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Posted October 31st, 2014 by Charles Purdy

Euro suffers as data broadly disappointing

It was a relatively quiet start to the week for the Eurozone, with the majority of data out Thursday and today. Thursday saw weaker-than-expected Inflation figures for both Spain and Germany. The only positives for the week were Spanish growth figures coming out as expected, and the fall in German unemployment – which may lead to a positive outlook for Eurozone unemployment data out today. Germany, the Eurozone’s powerhouse, has been under the spotlight recently with less than impressive figures over the past few weeks, as well as talk that they may need to lower their tax revenue forecast due to weakening economic conditions.

This morning we may experience a busy day for the euro. With German retail sales and French consumer spending figures both forecasted to come out weaker than the previous month, any surprises could cause significant shifts in euro markets. The main focus be on the Eurozone’s inflation figures as well as on the unemployment rate. Out of the spotlight recently, Greece may see themselves in more trouble. Prime Minister Antonis Samaras has until February to pull together a supermajority in the national parliament to elect a new president. Failure to do so will allow the anti-bailout opposition parties to force a snap election.

If you are looking to buy or sell euros, we suggest contacting your trader now for live rates, news and currency-purchasing strategies.

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Posted October 30th, 2014 by Charles Purdy

How will today’s and tomorrow’s Eurozone data effect the euro?

Yesterday was another unremarkable day for the euro until the US Federal Reserve meeting announcement late last night which caused the euro to fall very quickly against the US dollar, as the spectre of rising US interest rates increased.

Today promises to have more local influences with European data coming thick and fast over the next 48 hours. Out of Germany today we have inflation and unemployment data, and out of Spain we have inflation and growth data. There is a lot of uncertainty towards the releases; forecasts are wide-ranging as recent releases have been very inconsistent. As a result, we could see some significant movements in euro markest today, with the possibility of some unexpected releases.

Posted October 15th, 2014 by Charles Purdy

Euro slightly less ugly than sterling

The euro lost out against the majority of its peers yesterday, bar a very weak sterling, with a combination of factors weighing on the 18-nation currency. Industrial production figures for the region showed a contraction, coming in at -1.8% which was below forecast and almost 3% down on the previous month’s release.

This was followed by German economic sentiment data, which, following a run of worrying data from the Eurozone’s talismanic economy, was not expected to come in anywhere near last month’s result of 6.9 (anything above 0.0 illustrates positive sentiment). However, few had forecast it to come in as low as it did (a worrying -3.6) and as a result, further pressure was put on the euro.

Posted October 8th, 2014 by Charles Purdy

Euro “survives” poor German data

More worrying data from Germany yesterday weighed on the single currency yesterday, with industrial production figures being released in the morning. The figures have not historically carried much sway on the value of the euro, but coming in a significant 5.6% down on the previous month, and off the back of Monday’s poor German data, they were enough for the euro to have a wholly uninspiring morning session. Despite the euro recovering against its main peers, the British pound and the US dollar, the figures further underscored the risk of an economic slowdown.

It puts further pressure on the European Central Bank to widen economic stimulus measures.

Posted October 2nd, 2014 by Charles Purdy

Key ECB meeting today, how will it affect the euro?

Manufacturing industry figures from across the Eurozone released yesterday morning further highlighted the problems that the region faces. Most worrying were the figures out of Germany – the bloc’s flagship economy – which released a figure of 49.9 (anything below 50 represents an industry contraction). The overall figure for the bloc came in at 50.3, marginally outperforming the figures from the German economy.

The data bolstered the case for the European Central Bank (ECB) to turn to stimulus measures in order to inject some life into the region’s economy; as such, eyes will be on the ECB conference this afternoon. Many are calling for more aggressive bond-buying techniques from the ECB, such as those adopted by the US Federal Reserve and other central banks over the last 24 months.

Posted October 1st, 2014 by Charles Purdy

Euro under pressure as Eurozone economy falters

It was another difficult day for the euro, with a handful of data releases providing further evidence of the bloc’s worsening economic conditions. German retail sales figures came in above forecast, but these coincided with significantly worse-than-forecast unemployment figures. Later yesterday morning we had the consumer price inflation figures for the entire Eurozone which came in at 0.3%, which was as forecast but worryingly low. As a result, the euro fell to two-year lows against the US dollar, and came very close to six-year lows against sterling.

The European Central Bank meets tomorrow, with many forecasters predicting a move towards more aggressive stimulus measures, which will likely further push down the euro’s value.

Posted September 25th, 2014 by Charles Purdy

Poor data put the Euro under pressure

The euro had a tough time yesterday, dropping below 1.28 against the US dollar for the first time in 14 months as German business confidence figures came in below forecast. The single currency dropped off against the majority of its 31 most-traded peers, with speculation in the market growing that European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi will look to further stimulus measures over the coming months. To add insult to injury, Barclays aggressively lowered their 12-month forecast for the euro-US dollar pairing from 1.25 to 1.10 – indicating how negative sentiment is amongst traders and further pushing down the value of the currency.

Posted September 22nd, 2014 by Charles Purdy

ECB policies will put the euro under pressure

Following the results of the Scottish vote on independence on Friday we saw the euro eliminate all gains it had achieved the previous week, dropping back to two-year lows against sterling and 14-month lows against the US dollar. The outlook seems increasingly bleak now for the single currency, as its two most significant peers look to be strengthening further.

Against sterling, the medium-term upside is difficult to predict, but a few forecasters are suggesting we could push through 1.30 before 2015. Eyes will be on this afternoon’s speech from European Central Bank Governor (ECB) Mario Draghi. Traders will be looking for hints from Draghi surrounding any plans for quantitative easing, with bonds and asset-back securities purchases rumoured, given the poor uptake by the banks of the ECB’s cheap loans last week.

Posted September 19th, 2014 by Charles Purdy

Euro suffers heavy losses against sterling

The euro started off relatively flat at the start of the week but suffered heavy losses against sterling following the Scots decision to reject independence.

There was some data released with German Economic Sentiment figures coming in above forecast whilst the European Central Bank put a large emphasis on the significance of waning inflation levels across the bloc. The yearly Eurozone inflation figure of 0.4% was released on Wednesday afternoon and, although still worryingly low, came in above the forecasted figure of 0.3%, which provided some respite. However, the market’s reaction to this data was relatively muted with the weeks focus on the Scottish referendum for independence (which came out overnight).

Posted September 15th, 2014 by Charles Purdy

Euro holding steady as focus seems to be elsewhere

The euro held firm on Friday, bringing to a close what was relatively flat week for the single currency. Comments made by central bank governing member Luc Coene on Friday highlighted policy makers’ ambivalence towards the weakening euro, suggesting that, if anything, they welcomed it. A weaker currency would likely stimulate growth in the region and curb the drop in inflation, as the relative cost of exports decreases – thereby attracting foreign investment.

Looking forward to this week we have German economic sentiment data out tomorrow, and on Wednesday we will see yearly inflation figures for the European bloc.

If you are looking to buy or sell euros, we suggest contacting your trader now for live rates, news and currency-purchasing strategies.

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