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Posted May 16th, 2014 by Charles Purdy

Eurozone data gives mixed messages

This week we saw plenty of important data from Europe. Yesterday we had consumer price index (CPI) data from the Eurozone, an indicator of inflation levels – this was reported at 1%, as forecasted. A combination of good US data and poor news for the euro brought the latter to 11-week lows; however, this was only for a limited period of time as data from the US revealed that tough times lay ahead. This brought the euro back to the previous levels. Official data also showed that French growth, which was forecasted at 0.2%, came out at 0% whereas the Eurozone’s largest economy, Germany, reported growth of 0.8%, in the three months leading up to March – higher than the 0.7% forecast.

There is very little data out of the Eurozone today. Any movements seen are likely to be a result of events elsewhere.

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Posted May 15th, 2014 by Charles Purdy

A busy day for Eurozone data – expect the euro to move

The euro had a mixed day yesterday as rate movements were largely dictated by ongoing speculation regarding European Central Bank (ECB) action at its next meeting in early June, alongside events elsewhere. The single currency fluctuated within a relatively narrow range against the US dollar, whilst it strengthened against sterling. Sterling reversed an upward trend yesterday following comments about the Bank of England Inflation Report by Governor Mark Carney.

Today is a busier day for Eurozone data releases. There are a number of figures due out that have the potential to affect the performance of the eighteen-nation currency. Eurozone Flash growth data is due out at 10am today, as is German Preliminary growth data, which is liable to have a more powerful effect on rates when it comes out at 7am.

Posted May 14th, 2014 by Charles Purdy

Eurozone data disappoints and expectations rise of ECB action

German Economic Sentiment data came out well below what was expected yesterday and caused the euro to weaken against the majority of other currencies. The data, which is compiled from a survey of German analysts and institutional investors, weighed in favour of the view that the European Central Bank (ECB) will act to further reduce interest rates or inject further liquidity into the Eurozone when it meets next month. The figures showed the most pessimistic outlook from the Eurozone’s largest economy since January of last year. As a result, losses were seen against sterling, the US dollar and the majority of other major currencies.

Posted May 13th, 2014 by Charles Purdy

Will worries over Ukraine reduce German business confidence?

The euro had an unspectacular day yesterday and euro rates remained relatively static in a day of little data. The most notable rate movement was seen against sterling as the single currency weakened further, causing the rate to climb slightly higher, reaching at one stage the highest it has been since January 2013.

Today sees the release of German ZEW Economic Sentiment data at 10am, which is liable to create more movement in euro rates than we saw yesterday. These figures reflect the result of a monthly survey of German analysts and investors focused on the short-term economic outlook of the Eurozone’s largest economy, and are viewed as a leading indicator of the economic health of the nation as they can give an insight into future activity.

Posted May 12th, 2014 by Charles Purdy

Euro under pressure as worries over Eurozone economy persist

The single currency continued its slide towards the end of last week as it dropped back below the 1.38 threshold against the US dollar, reaching a one-month low, while also weakening slightly against sterling. The ongoing weakness was largely representative of the continued reaction to European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi’s address last Thursday. A number of major institutions have predicted that the ECB will further cut interest rates to negative levels when it next meets on 5th June, causing the eighteen-nation currency to lose ground across the board.

Data releases are slightly thinner on the ground this week, although considerable movement in rates is not unlikely given the magnitude of Draghi’s statement last week.

Posted May 9th, 2014 by Charles Purdy

Euro falls as ECB starts to act

The euro experienced a mixed start to the week after the bank holiday as some generally positive data releases from the Eurozone failed to have any real impact upon the performance of the single currency. This saw the euro generally weaker against sterling whilst strengthening against the US dollar for the earlier part of the week as investors looked to position themselves ahead of Thursday’s interest rate decision and following press conference. This event was to be the most influential of the week, and we saw the single currency strengthen very briefly just ahead of the conference at 1.30pm, but then weaken to a greater extent against both sterling and the US dollar as a result of the sentiments expressed by European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi.

Posted May 8th, 2014 by Charles Purdy

Nervous day for the euro as ECB meets

The euro experienced some sporadic rate movements yesterday as markets seemed a little twitchy ahead of today’s European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate decision and subsequent press conference. Rate movements were seen against sterling and the US dollar, although overall movements – which were largely negative – were relatively limited. Weakening in the single currency yesterday was partially attributed to the poor Factory Orders and Industrial Production figures from France and Germany. Production in both economies was down on the previous month, at odds with major forecasts, which had predicted a slight increase in both economies.

Today is expected to be the most volatile day of the week for single currency as we await the aforementioned ECB Interest Rate decision and the following press conference.

Posted May 7th, 2014 by Charles Purdy

Euro weakens against sterling

The euro experienced a mixed start to the week yesterday as some generally positive data releases from the Eurozone failed to have any real impact upon the performance of the single currency. As a result, the euro strengthened slightly against a tumbling US dollar but weakened against a sterling that was buoyed by positive data coming from the UK Services sector. Eurozone data releases included Spanish unemployment figures, which showed a decrease of 100,000 in the number of unemployed people in the Southern European state, and Eurozone Retail Sales figures that showed a small increase in the total volume of monthly retail sales.

Posted May 6th, 2014 by Charles Purdy

ECB meets this week, “no change” is the expected outcome

Data releases from the Eurozone were similarly mixed on Friday and rate movements were seen in both directions due to the high volume of influential releases. Unemployment in the eighteen-nation bloc fell marginally to 11.9%, indicating higher levels of job creation than had been expected. Spanish manufacturing figures came through worse than expected, whilst output in Italy exceeded expectations. Data for both nations indicated growth. Later on in the day, the euro lost ground against the US dollar following positive US labour data but recovered towards the end of the day.

This week’s market chatter is likely to centre the European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest rate decision and the press conference that follows on Thursday.

Posted May 2nd, 2014 by Charles Purdy

Eurozone data undermines the euro against sterling

This week has been an eventful one in terms of data releases and rate changes relating to the single currency. The first significant movement in euro rates occurred on Tuesday following the release of key inflation data from Germany. Figures came through detailing an inflation rate of 1.1% in the Eurozone’s largest economy, 0.2% less than average expectations. This caused the eighteen-nation currency to weaken sharply against both the US dollar and sterling. On Wednesday, Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for the Eurozone as a whole also came through mildly worse than expected, but given the depreciation on the previous day, these figures were not badly received and put the euro back on an upward trajectory against most major currencies.

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