the New Zealand dollar, similarly slipped in spite of recent comments from the Finance Minister that interest rates were certain to rise. Get in touch with us today for the latest news and live rates for your currency.

If you haven’t opened a Smart account yet, call on 0808 163 0102 (+44 0207 898 0541) or fill out our online Account Form

Posted July 9th, 2013 by Charles Purdy

Is sterling set for further weakness? | Smart Daily Currency Note

GBP/EUR – 1.1622
GBP/USD – 1.497
EUR/GBP – 0.8603
EUR/USD – 1.2881
GBP/AED – 5.4988
GBP/AUD – 1.6286
GBP/CAD – 1.5761
GBP/CHF – 1.4456
GBP/CNY – 9.1742
GBP/HKD – 11.6127
GBP/HUF – 341.74
GBP/INR – 89.977
GBP/JPY – 151.31
GBP/NZD – 1.9018
GBP/RUB – 49.4437
GBP/SEK – 10.137
GBP/THB – 46.8
GBP/ZAR – 15.122

Sterling

After being pushed against the ropes overnight on Sunday – dropping to the lowest it has been since early March – sterling gained a little ground back against the dollar yesterday, pushing back above 1.49 again. The International Monetary Fund releases its World Economic Outlook today, with analysts saying it is likely that the UK will undo its recent downgrade and be forecast 1% growth in the next year. Key to that success will be the manufacturing sector, from which production figures are released this morning, with the expectation being that we will see growth return after a disappointing month. As long as the underlying data shows that recovery in the UK is gathering pace we can expect the pound to at least hold its own – if it goes the other way there is certainly room for even further weakness. Call in today for more news and up to the second rates for sterling.

Euro

Yesterday, the President of the European Central Bank President reiterated last week’s comments that interest rates would be kept at least as low as they are for the foreseeable as the economic climate does not warrant a rise. Markets appeared to have become accustomed to the disparity between the noises coming from Britain and Europe, and those coming from the States, as there was no reaction to his words, instead we saw euro recover slightly. Talks get underway today between finance ministers where the focus will again be the next tranche of aid for Greece – while progress has been made in Portugal by proposing a Deputy Prime Minister, both regions still represent a threat to both Europe and the euro. Call now for an update on rates and news.

US Dollar

After soaring to 4-month highs overnight, the US dollar had a fairly lacklustre day’s trading; losing ground to most major peers as speculation grew that it had gained too much. Between now and Wednesday’s release of minutes from this month’s Federal Reserve meeting exchange rates are likely to be driven by risk sentiment. Yesterday saw positivity growing – good news for the more risky currencies, bad news for the US dollar – so there is potential for some weakening for the US dollar. Nonetheless, with the labour market appearing to grow, and Wednesday’s announcement expected to further clarify plans to end the current ultra-loose monetary policy the outlook is largely positive for the US dollar. Get in touch today for the latest rates and news.

Worldwide

Yesterday, as today will be, was driven by risk and profit taking. As risk appetite grew, the Norwegian krone climbed by the most in 10 months – backed up by the feeling that its recent slide to almost three-year lows had been excessive. Similarly the Australian dollar, trading dangerously close to a three-year low against the US dollar, found a momentary lifeline thanks to a strong European stock market. The same could not be said for the Swedish krone, however, as manufacturing data came out worse than expected. The Canadian dollar rose from the lowest levels seen in almost two years as home construction data showed better-than-forecast figures. Overnight we saw the release of business confidence data from Australia and New Zealand, as well as inflation data from China. The rest of the day is a relatively quiet day on the data-front; with the only significant release being the Swiss monthly retail figures released first thing, risk will continue to be the key driver. Call your trader now for the latest on your currency pair.

