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Posted November 10th, 2014 by Charles Purdy

This week’s Eurozone data unlikely to support the euro

After a busy week, Friday was a relatively quiet day for the euro on Friday with no significant data releases bar a couple of monthly figures out of France, which came mainly in line with forecast. Despite this, we saw the single currency log understated gains throughout the day against sterling and the US dollar, suggesting it had been oversold on Thursday following comments by the President of the European Central Bank (ECB), Mario Draghi.

The week ahead looks to be a quieter one than last, with few releases particularly over the next couple of days. On Wednesday we have industrial production data for the Eurozone, and on Friday we have a raft of growth figures from the member states. Expect Friday’s figures to hold the most sway but expectations are set very low as everyone knows the state of the Eurozone economy is dire.

If you are looking to buy or sell euros, we suggest contacting your trader now for live rates, news and currency-purchasing strategies.

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Posted November 4th, 2014 by Charles Purdy

Eurozone data still in the doldrums

A relatively uneventful day for the euro yesterday saw it hold flat or drift slightly lower against its two most-traded peers – the British pound and the US dollar. A raft of Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures from the services sector came in largely in line with forecasts. The Italian release was the only real disappointment, with the figures illustrating that the industry had shrunk month-on-month.

Looking forward to today, we have Spanish employment change data coming out this morning. Although the figures are viewed as a somewhat lagging indicator, they are a good signal of overall economic conditions, with the labour market being closely linked with consumer spending.

Posted October 30th, 2014 by Charles Purdy

How will today’s and tomorrow’s Eurozone data effect the euro?

Yesterday was another unremarkable day for the euro until the US Federal Reserve meeting announcement late last night which caused the euro to fall very quickly against the US dollar, as the spectre of rising US interest rates increased.

Today promises to have more local influences with European data coming thick and fast over the next 48 hours. Out of Germany today we have inflation and unemployment data, and out of Spain we have inflation and growth data. There is a lot of uncertainty towards the releases; forecasts are wide-ranging as recent releases have been very inconsistent. As a result, we could see some significant movements in euro markest today, with the possibility of some unexpected releases.

Posted October 15th, 2014 by Charles Purdy

Euro slightly less ugly than sterling

The euro lost out against the majority of its peers yesterday, bar a very weak sterling, with a combination of factors weighing on the 18-nation currency. Industrial production figures for the region showed a contraction, coming in at -1.8% which was below forecast and almost 3% down on the previous month’s release.

This was followed by German economic sentiment data, which, following a run of worrying data from the Eurozone’s talismanic economy, was not expected to come in anywhere near last month’s result of 6.9 (anything above 0.0 illustrates positive sentiment). However, few had forecast it to come in as low as it did (a worrying -3.6) and as a result, further pressure was put on the euro.

Posted October 13th, 2014 by Charles Purdy

When will the ECB act effectively?

A relatively uneventful week for the euro was concluded in a similar vein on Friday, with the single currency holding relatively flat against its two main peers, sterling and the US dollar. Following on from Thursday’s European Central Bank (ECB) statement, President Mario Draghi was quoted on Friday saying that the ECB remains ‘unanimous in its commitment to using additional and unconventional tools in its mandate’ in an attempt to stimulate some growth into the region and also avoid deflation.

Looking forward to this week, it’s set to be a busy week on data releases. Tomorrow we have industrial production and economic sentiment figures from the region, and on Friday we have the bloc’s monthly inflation level, which will be closely scrutinised.

Posted October 8th, 2014 by Charles Purdy

Euro “survives” poor German data

More worrying data from Germany yesterday weighed on the single currency yesterday, with industrial production figures being released in the morning. The figures have not historically carried much sway on the value of the euro, but coming in a significant 5.6% down on the previous month, and off the back of Monday’s poor German data, they were enough for the euro to have a wholly uninspiring morning session. Despite the euro recovering against its main peers, the British pound and the US dollar, the figures further underscored the risk of an economic slowdown.

It puts further pressure on the European Central Bank to widen economic stimulus measures.

Posted October 6th, 2014 by Charles Purdy

Eurozone data needs to improve if the Euro is the strengthen

After taking some strength on Thursday in response to comments made by European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi, Friday saw the euro eradicate the majority of its gains. The faltering European economy once again undermined the single currency as services industry figures for the Eurozone came in below forecast, dropping to a 10-month low, with many areas showing quarterly industry contraction. Most worrying were France and Italy, the bloc’s second and third largest economies, which both showed a significant shrinkage.

Today and tomorrow we have German industrial data released which will be very carefully scrutinized in an attempt to gauge the true extent of economic problems in this all powerful state.

Posted September 25th, 2014 by Charles Purdy

Poor data put the Euro under pressure

The euro had a tough time yesterday, dropping below 1.28 against the US dollar for the first time in 14 months as German business confidence figures came in below forecast. The single currency dropped off against the majority of its 31 most-traded peers, with speculation in the market growing that European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi will look to further stimulus measures over the coming months. To add insult to injury, Barclays aggressively lowered their 12-month forecast for the euro-US dollar pairing from 1.25 to 1.10 – indicating how negative sentiment is amongst traders and further pushing down the value of the currency.

Posted September 22nd, 2014 by Charles Purdy

ECB policies will put the euro under pressure

Following the results of the Scottish vote on independence on Friday we saw the euro eliminate all gains it had achieved the previous week, dropping back to two-year lows against sterling and 14-month lows against the US dollar. The outlook seems increasingly bleak now for the single currency, as its two most significant peers look to be strengthening further.

Against sterling, the medium-term upside is difficult to predict, but a few forecasters are suggesting we could push through 1.30 before 2015. Eyes will be on this afternoon’s speech from European Central Bank Governor (ECB) Mario Draghi. Traders will be looking for hints from Draghi surrounding any plans for quantitative easing, with bonds and asset-back securities purchases rumoured, given the poor uptake by the banks of the ECB’s cheap loans last week.

Posted September 19th, 2014 by Charles Purdy

Euro suffers heavy losses against sterling

The euro started off relatively flat at the start of the week but suffered heavy losses against sterling following the Scots decision to reject independence.

There was some data released with German Economic Sentiment figures coming in above forecast whilst the European Central Bank put a large emphasis on the significance of waning inflation levels across the bloc. The yearly Eurozone inflation figure of 0.4% was released on Wednesday afternoon and, although still worryingly low, came in above the forecasted figure of 0.3%, which provided some respite. However, the market’s reaction to this data was relatively muted with the weeks focus on the Scottish referendum for independence (which came out overnight).

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