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Posted July 31st, 2014 by Charles Purdy

Key Eurozone inflation data to be released today

German inflation data came out almost exactly as expected yesterday, as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures were reported to be 0.3%. The single currency did not see any great movement against sterling, but continued to lose ground against the US dollar in response to a host of stronger data coming from the other side of the “pond”.

Further inflation figures are due out today in the form of the Flash CPI July estimate for the Eurozone at large. These figures are forecast to come out at around the 0.5% mark and have the potential to affect rate movements if different from expectations. Additionally, we expect an array of slightly less influential data sets from the Eurozone, including Eurozone unemployment figures. These indicated a level of 11.6% when released last month and are expected to remain around this level. Unemployment is another key indicator of the health of the economy and the Eurozone figures have remained well above those of the USA and the UK for some time due to the high levels of unemployment in its southern states.

If you are looking to buy or sell euros, we suggest contacting your trader now for live rates, news and currency-purchasing strategies.

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Posted July 30th, 2014 by Charles Purdy

German inflation data may well disappoint

Little data of note was released from the Eurozone yesterday and as a result movements in rates came largely as a result of events elsewhere. The single currency lost further ground against a resurgent US dollar, while seeing movements in both directions against sterling.

The most important data set out in the Eurozone today is set to be the Preliminary German Consumer Price Index (CPI). This is a key indicator of inflation from the largest economy in the eighteen-nation bloc and is forecast to come out around the 0.2% mark. This is still well below the 2% target set by the European Central Bank (ECB) which has been one of the main driving influences behind the euro’s weakness in 2014.

Posted July 29th, 2014 by Charles Purdy

Eurozone steady in difficult circumstances

The euro had a mixed Monday as it swung both ways against its major peers. Pressure still remains on the currency as there are few signs of Eurozone economic stabilisation any time soon with unemployment figures at nearly 12% and very low inflation at 0.5%. There were no large shifts for the euro yesterday as it awaits more important news, due later this week.

Today we see Business and Consumer confidence data from the Eurozone. Previously reported at -7.5, it is now forecast at -8.4. Results that are worse-than-forecast stand to have a significant impact on the euro. The Eurozone also sees more important data on Thursday, in the form of inflation and unemployment figures.

Posted July 28th, 2014 by Charles Purdy

Eurozone still underperforming

The Eurozone still has some significant problems and business confidence is stuttering. This was highlighted on Friday as the euro weakened against its major peers due to disappointing news from German businesses. The data from the IFO Index weakened to 108 in July from 109.7 in June and was worse than the forecast 109.4. One of the key reasons is the situation in Ukraine and the effect it is having on business morale on Germany and on the euro. The Eurozone could see more difficult times if tougher sanctions are imposed on Russia, and if the European Central Bank continues its aggressive stance on their monetary policy.

Posted July 25th, 2014 by Charles Purdy

Euro steady as Eurozone data is mixed

The euro has not been master of its own destiny for the better part of this week as a dearth of data from the eighteen-nation bloc has allowed events elsewhere to determine movements in euro rates. Investor activity caused the single currency to weaken against both sterling and the US dollar on Tuesday as it continues to be seen as an unattractive prospect. The ground lost against sterling was made good throughout Wednesday as the UK Monetary Policy Committee dampened hopes of an imminent UK interest hike.

Yesterday’s economic releases had a short-term effect on the euro as better-than-expected German manufacturing data caused some spikes in favour of the euro.

Posted July 24th, 2014 by Charles Purdy

Key Eurozone data released today

The euro made slight gains against sterling yesterday as hopes of an imminent interest rate hike in the UK were dampened by a unanimous vote against by the Monetary Policy Committee. As we saw little data of note from the Eurozone itself, there was little rate movement seen against the US dollar and euro performance against other currencies was largely determined by events elsewhere.

After what has been a quiet week on the data front, today offers some potentially influential releases. Flash Manufacturing data is expected from France and Germany, amongst other Eurozone states. The French data is expected to show moderate contraction in the sector, while the German figures are expected to show moderate growth.

Posted July 23rd, 2014 by Charles Purdy

Euro continues to be out of favour

The euro weakened against both sterling and the US dollar yesterday, not so much in response to any particular data release, but rather as investors and central banks continued to rally to the opinion that the single currency is an unattractive prospect at this point in time. European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi has kept his options open regarding more aggressive monetary policy, while the Bank of England and Federal Reserve have both given indications that they will be tightening monetary policy and raise interest rates at some point. This has caused the euro to weaken against other major currencies as investors look to move away from euro positions.

Posted July 22nd, 2014 by Charles Purdy

Euro steady pending key data later this week

Little movement was seen in euro rates yesterday given the absence of any data of note. German Producer Price Index (PPI) figures came out slightly lower than expected, but this data set generally has a more limited effect than another inflation indicator, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), so its impact was negligible.

We are not likely to see any events from the Eurozone having a huge impact on the strength of the single currency ahead of Thursday’s Manufacturing and Services data from a number of states within the eighteen-nation bloc. However, sharp movements in rates remain a possibility as events elsewhere, such as in Ukraine, continue to make their mark.

Posted July 21st, 2014 by Charles Purdy

Euro needs economic data to be supportive

The euro reached a landmark low on Friday as we saw it dip below €1.35 against the US dollar for the first time since February. As tensions in Ukraine escalated dramatically, the single currency breached the key technical level before recovering slightly.

This week, the key data releases are weighted towards the end of the week although we do have German inflation data being released today. French and German manufacturing data is set to be released on Thursday. French figures have been mixed over the last sixth months as have the German figures, although the German figures have at least shown consistent industry expansion.

Posted July 18th, 2014 by Charles Purdy

The euro struggles following Poor German data and fears over a Portuguese banking crisis

The euro struggled this week, falling to a 1 month low against the US dollar and dropping to the lowest point against sterling since the summer of 2012.

Fears escalated that we could be headed for a banking crisis in Portugal on Tuesday as a proportion of a €900million debt related to Banco Espirito Santo went unpaid; however, since then these fears have subsided. On the data front, worse-than-expected Industrial Production data combined with a poor German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey which came out at the lowest level since 2012 did little to help the euros slump.

Mario Draghi was speaking on Monday and stated that he felt a strong euro could put the Eurozone’s economic recovery at risk; however, he also made clear that the European Central Bank (ECB) does not have an exchange rate policy.

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