If you haven’t opened a Smart account yet, call on 0808 163 0102 (+44 0207 898 0541) or fill out our online Account Form

Posted July 8th, 2013 by Charles Purdy

Sterling suffering badly as temperatures soar | Smart Daily Currency Note

GBP/EUR – 1.1599
GBP/USD – 1.489
EUR/GBP – 0.8617
EUR/USD – 1.2835
GBP/AED – 5.4698
GBP/AUD – 1.6434
GBP/CAD – 1.5734
GBP/CHF – 1.4355
GBP/CNY – 9.1409
GBP/HKD – 11.55
GBP/HUF – 342.87
GBP/INR – 90.809
GBP/JPY – 150.58
GBP/NZD – 1.9259
GBP/RUB – 49.5671
GBP/SEK – 10.1937
GBP/THB – 46.836
GBP/ZAR – 15.277

Sterling

A very tough end to the week for sterling, struggling as the US dollar stole the limelight. An ailing sterling dropped below 1.49 and 1.16 against the US dollar and euro respectively on Friday and after a fantastic weekend for British sport, we will have to see how the British currency fairs through the course of this week. The next five days is devoid of data from the UK save for manufacturing production figures released on Tuesday. Given the strength of the manufacturing figures released last week, we anticipate good news. Whether that will be enough to give sterling a helping hand to find some strength again remains to be seen. Get in touch for the latest news and up to the second rates for sterling.

Euro

The euro had a mixed end to last week; comments made by the European Central Bank President on Thursday after the interest rate decision lead to the euro hitting five week lows against the US dollar, but against an even weaker sterling the euro managed gains of 0.3% on Friday. Today, the President of the ECB speaks again, markets will be volatile as traders look for further evidence of forward guidance and openly interventionist policy. Today we also see the release of German trade balance figures, and on Wednesday we have industrial production data coming out of France and Italy. Call today for the latest news, and live rates for euro.

US Dollar

The US dollar soared on Friday, gaining a cent as employment data beat expectations. Markets saw this as a sign that the times are indeed ripe for tapering down loose monetary policy, and drove dollar to below 1.49 against sterling. This week the excitement continues – while the first half of the week is quiet for data, expect volatility to remain as traders place their bets ahead of the release of the minutes from this month’s FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Committee Chairman Bernanke speaks as well, and markets will hope that together they clear up speculation over the end of quantitative easing. More employment figures are released on Thursday, and inflation numbers on Friday so the question is; can the US dollar hold on – will it stay below 1.50? Call your trader now to find out.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar weakened on Friday after both performing reasonably well earlier in the week. Looking ahead to this week, business confidence data coming from New Zealand on the Monday is likely to affect its currency’s performance whilst the Australian Dollar will rise or fall on the back of Wednesday’s consumer sentiment data and Friday’s employment data. The Indian Rupee also fared poorly at the end of last week as did Chinese Renminbi. This was due to a number of factors including continuing US dollar strength and signs that growth in the Chinese economy is slowing down. Some commentators have suggested that we can expect further weakness in the Asian currencies as soon as the imminently-expected scaling back of US bond-buying occurs. Call in now to stay on top of the markets and for live rates from your trader.

If you haven’t opened a Smart account yet, call on 0808 163 0102 (+44 0207 898 0541) or fill out our online Account Form

Posted July 5th, 2013 by Charles Purdy

New BoE Governor speaks, sterling plummets | Smart Daily Currency Note

(Last week)    This week
(GBP/EUR – 1.1687)     GBP/EUR – 1.1668
(GBP/USD – 1.5253)     GBP/USD – 1.5043
(EUR/GBP – 0.8552)     EUR/GBP – 0.8568
(EUR/USD – 1.3047)     EUR/USD – 1.2891
(GBP/AED – 5.6022)     GBP/AED – 5.5253
(GBP/AUD – 1.6473)     GBP/AUD – 1.6453
(GBP/CAD – 1.5967)     GBP/CAD – 1.5832
(GBP/CHF – 1.4432)     GBP/CHF – 1.4412
(GBP/HKD – 11.8291)     GBP/HKD – 11.6624
(GBP/INR – 91.079)     GBP/INR – 90.696
(GBP/JPY – 150.94)     GBP/JPY – 150.81
(GBP/NZD – 1.9534)     GBP/NZD – 1.9241
(GBP/SEK – 10.242)     GBP/SEK – 10.0543
(GBP/ZAR – 15.156)     GBP/ZAR – 15.098

