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Posted August 14th, 2015 by Charles Purdy

Will the euro continue its positive streak?

It was a positive week in general for the euro as it made gains against sterling and the US dollar as a third and longer-term deal for Greece appeared to have been completed. Precise details on the bailout have not been confirmed but it was announced on Wednesday that a deal for an additional €86 billion euros had been confirmed. Given the looking deadline of 20th August for repaying the European Central Bank (ECB) over €3 billion this was much needed for the Eurozone, and should strengthen the currency in the long term.

There is plenty of data due today from the Eurozone.

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Posted August 13th, 2015 by Charles Purdy

Euro enjoys a respite, will it be brief?

The euro had a positive day across the board as it rose to two-week highs against the US dollar after China devalued the yuan for the second day running. Against sterling most of the damage was done in the early hours of the morning as the euro reached…

Posted August 12th, 2015 by Charles Purdy

Will the euro continue to ride this positive trend?

The euro strengthened throughout the day against sterling and gained ground slightly against the US dollar on Tuesday after an unexpected devaluation of the Chinese yuan affected the dollar’s overall performance and sterling weakened off throughout the day.

ZEW German business confidence came out as a mixed bag as economic sentiment fell to 25 when the forecast was 32, but current conditions came out at 65.7 which was better than the 64.3 forecast.

The single currency was also boosted by reports that Greece and its creditors had reached a longer term deal on what will be their third bailout. Greece narrowly avoided an exit from the Eurozone last month and now must repay €3.4 billion to the European Central Bank by the 20th August.

Posted August 11th, 2015 by Charles Purdy

Greece edging closer to a deal

It was a quiet day for the euro as it was almost unchanged against a strengthening US dollar and broadly weaker against sterling on Monday. The only real piece of news from the Eurozone was Greece’s move closer to a deal on a third bailout with its creditors, following talks over the weekend. Greece needs to secure a massive €86 billion ahead of the August 20 deadline to repay €3.4 billion to the European Central Bank (ECB); this would then finally alleviate some of the pressure that it is facing.

Today ZEW German business confidence data is released at 10am, which is forecast to improve from 63.9 to 64.4.

Posted August 10th, 2015 by Charles Purdy

A busy week for the euro

The euro saw mixed results last week, with the trend continuing on Friday after it strengthened against sterling throughout the day, reaching its highest point in the last two weeks. Early on Friday, Industrial production data from Germany and France turned out in the negative, but this was generally overlooked by investors.

This week is a busy one for the euro. On Tuesday morning we will see ZEW German business confidence data, which is likely to remain the same as last month’s figure of 63.9. Amy deviations from estimates could potentially cause movement for the euro.
Industrial production data for the Eurozone is out on Wednesday; given with last week’s poor figures from France and Germany, this is likely to be a disappointing figure on the whole.

Posted August 7th, 2015 by Charles Purdy

How will the euro wrap up a mixed week?

The euro’s mixed week against sterling and the euro was tempered by a positive day on Thursday. Forces outside of the Eurozone largely guided euro strength, with results of the Bank of England (BoE)’s Super Thursday upsetting expectations, with only one out of nine Monetary Policy Committee members voting for an interest rate hike, when two votes were expected.
The single currency also moved up throughout the day against the US dollar due to slightly disappointing unemployment figures from the US. As ever with Greece, the ongoing uncertainties regarding Greece’s attempt to secure debt restructuring in a third bailout deal has slowed the euro’s progression and continues to undermine the euro.

Posted August 6th, 2015 by Charles Purdy

Will the euro recoup its losses after a tough Wednesday?

It was another tough day for the euro on Wednesday as it slumped to two-week lows against sterling and the US dollar, weakening close to recent eight-year lows against sterling. Pressure on the single currency has been increased amid expectations that a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve in the coming months would prompt the Bank of England (BoE) to follow suit.

The euro wasn’t supported when disappointing retail sales were released in the morning, coming out in the negative at -0.6%, compared to the previous positive figure of 0.2% last month. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) figures for the Eurozone also fell in what was a disappointing day for the single currency.

Posted August 5th, 2015 by Charles Purdy

Euro sliding away

The euro was weaker against both the US dollar and sterling.

The spotlight in the Eurozone remains firmly on Greece. Athens said on Tuesday that it expects to conclude a bailout deal by August 18th, but with previous deadlines missed, this should be taken with a pinch of salt. The Greek stock market fell another 1.3% on Tuesday, after a record 16% drop on Monday.

Today we have a raft of services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data out of Europe, from Spain, Italy, France and Germany, as well as from the Eurozone as a whole. We will also see retail sales data in the morning, which is likely to worsen to a negative figure of -0.3% from a positive 0.2% last month.

Posted August 4th, 2015 by Charles Purdy

Slight gains for the euro against the US dollar

The euro made slight gains against the US dollar on Monday but had little to do with its own strength, instead benefitting from the release of disappointing US manufacturing and consumer spending data. Very little happened between sterling and the euro and it remained slightly in sterling’s favour.

There was, however, interesting news from Greece, where the stock exchange opened for the first time in five weeks and fell 23% once open, before recovering ever so slightly with banking shares being hit the hardest and loosing up to 30%. With Greek banks making up around 20% of the Greece index, this really hit the stock exchange the hardest, whilst Greek manufacturing also fell to record lows.

Posted August 3rd, 2015 by Charles Purdy

Greece takes a backseat as positive data boosts the euro

Monday was a positive day for the euro across the board, as it extended gains against the US dollar and moved over a cent against sterling in the morning. Impressive IFO German sentiment data, released at a figure of 108 in comparison to the forecast figure of 107.2, ensured that the single currency could enjoy its highest gains against the US dollar in two weeks.

Finally, the Greece scenario takes a backseat; formal talks between Greece and its creditors on a long-term bailout package began last night – these were expected to begin on Friday, but were delayed due to an agreement about where to have the meeting.

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