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Posted September 16th, 2015 by Charles Purdy

Downbeat German data weighed on the euro

The euro edged moderately lower against the dollar and stayed neutral against sterling on Tuesday, as downbeat data on German economic sentiment weighed in and American markets eagerly await for the Federal Reserve’s highly-anticipated policy statement due on Thursday. The euro struggled against the dollar, largely down to the ZEW economic sentiment index for Germany falling to 12.1 in September – dramatically down from August’s figure of 25.0 and against the forecast of 18.4 for this month.

Today inflation data will be released in the form of Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures. This forecast to improve from -0.6% back up to 0%.

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Posted September 15th, 2015 by Charles Purdy

Busier day for the euro today?

We had a fairly quiet Monday yesterday in terms of data releases, but the data that was released was, for the most part, positive. Eurozone Industrial Production figures were up 0.6% compared to -0.3% last month, a positive signal for the Euro. Having said this, the communal currency declined versus the majority of its traded peers, and the Euro Index (EUR-I) finished the day around 164.2, down from a 164.8 start. The cause of this downtrend can be attributed to traders’ fears of an overvalued Euro following the uptrend born of negative correlation with the US dollar. Many analysts expect the European Central Bank (ECB) will look to expand stimulus in hopes of normalising the currency to justifiable levels, and to encourage domestic inflation.

Posted September 14th, 2015 by Charles Purdy

Lots of Eurozone data and news this week, but the “real news” will come from the US

Friday was a busy day for Eurozone data. There was a surprise for Germany when the Wholesale Price Index (WPI), the measure of the price change of goods sold by wholesalers, came in at -0.8% against the forecast 0.2%. The French current account figure also failed to hit the mark; this was released at -€0.4 billion compared to the €0.6 billion expected, and much worse than the €0.8 billion for last month. Italy produced the greatest shock posting year on year growth of 2.7% (forecast to be 0.9% and a previous of -0.3%) in its Industrial Production Index, a measure of changes in output for the manufacturing, mining and utilities sector.

Posted September 11th, 2015 by Charles Purdy

Quiet week for the euro as it moves in line with sentiment from elsewhere

A mixed week for the euro has seen a resurgent performance against the US dollar, whilst making marginal losses versus sterling. A quiet start to the week for the euro saw German industrial production record 0.7% growth throughout August. Although this…

Posted September 10th, 2015 by Charles Purdy

Euro continues along the same trajectory

The euro managed to hold its own on Wednesday, with most of the news in the arena coming from elsewhere. Against its two major currency pairs, the single currency remained around the same level as Tuesday. Against sterling it strengthened due to poor manufacturing data from the UK but these gains were eradicated in the afternoon; compared to the US dollar it weakened slightly in the morning, amid fresh hopes for easing measures by the Bank of China were looking more likely.

With the week remaining muted for the euro, this morning we had very weak industrial production from France – showing a 0.8% drop, when 0.3% growth had been anticipated.

Posted September 9th, 2015 by Charles Purdy

Revised Eurozone growth figures do little to help boost the euro

Yesterday was another muted day for the euro as the only significant data releases consisted of revised growth figures for the Eurozone, which came out at 0.4%, slightly better than the forecasted 0.3%, and the trade balance data for Germany which came…

Posted September 8th, 2015 by Charles Purdy

Slight weakening against sterling the big news for the euro

Monday was an uneventful day for the euro, with the single currency weakening slightly against sterling and staying almost unchanged against the US dollar. The only major piece of data was German industrial production data; released early in the morning, this came out worse than expected at 0.7% (compared to the forecast 1%). This pushed the bar forward for the euro to slowly weaken against sterling as the day went on – although other than this, it was an extremely quiet day.

Tuesday is likely to be more eventful day however; Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be released this morning – and this is forecast to drop slightly from 0.4% to 0.3%.

Posted September 7th, 2015 by Charles Purdy

The question of QE for the euro

The euro strengthened slightly against sterling on Friday, but the only significant moment came from US non-farm payroll data, which weakened the euro slightly against the US dollar, before moving back to previous levels. German factory orders declined…

Posted September 4th, 2015 by Charles Purdy

ECB President talk weakens the euro

The euro had a mixed week, starting well but ending with a sharp fall against sterling and the US dollar on Thursday after the European Central Bank (ECB) hinted that it could expand its quantitative easing (QE) programme due to Europe’s inflation outlook, which is looking increasingly likely to deflationary levels.

On Thursday afternoon, ECB President Mario Draghi said the current QE program provides sufficient flexibility to adjust the size and duration of the programme. The ECB also held its main interest rate at the 0.05% level, and lowered its growth and inflation forecasts, blaming this on falling oil prices and disappointing growth in China.

Posted September 3rd, 2015 by Charles Purdy

Will euro pull back yesterday’s losses today?

It was a disappointing day for the euro as it lost ground against sterling and the US dollar as a data-free day gave no support to the single currency. However, the losses were limited, given that the global economy still very wary over the slowing growth in China – this has helped boost the euro over the past week and a half.

We expect a busy day for the euro as French unemployment data is being released, with the previous month’s figure coming out a fairly high 10.3%. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) due from the Eurozone at 9am this morning is likely to increase slightly from July’s figure, up to 54.1 from 53.9.

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