Sterling

Yesterday’s expression of the day was forward guidance – indication from an interventionist central bank as to what they are going to do with interest rates into the future. In his first act at Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney issued a surprise statement yesterday which expressed the Bank’s concern over rising gilt yields, and said that any rise in interest rates which might erstwhile have been implied was not warranted. Markets read this as the MPC giving forward guidance that interest rates would remain at record lows for the foreseeable future, and sterling plummeted across the board, breaking below 1.16 and 1.51 against the euro and US dollar respectively. While we saw a little recovery against a similarly weak euro, sterling stayed at 5-week lows against the US dollar. Away from our new Governor, PMI figures released earlier in the week made it clear that the recovery is well underway showing growth across the board including particular strong figures from the services sector which saw sterling strengthen mid-week. Today is much quieter on the news front, and sterling will trade in the wake of yesterday’s announcement. With traders heading back to their desks in the US, we could well see more excitement, call Smart today to find out how things are looking.

Euro

After struggling through the week, with unemployment reaching new all-time highs and PMI figures disappointing, the euro took a further spill yesterday following the ECB meeting. Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank, joined the ranks of the interventionists when he said that, “ECB interest rates will remain at present or lower levels….for as long as necessary.” The unprecedented move to assure markets of future plans pulled the rug from beneath the euro, which dropped a cent against the US dollar on the news. The Portuguese question continues to hang around, as politicians battle to hold a straining coalition together. Call your trader today for the latest news and up to the second rates.

US Dollar

An up and down week for the US dollar; as traders continue to speculate if conditions are right to justify a reduction in asset purchasing facilities. The US dollar even weakened in spite of solid labour data which showed that the private sector put an extra 188’000 workers in employment, whilst the number of new people claiming for unemployment related benefits fell. The US dollar held its own on independence day, gaining against its major peers whilst sterling and the euro fell through the floor. Today, traders will be back at their desks, as a result, the markets will be far more liquid. Moreover, today see’s the release of the highly influential Non-Farm payroll data which will be closely watched given the labour data released earlier in the week and the Federal Banks comments that suggest that quantitative easing will only be tapered when the labour market has recovered to a greater extent. Get in touch now for live rates and news for the US dollar.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, the big story this week has been the Australian dollar which has seen both ends of a 4 cent range in two days. Assertions from the Reserve Bank of Australia that the Australian dollar would probably depreciate further if the economy needed it led the currency to 34 month lows on Wednesday, only to gain nearly 4 cent against sterling through trading yesterday as investors considered the likelihood of a further interest rate cut. The Japanese yen has also been struggling this week, seeing brief moments of strength as markets get nervous and look to de-risk. Today sees employment figures for Canada release with no major change forecast, and with the Canadian dollar having seen no move either way in the last week it seems unlikely that the trend will change today. Call your trader for up to the second rates, and the latest news, for your currency pair.

If you haven’t opened a Smart account yet, call on 0808 163 0102 (+44 0207 898 0541) or fill out our online Account Form

Posted July 4th, 2013 by Charles Purdy

Good services data boosts sterling | Smart Daily Currency Note

GBP/EUR    1.1731
GBP/USD    1.5239
EUR/GBP    0.8521
EUR/USD    1.299
GBP/AED    5.5986
GBP/AUD    1.6759
GBP/CAD    1.6036
GBP/CHF    1.4461
GBP/CNY    9.3405
GBP/HKD    11.8187
GBP/HUF    344.98
GBP/INR    91.529
GBP/JPY    151.84
GBP/NZD    1.9584
GBP/RUB    50.55
GBP/SEK    10.1987
GBP/THB    47.364
GBP/ZAR    15.323

Sterling

The strongest day in many weeks for sterling, as Services PMI figures blew forecasts out of the water to post a sixth consecutive month of better-than-expected growth. The sector, which makes up 75% of UK GDP, is performing better than any other area and sterling climbed over a cent in the two hours around the release. Today is Mark Carney’s first day in the public eye with the rate decision, and asset purchasing facility announced. We’re unlikely to see any dramatic changes today – especially in light of the positive data emanating from the UK this week, what will be perhaps more insightful is the minutes from the meeting which are released in a fortnight. Nonetheless, markets will be nervous, and with trading volumes low nervousness is exaggerated into volatility so call your trader to find out where sterling is trading right now.

