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Posted March 31st, 2015 by Charles Purdy

Euro weak due to continued Greek uncertainty

Just like sterling, the euro had a quiet start to the week. Talks between Greece and its creditors are on-going and are said to be upbeat, although lenders say it could take several more days before a list of measures and reforms are agreed. Germany released its inflation figures which showed that Germany had emerged from deflation after one month albeit only just.

Today we have the release of inflation figures for the Eurozone. Overall inflation is expected to show an improvement albeit still negative at -0.1% and core inflation steady at 0.7%. We also have the unemployment figures for the Eurozone released which are expected to be steady at 11.2%. Still very high, especially in the southern states. Hopefully it will start to come down as we see the benefits of the Eurozone quantitative easing programme begin to flow through.

The uncertain geo-political environment is still hampering the euro. Contact your trader to stay up to date with the latest developments and discuss currency buying strategies to manage this risk.

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Posted March 30th, 2015 by Charles Purdy

Yet another deadline for Greece

The Euro has been enjoying a renaissance over the last couple of weeks strengthening against the US dollar and sterling.

Today we have yet another meeting between the Greeks and their key lenders. Hopefully the list of reforms is close to being agreed as Greece is fast running out of money and desperately needs the next tranche of bailout funds.

Key data releases this week centre around inflation and employment. After February’s surprise reduction in deflation to -0.3%, expectations are for another improvement in March to -0.1%. Unemployment for the Eurozone is expected to hold at 11.2%.

Posted March 27th, 2015 by Charles Purdy

The Euro has an okay week

On Thursday, the Euro fell against a basket of currencies. European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi said the effect of the bond buying programme has been ‘significant’, and stated that the fall in long term interest rates have weakened the currency.

However, over the course of the week it has been positive for the euro as it strengthened universally. We seem to be a step closer to the Greek debt problem being sorted out (for the time being) and economic data out of the Eurozone has been positive and in some cases very positive. The important point to remember though is the ECB still wants the euro to be weak to boost export competiveness and when they want something they tend to get it.

Posted March 26th, 2015 by Charles Purdy

Euro also holds steady

Wednesday encouraged another step in the right direction for the euro as it gained against both sterling and the US dollar. This was largely due to negative data from the US and the UK, rather than from the euro; however IFO business climate data came out at 107.9, slightly better than the forecast figure of 107.3. IFO economist, Mr Brzeski, said “Strong growth in Quarter 4 of 2014, combined with low energy prices and the weak euro exchange rate have boosted confidence in the economy”. The European economy has also gained from lower oil prices, which in turn are giving German firms the much needed boost that the report mentioned.

Posted March 25th, 2015 by Charles Purdy

Euro calm for a day

The euro had a relatively quiet day on Tuesday, moving down to 1.09 against the dollar after strong US new home sales data (a strong underlying factor for inflation) bolstered the outlook for higher US interest rate – which we expect to happen later this year. The main data release for the single currency was the preliminary composite Eurozone Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) for March, which came out at 54.1, its highest reading since May 2011. This was in line with expectations, a positive sign for the region’s economies but had no real impact on the markets.

Today we have IFO business survey data, and this is forecast to improve from last month’s figure of 111.3 up to 112.

Posted March 24th, 2015 by Charles Purdy

The Euro continues to strengthen

The euro continued to strengthen. Economic data released yesterday was viewed as positive and the President of the European Central Bank made a speech which was well received. However, the key catalyst seems to have been the Federal Reserve meeting last week and the lack of clarity as to when US interest rates will rise which has undermined the US dollar and boosted the euro unexpectedly.

We have further important Eurozone economic data released today and this may well contrast favourably with the inflation data out the UK. So we shouldn’t be surprised if we see further euro strength today.

If you are looking to buy or sell euros, we suggest contacting your trader now for live rates, news and currency-purchasing strategies.

Posted March 23rd, 2015 by Charles Purdy

Can the euro maintain last week’s positivity?

It was a strong performance from the euro last week. Greek Prime Minster Alexis Tsipras assured European Union creditors at a summit in Brussels that the current coalition will present the necessary economic reforms to unlock further bailout funds to avoid bankruptcy. Uncertainty though still remains and there is a key meeting between the Greek Prime Minister and the German Chancellor today with the aim of resolving the funding impasse.

There are a raft of flash Eurozone Purchasing Manager Index figures for March released today and tomorrow. Progress has been positive over the last few months and the expectation is that this will continue to be the case.

Posted March 20th, 2015 by Charles Purdy

Somehow the euro has a good week!

The euro seemed to enjoy a good week especially against sterling, pulling back to well below the 1.40 level. As did sterling, the euro saw some rapid movement against the US dollar following the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday.
Although progress seems to be being made on the Greek debt there are always warning signs around the corner as the European Parliament President Martin Schulz warned that Greece’s financial situation was ‘dangerous’, with debt payments looming and still no deal agreed; only extended. There is European Central Bank (ECB) net investment flow data out at 10am today; otherwise, this day posts to be another quiet day in terms of euro data releases.

Posted March 19th, 2015 by Charles Purdy

The Euro continues to benefit from its “time in the sun”

The euro held steady against the dollar on Wednesday but gained strength against sterling although this was largely down to the Monetary Policy Committee minutes from the Bank of England (BoE), rather than from events within the Eurozone. The single currency remained solid throughout the day ahead of a US Federal Reserve monetary policy statement which was generally expected to provide a further view into the timing of an interest rate increase. The euro weakened across the board after the European Central Bank (ECB)started asset purchases under its quantitative easing program earlier this month but has slowly started to re-gain some of the lost ground.

Posted March 18th, 2015 by Charles Purdy

Euro – dependent on events elsewhere (for once)

The euro pushed higher against the US dollar and sterling on Tuesday after ZEW German business confidence data showed that economic sentiment had improved to the highest level in 13 months throughout March – however, a report on inflation in the Eurozone balanced out any real gains for the single currency. The ZEW business data said that German economic sentiment rose by 1.8 points to 54.8 this month in comparison to February’s figure of 53.0.

Today we have trade balance data out at 10am but otherwise a quiet day in terms of releases for the single currency. Therefore all eyes will be on this evenings Federal Reserve statement and how this will affect the euro.

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