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Posted February 22nd, 2016 by Charles Purdy

Will the US achieve better economic data?

We experienced additional US dollar movement on Friday, mainly dictated by sterling in the morning as well as the positive US Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures in the afternoon, the latter an indicator of inflation.

This week looks set to be busier as it progresses, with minimal data releases on Monday and Tuesday, and a small decrease in consumer confidence expected on Tuesday. Durable Goods Orders and the weekly unemployment claims are due for release on Thursday, with both expecting to post better-than-expected figures.

Investors will be keeping a keen eye on Friday however, with preliminary growth figures, as well as figures on Personal Spending and Personal Income. The latter two are both expected to have improved from the previous month’s figures, with Personal Spending due to fall more in line with income. However, given the recent spate of discouraging news from the US, any disappointments in data levels could potentially cause the US dollar to weaken.

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Posted February 19th, 2016 by Charles Purdy

US reticence on interest rate hike

With sterling dictating most of the currency movements this week, US dollar investors were keen to see the results of Wednesday’s US Federal Reserve meeting, hoping for further insight into how likely the Federal Reserve deems another interest rate rise in the short term. The meeting minutes highlighted caution, citing the continuing slump in oil price, concerns regarding the performance of the stock exchange and the Chinese economy. Because of these three issues, the central bank gave no idea of when the next rate hike may take place, advising, instead, that it would be too early to decide on a potential rise in March. With minimal data releases, Thursday was also a key day with the weekly unemployment data, which posted yet another stable figure.

Following the cautious comments from the Federal Reserve, we can look forward to inflation data in the form of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) today, with the expectation that there will be no movement on the negative figure we saw last month. This is a key data set that has been struggling globally due to the drop in oil price.

Posted February 18th, 2016 by Charles Purdy

Spotlight on the US Federal Reserve meeting

It was a more positive day for the US dollar on Wednesday, even with the movements being dictated once again by sterling. Positivity surrounded the US dollar as the Producer Price Index (PPI) – an indicator of inflation – saw growth against expectation, posting its first positive figure in two months. Meanwhile, industrial production grew better than expected with its first positive figure in six months.

However the spotlight remained on the US Federal Reserve meeting minutes released late in the day. They were in line with expectations highlighting the uncertainty arising from the weak oil price, the poor performance of stock markets worldwide and concerns over the Chinese economy. The minutes made it clear that conditions had changed from those that existed in December when they increased interest rates but it also said it was too early to determine the impact these problems would have on the US economy and their ability to raise interest rates again this year. Wait and see seems to be the message.

We are expecting minimal data releases today with weekly unemployment claims due, which are expected to show another stable figure. However, the dollar still faces risk from an economy that is under potential recessionary pressure, and its strength could still be tested today.

If you are looking to buy or sell US dollars, we suggest contacting your trader now for live rates, news and currency-purchasing strategies.

Posted February 17th, 2016 by Charles Purdy

Spotlight on the US Federal Reserve

After a quiet day for US data, and the dollar’s main movement seen dictated by sterling once again, investors will be pleased to see Producer Price Index (PPI) data – a measurement of inflation – and industrial production figures due out today. Inflation is expected to remain flat and industrial production set to show growth for the first time in six months.

The main release will not be until the evening, with the US Federal Reserve Meeting minutes. Any comments made regarding interest rate decisions will have an impact. Any further comments from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen on the recessionary possibilities for the US economy could cause trouble for the US currency.

If you are looking to buy or sell US dollars, we suggest contacting your trader now for live rates, news and currency-purchasing strategies.

Posted February 16th, 2016 by Charles Purdy

Relative silence from the US until Federal Reserve minutes mid-week

With the US enjoying President’s Day and no data releases on Monday, market attention will soon turn to what news we can expect from the US later in the week. With minimal data releases today, we look forward to the US Federal Reserve minutes due to be released on Wednesday evening. Investors will be keeping a keen eye out for any interest rate focused comments coming out of these minutes, after being left underwhelmed by Federal Reserve Chair Yellen’s testimonial comments last week, which, along with poor new job data, have fuelled speculation that the US dollar could weaken later in 2016. It appears highly unlikely that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in its March meeting, and current predictions for rate rises are at around 50 percent of Decembers expectations for the remainder of the year, offering little support for the US dollar, although the currency currently remains strong against sterling and the euro, its major counterparts.

The US dollar’s fortunes appear mixed in the coming weeks and months – contact your trader today to ensure you have the most up to date rates and market development information to help you plan your currency strategy.

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