Euro

A dramatic day for the euro as two Portuguese ministers resigned from government, prompting concerns over stability in the region and over the depth of Europe’s sovereign debt crisis. While the euro gained against a weak US dollar, nearly 1% was lost to both sterling and the Japanese yen. The political backdrop will continue to dominate affairs tomorrow, as well as the ECB’s rate decision and subsequent press conference this afternoon. Any change is unlikely, but traders will listen closely for any hints as to future monetary policy. With the holiday stateside, expect volatility to be far greater than normal around the conference. Call your trader today for the very latest news, and up to the second rates for the euro.

US Dollar

The US dollar had a torrid day yesterday in spite of solid labour data which showed that the private sector put an extra 188’000 workers in employment, whilst the number of new people claiming for unemployment related benefits fell. Despite this, speculation grew as to whether progress in the labour market is sufficient to justify a reduction in asset purchasing facilities. The trade deficit, the difference between imports and exports, increased dramatically last month to show that imports into the US are near all-time highs. Today the US celebrates Independence Day and banks will be closed. With traders away from their desks, markets will be much less liquid than usual, and therefore much more volatile. Call in for to-the-second live rates.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, the Japanese yen enjoyed a strong day, benefitting from a risk averse market to push back below 100 against the US dollar. As Australia posted a higher than expected trade surplus, the Australian dollar briefly saw strength, only to promptly fall as the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor said that the currency would probably depreciate further if the economy needs it. The South African rand continued to struggle yesterday – falling for a third consecutive day as Chinese services data disappointed. The Polish zloty strengthened following comments for the central bank suggesting that after the rate cut in July, the easing cycle would be brought to an end. The Governor of the Bank of Japan has been speaking overnight and we also saw the release of building approvals figures from Australia; however, little else is scheduled to be released today. Get in touch today for the latest news, and live rates for your currency.

If you haven’t opened a Smart account yet, call on 0808 163 0102 (+44 0207 898 0541) or fill out our online Account Form

Posted July 3rd, 2013 by Charles Purdy

Sterling continues to lose ground against the dollar | Smart Daily Currency Note

GBP/EUR – 1.1668
GBP/USD – 1.5142
EUR/GBP – 0.8568
EUR/USD – 1.2976
GBP/AED – 5.5621
GBP/AUD – 1.6708
GBP/CAD – 1.5974
GBP/CHF – 1.4379
GBP/CNY – 9.2855
GBP/HKD – 11.7419
GBP/HUF – 343.54
GBP/INR – 91.1
GBP/JPY – 152.52
GBP/NZD – 1.9619
GBP/RUB – 50.2576
GBP/SEK – 10.2097
GBP/THB – 47.04
GBP/ZAR – 15.228

Sterling

A strong construction sector did not make for a strong sterling yesterday. While Construction Purchase Manager Index (PMI) figures were the best they have been since May 2012, sterling still lost ground against the US dollar – pushing as low as 1.5150 against a bright US dollar in the early afternoon. Today the big news is the last of the PMI figures – Services which make up 75% of the UK’s GDP and has shown consistent growth, month on month, since February. The consensus expect slightly less growth than last month, but positive news nonetheless. If the release beats expectations – given the importance for the UK’s economy as a whole – expect sterling to strengthen. That being said, you can expect the market as a whole to remain nervous in anticipation of the Bank of England monetary policy meeting on Thursday where we will see Mark Carneys’ first rate decision as Governor. Not only that, but on the same day we will have the ECB’s decision on interest rates and decreased liquidity due to the US markets being shut in accordance to the 4th July Bank Holiday. Call your trader this morning for the very latest developments.

Euro

The euro was soft yesterday in a day that saw unemployment figures revised up to new all-time highs of 12.2%. While it held its own against a weak sterling during the course of the day only losing ground after close of business here, a dominant US dollar pushed it below 1.30, remaining below this key psychological level as we enter today. Services PMI figures are released in Europe today, with Spain and Italy releasing theirs just ahead of the general release for the Eurozone. In contrast to the UK, the outlook is not great – with the expectation being another month of contraction. Get in touch with your trader today for up to the second rates.

US Dollar

The US dollar enjoyed a strong day yesterday as factory orders exceeded expectations to post a second consecutive month of growth in manufacturing. With a bank holiday tomorrow for Independence day, expect volatility to be on the up over the next few days. Eyes will be on unemployment figures released today and Friday with the consensus expectations being cautiously optimistic. The labour market has long been linked with monetary policy in the US and with chatter about the end of monetary easing programs dominating affairs, good news would definitely boost the dollar. Call in now for the latest news and live rates for the US dollar.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, the Japanese yen failed to snap a 5 day trend as the US dollar pushed up through the key 100 mark once again. Strong figures from Japan appear to be having the opposite effect to anywhere else in the world, as markets are treating good news as a sign that ultra-loose monetary policy is working and will not be brought to an end soon.  The Canadian dollar slipped to a 20 month low after growth dropped last month, trade balance figures released this afternoon will drive volatility. Overnight we saw Australian retail figures and trade balance data released, but little else is expected to be released throughout the day bar the aforementioned  trade balance figures from Canada. Call your trader now for up to the second rates for your currency pair.

If you haven’t opened a Smart account yet, call on 0808 163 0102 (+44 0207 898 0541) or fill out our online Account Form

Posted July 2nd, 2013 by Charles Purdy

Sterling has a difficult start to the week | Smart Daily Currency Note

GBP/EUR – 1.1649
GBP/USD – 1.5232
EUR/GBP – 0.8583
EUR/USD – 1.3074
GBP/AED – 5.5948
GBP/AUD – 1.658
GBP/CAD – 1.6004
GBP/CHF – 1.439
GBP/CNY – 9.3384
GBP/HKD – 11.812
GBP/HUF – 341.88
GBP/INR – 90.371
GBP/JPY – 152.03
GBP/NZD – 1.9509
GBP/RUB – 50.1666
GBP/SEK – 10.1413
GBP/THB – 47.013
GBP/ZAR – 15.057

Sterling

A good morning for sterling yesterday as ‘economic rock star’ Mark Carney took the reins at the Bank of England and Purchase Manager Index (PMI) figures exceeded expectations, showing growth in UK manufacturing for the second consecutive month. Market reaction to the release was fairly muted and sterling weakened through the afternoon to finish close to 1.1650 against the euro. Today sees further PMI data, this time from the Construction sector. After finally breaking into the positive last month, good news would certainly lend support to a struggling pound, but whether it will be enough to sterling remains to be seen. At the very least, expect volatility in the run up to these releases. Call your trader now to see how sterling is doing today.

Euro

The euro performed relatively well yesterday, gaining half a cent against the US dollar on the back of improved manufacturing PMI figures – in particular from struggling Spain and Italy. While they failed to break the near two year trend and still showed a contraction, the release was the best in 16 months and markets viewed it as perhaps the first small step towards recovery. Eurozone unemployment however was up on last month reaching record highs of 12.1% and it means today’s data showing the change in Spanish unemployment will be watched with greater interest than normal.  With little data released today, markets will look ahead to Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting as the key for this week. Get in touch with your trader now for the very latest on the euro.

US Dollar

Following a strong performance last week, the US dollar showed some weakness yesterday falling against most of its major currency pairs including sterling and the euro. This was on the back of lower than expected construction spending and manufacturing PMI figures. Moreover, the employment section of the manufacturing PMI was shown to be contacting for the first time since 2009 (perhaps a precursor to poor non-farm employment change this Friday). This negativity indicates that perhaps the Federal Bank is further away from tightening monetary policy than the central bank had initially indicated. That being said, this weakness could only be short lived if we see further signs that the economy is on a sustainable path to recovery, or indeed if we hear more comments made about tapering the quantitative easing program from members of the Federal Open Market Committee. Call your trader now for live rates and news for the US dollar.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, the Japanese yen had a difficult day yesterday, falling against all major peers. The drop in value came in spite of a quarterly survey showing confidence in the manufacturing sector has improved for the first time in two years. The Japanese yen weakness would indicate a small risk rally as the commodity backed currencies all performed well at the same time. The Australian dollar was one of the stand out performers yesterday, recovering from a 34-month lows against the US dollar through Sunday night. The lows seen on Sunday night were a knock-on effect of worse-than-expected manufacturing data out of China, which did not do any favours for the already-struggling Aussie dollar. The New Zealand dollar also recovered well from the decline seen towards the end of last week. Overnight we saw the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) keep interest rates on hold which had the perverse effect of weakening the Australian dollar against sterling. Get in touch to find out if the Aussie dollar fairs throughout the rest of today, as well as all other live rates.

If you haven’t opened a Smart account yet, call on 0808 163 0102 (+44 0207 898 0541) or fill out our online Account Form

Posted July 1st, 2013 by Charles Purdy

Difficult week for sterling as Carney starts at the BoE | Smart Daily Currency Note

GBP/EUR – 1.1663
GBP/USD – 1.5208
EUR/GBP – 0.8572
EUR/USD – 1.3038
GBP/AED – 5.5854
GBP/AUD – 1.6569
GBP/CAD – 1.5992
GBP/CHF – 1.4371
GBP/CNY – 9.324
GBP/HKD – 11.794
GBP/HUF – 343.08
GBP/INR – 89.856
GBP/JPY – 151.51
GBP/NZD – 1.9606i
GBP/RUB – 49.9232
GBP/SEK – 10.1391
GBP/THB – 47.052
GBP/ZAR – 15.008

Sterling

Sterling had a difficult week last week and continued to lose ground on Friday in spite of any significant data being released. This week we have a whole raft of UK data released, a Bank of England meeting and the arrival of the Mark Carney, quoted on the radio this morning as a financial “rock star”, as the head of the Bank of England. Today we will see the release of Purchase Manager Index (PMI) figures from the manufacturing sector, tomorrow construction, and on Wednesday services figures. Forecast expectations are all positive, but we wait to see whether it’s enough to reverse the trend of sterling’s weakness. On Thursday we will see Mark Carney in action as Governor of the Bank of England for the first time, though no change is expected when he announces interest rates and asset purchasing facilities for the month. Of more interest to most traders will be the minutes from the first meeting under Carney, released 2 weeks later. July is starting with a bang so please call in today for the latest on sterling.

Euro

The euro held fairly steady at the end of last week, dropping off against the US dollar late in the day on Friday but mainly as a result of dollar strength rather than particular euro weakness. This week promises to be an interesting one, with manufacturing data coming out of Spain and Italy on Monday and Wednesday. Then on Thursday we have the European Central Bank meeting. Markets will be sensitive throughout, vulnerable to any surprise news or suggestion that the ECB could drop interest rates further over the coming months or undertake a programme of quantitative easing. Uncertainty is the name of the game at the moment so expect volatility to rise in anticipation of Thursday’s meeting. Get in touch for the latest rates.

US Dollar

The US dollar was the high flyer last week, gaining 0.8% against the euro as markets reacted to talk of tapering out monetary stimulus programs. The chatter is bound to continue into this week, with employment data released on Wednesday likely to deepen speculation as the labour market has long been linked with monetary policy stateside. Also released on Wednesday is non-manufacturing PMI figures, ahead of the key Non-Farm Payroll data on Friday. A lively week ahead, so call your trader to find out where we stand right now.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, the Japanese yen struggled on Friday as data released showed an improving economy, providing proof, albeit limited at this stage, that the ultra-loose monetary policy was having the desired affect, whilst the Australian dollar struggled following comments form a major bank regarding the state of the Chinese economy. .Last night we had the Chinese PMI figures kicking off the week that sees an interest rate decision from Australia late tonight ahead of retail figures which are expected to show fractional growth. The governor of the Bank of Japan speaks on Thursday, and we can expect volatility as he sets out his plans. A busy week also for the Canadian dollar with CPI figures as well as employment releases at the end of the week. Call Smart today for the very latest news and insight into your currency.

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Posted June 28th, 2013 by Charles Purdy

Sterling continues to fall | Smart Daily Currency Note

(Last week)     This week
(GBP/EUR – 1.1719)     GBP/EUR – 1.1687
(GBP/USD – 1.5511)     GBP/USD – 1.5253
(EUR/GBP – 0.853)     EUR/GBP – 0.8552
(EUR/USD – 1.3234)     EUR/USD – 1.3047
(GBP/AED – 5.6965)     GBP/AED – 5.6022
(GBP/AUD – 1.6778)     GBP/AUD – 1.6473
(GBP/CAD – 1.6083)     GBP/CAD – 1.5967
(GBP/CHF – 1.4375)     GBP/CHF – 1.4432
(GBP/HKD – 12.0283)     GBP/HKD – 11.8291
(GBP/INR – 91.788)     GBP/INR – 91.079
(GBP/JPY – 151.60)     GBP/JPY – 150.94
(GBP/NZD – 1.9906)     GBP/NZD – 1.9534
(GBP/SEK – 10.1741)     GBP/SEK – 10.242
(GBP/ZAR – 15.810)     GBP/ZAR – 15.156

Sterling

On the whole a disappointing week for sterling – strong retail sales figures early in the week were encouraging signs for the British economy, giving sterling a short boost, but it has slipped away since. Key to driving this decline was two further members of the monetary policy committee calling for a looser monetary policy to stimulate growth in the country. Yesterday, the Office for national statistics revised their figures from last year to say that growth was substantially lower than previously thought, but, Britain did not see the two consecutive quarters of negative growth which would indicate a double dip recession. The focus for the next few days is undoubtedly going to be Mark Carney’s entrance as new Governor of the Bank of England. While he has made it clear that there is no panacea for British economic woes, great expectations rest on his shoulders. Call your trader today for the latest news and rates for the UK and sterling.

Euro

The euro struggled this week, following comments from the President of the European Central Bank President who said that the economic outlook still warrants an accommodative monetary policy stance. Notably, the euro bought less than 1.30 US dollars for the first time in a month on Wednesday. The European economic summit kicked off yesterday, with ministers from across the Eurozone attempting to come to a conclusion on a banking union. Positive unemployment figures from Germany lent some support to a struggling euro yesterday putting a halt to the downward trend, but the overall picture is still not strong for the 17-member state currency. Get in touch today for the latest on the euro.

US Dollar

The US dollar has enjoyed a very strong week – reaching 1.30 against the euro and 1.52 against sterling at its peak. The Chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee kick started the trend with the announcement last Friday that stimulus programs will be tapered out. Positive data from the States helped the US dollar to strengthen further still, indicating a healthy recovering economy. This trend of dollar strength continued in spite of GDP figures being revised down from initial expectations showing growth was only at 1.8%, a long way shy of the 2.4% that had initially been anticipated. Speak to your trader for up to the second rates, and the latest market news.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, as Kevin Rudd returned for a second stint as Prime Minister of Australia following a party leadership ballot, the Australian dollar enjoyed the most positive week it has in some time. The Norwegian krone fell almost 2 percent against sterling as markets continued to react to last week’s surprise cut in interest rates, with its Swedish counterpart being hit hard too though seeing some recovery through the week. The Indian rupee continued to free-fall, moving to new all-time lows. GDP data released from Canada this afternoon is expected to show the economy only grew by 0.1%; any variation away from this could spark a big reaction in the market. Call your trader for rates and news for your currency.

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